There has been a lot of change over the past couple of days, but one change that could have happened is now off the table, so we’ll speak about that first.
Zach Werenski
Simply put, it’s best for the Columbus Blue Jackets to hang on to Werenski until at least next summer. His full NMC changes to a 10 team trade list at that time, which means they can trigger a bidding war between 10 teams, rather than a select few approved teams, which is what was happening at this time.
It’s been well reported now that the Dallas Stars offered a package that included Thomas Harley, which was nixed by Werenski himself. It’s his right to deny a trade to any destination that he isn’t fond of and he decided that moving his family to Dallas wasn’t for him. Fair enough.
That left just two teams on his approved list of destinations, Toronto and Tampa Bay. It doesn’t take a scholar to look through the Lightning’s roster and depth chart only to come to the conclusion that they had very little of value to offer for the Norris Trophy winning defenseman. Their valuable NHL players have trade protection, while their prospect pool is very thin due to being competitive for so long. The players they have that are without trade protection simply didn’t hold the value that would convince Columbus to pull the trigger on any trade.
I can see that and I’m just a knucklehead with an opinion, so you can bet that GM John Chayka saw exactly the same thing.
That’s what lead to the Leafs’ refusal to include Matthew Knies in any trade for Werenski. Instead, it’s presumed that they offered some type of package that may have included Easton Cowan, Ben Danford, lower end prospects and future picks (Colorado’s 1st in 2027, for example). While the Leafs put a package together that would beat what Tampa has to offer, it still wouldn’t be the type of return you’d expect for a defender of Werenski’s caliber. Again, he is the reigning Norris Trophy Winner. The end result? Columbus and Werenski pulled back from the trade circus and will stick it out for at least one more year.
This is what I believe to be true, anyway.
What else do I believe to be true? If John Chayka had been willing to include Matthew Knies in the trade, Zach Werenski would be a Toronto Maple Leaf right now. Can I (or anybody?) confirm that? Absolutely not. Don Waddell himself would have to say that in order to know for sure, but it sure does make sense. Do with that storyline what you will, but for me it’s a double edged sword. I am a huge fan of Matthew Knies and will be absolutely thrilled if he retires a Leaf many years from now. On the other hand, the best defender in the world never becomes available, so if they do and if they want to join your team, you should JUMP to make that happen. We’ll never know exactly how close the Leafs came to getting Werenski, but by all accounts the ship has sailed, because by this time next year you can rest assured that if he is on the market again, somebody will step up with more than the Leafs can offer.
Nick Paul
One trade that the team did manage to make was acquiring Nick Paul in exchange for Dennis Hildeby, a 3rd and a 4th round pick.
I’m going to call this one a mixed bag of emotions for me.
I’ve been a big fan of Paul’s since his time in Ottawa. He’s a big dude (6’4″ 235lbs), he can produce offense, he is good on the draw and responsible defensively. He’ll drop the gloves if the situation calls for it (like if your Captain takes an extremely dirty knee on knee hit), but he’s not as proficient in that area as you would like him to be. However, it’s not always how you do when you dance, many times it matters more that you’re willing to step onto the dance floor in the first place. He’s that type of character guy that you want in the dressing room and on the ice and that is about to be a theme throughout this conversation.
What I don’t like is the timing of this acquisition. Paul showed some offensive upside when he was in Ottawa, but that really took off when he landed with the Tampa Bay Lightning. He posted 14pts in 21 games after he was acquired at the 2022 trade deadline, then added 9pts in 23 playoff games. Over the next 3 seasons he posted 32, 46 and 41pt campaigns, making his $3.15M caphit look like a steal for the Lightning. Then this past season his point totals dropped to 15pts in 51 games to go along with a -15 +/- rating. While +/- is a flawed stat, it is telling that he ranked dead last on the team. Most of his shifts started outside of the offensive zone, of course, but the numbers are still not encouraging to me.
Needless to say, this feels like they traded for a player that is passed his prime. My hope is that he can enjoy a bounce back season (or 3), where he can post 35+ points and have a positive impact on the play.
I’m also not all that happy that they moved on from Dennis Hildeby in this particular deal. While I would have understood if they moved Hildeby in a package for a top 6 forward or top 4 defender, it’s the fact that Paul could look like a salary dump as soon as October that has me questioning the move. Aside from the fact that he may have been moved for a complete flop of a player, I’ve liked Hildeby since they drafted the towering goaltender. He has done nothing but get progressively better since they took him in the 4th round of the 2022 NHL Entry Draft and it appears that he is ready to be a full time backup at the NHL level.
I also understand that the team has Artur Akhtyamov in the AHL, who just backstopped the Marlies to a Calder Cup Championship. In doing so he made dealing Hildeby a lot easier for the organization. However, goalies get hot at times, but goalies also cool down. From John Chayka’s point of view he simply entered the organization to see a goalie completely on fire, take the net for himself and lead that team to a championship. The judgement was made based on the best play of one goalie, instead of a steady judgement of their years of work. At least that’s how it feels to me.
Will Hildeby ever be anything more than an NHL backup? Maybe, maybe not, only time will tell. But the potential is there to be more than that, especially considering his young age in goaltender years.
Likewise, will Akhtyamov ever be a backup and/or starting goalie in the NHL? We have no way of telling without waiting, but this does feel like a Justin Pogge/Tuukka Rask type of situation, where one goalie was chosen as the keeper based solely on a short performance.
In short, I just feel that his could be one of those trades that haunts the Leafs for years While I wasn’t against trading Hildeby, it just feels as if he was used to acquire an imperfect target in order to fast track the new regime’s plans, which could be a recipe for disaster in and of itself.
Colton Sissons
That brings us to another player that we’ll hope can outproduce what he did last year. With just 11pts in 66 games for the Vegas Golden Knights, followed by 8pts in 22 playoff games, Sissons’ $4.25M caphit took many by surprise. Luckily, he has been a much better point producer historically.
With that said, man is this a great addition to the team. Sissons plays the game of hockey like you want your bottom 6 forwards to play. He started a paltry 21.6% of his shifts in the offensive zone last season, won 56.5% of his faceoffs, helped the Knights’ penalty kill and brought energy to the ice every shift through his physical, determined game. The pivot away from having Nicholas Robertson, Matias Maccelli and other smaller, skilled forwards in the bottom six, to having these bigger and still fast players slotted in will be one that should pay dividends. The kicker? Players like Sissons, Paul and Blueger can still potentially produce as much offense in these roles than some of their “skilled” predecessors. While we do need to hope for some rebound performances and some chemistry, these players lean into the physical game and enjoy playing that role.
If nothing else, this coming season will be more fun to watch.
Brandon Duhaime
8 fights last season, 10 the season before that, 7 the season before that… Duhaime enjoys the physicality side of hockey for sure. He’s fast, he’s a pain in the ass on the forecheck, he’ll block shots, can play on the penalty kill and he’s going to do all of that with a smile on his face.
I know there’s been a heavy dose of negativity so far, but this is a much heavier, much faster team and this addition is going to remind Leafs Nation what a 4th line player is supposed to look like.
Teddy Blueger
This signing was met with some mixed reviews, but it gets a thumbs up from this pucker. I’ve liked Blueger for a while now. Once again he’s a player that can help your penalty kill, which was obviously a major theme on the day. His faceoff numbers were down last year, but he’s historically solid on the draw. He isn’t as physical as the other additions, but he has a pretty good offensive game to go along with being responsible defensively. He’s a playmaking centre that, once again, started just 27.8% of his shifts in the offensive zone, which shows that his coaches trust him to play on the defensive side of the game. This was low key one of the better signing’s of the day, as Blueger is a fantastic 3-4C and has built in chemistry with Dakota Joshua from their time in Vancouver.
Zack MacEwen
I’m not convinced that MacEwen will spend a ton of time in the NHL. He may just get called up to play against Florida. However, he’s a tough customer and he moves well for a big man. There’s not a lot to say about this one other than the Leafs needed more NHL ready toughness in the system and they got just that.
Jack Roslovic
The Roslovic signing was also met with mixed reviews. While I was hoping for some major help in the top 6, Roslovic is the closest they came to that and I feel that they came up short. With that said, he has scored 21 and 22 goals over the past two NHL campaigns and is historically at, or around, the 40pt mark. He’s a middle six player that can play down the middle if needed. The hope here is that he can find chemistry somewhere on the roster and produce like everyone hoped he would when he was selected in the 1st round of the 2015 NHL Entry Draft. The real question on everybody’s mind is where does he fit on the roster exactly?
Maybe the fact that the he could play anywhere from lines 1-3 and at wing or centre is exactly the reason that they signed him in the first place.
Where Do They Go From Here?
The two players that I’ve wondered the most about over the past few weeks are Morgan Rielly and Dakota Joshua. Today, this hit the waiver wire…
We’ll start with Dakota Joshua.
To me Joshua actually fits into the teams direction for their bottom 6, at least somewhat. He’s big, physical and can add some offense, but what he’s really missing is foot speed. Joshua isn’t very fast and will have trouble keeping up to the pace of the new recruits. For that reason it doesn’t surprise me that he is on the trade block. The question for me is if anybody will take him. When Brad Treliving acquired Joshua I immediately felt as if they traded for a cap dump and, while the price wasn’t high, actually paid a price for one. If Chayka can recoup anything of value I’ll count it as a win, but I do feel that he is in for a rough ride if he stays in Toronto. Waivers is a possibility but I honestly feel as if, due to his contract, no team will pick him up for free.
Running an NHL team is a cut throat business and by all accounts Joshua is a fantastic person. So while his play and personality may not warrant it, I do wonder if he’s AHL bound next season. Again, this will be a wait and see type of deal, as a team that is pushing for the cap floor may take a flyer on him. For his sake I hope that’s true.
As for Morgan Rielly, I’m not overly surprised that he hasn’t been moved yet. What I am surprised about is the complete lack of interest. While I knew his contract was always going to be a hard one to move, the fact that the only team that has reportedly shown interest is the San Jose Sharks is disappointing. What’s also disappointing is knowing that Mario Ferraro wanted to join the Leafs but John Chayka’s insistence that Rielly isn’t a cap dump (which he’s now said numerous times) basically cost them the addition of a solid 2nd pair defender for nothing. If they move on from Rielly now, they really don’t have a lot of options on the free agent market to pivot to, so whats the play?
For my money, the best defender left on the open market is Logan Stanley. I have continuously stated that I’d love the addition of Stanley due to his size, physicality and ability to play a solid 17 minutes a night. However, Stanley on your 3rd pair is great, but asking him to do too might is a recipe for disaster. Would you be comfortable with Darren Raddysh, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Jake McCabe and a questionably healthy Chris Tanev as your top 4? With Stanley and Troy Stecher as your 3rd pair you’re not exactly hurting, but a legitimate top 4 defender such as Ferraro would have really brought the defense group together in my opinion.
For what it’s worth, I’d still be happy to add Stanley, especially for those games against the Florida Panthers. However, if they move Rielly for nothing then you know it means Chayka misread the trade market, which forced them to miss out on Ferraro, just as he misread the trade scenario with Columbus, which resulted in their missing out on Zach Werenski.
Defense wins championships and it appears that John Chayka is another GM in a long list of Maple Leafs GM’s that don’t believe in that concept.