Has the time to move on from Rielly passed John Chayka by?
In my opinion, yes.
That’s not to say that GM John Chayka isn’t still trying to move the longest tenured Leaf on the roster, but it is me saying that at this point in the season it’s rare for big contracts to move from one team to another.
The rumours circled around San Jose, a team that Rielly was reportedly willing to go to, for quite a while. However, the Sharks traded for Darnell Nurse and his $9.25M caphit, while also signing Jacob Trouba to a 4 year deal with an $8.25M AAV. You can include Michael Kesselring and his new $4.5M caphit into the mix, while Dmitri Orlov has been retained from last season. While that isn’t exactly a top 4 that you can include among the best in the league, it’s also not one that Morgan Rielly would make all that much better. I could easily envision the Sharks looking to make a deal that would upgrade their blueline, but I simply can’t imagine them viewing Rielly as the player to do that.
From there some pointed towards the Anaheim Ducks as a potential suitor. Once again, the assumption is that Rielly would be willing to go to California to play hockey (who wouldn’t?), but now that the Philadelphia Flyers have tendered an offer sheet to Leo Carlsson to the tune of $18M per season, it’s unknown how the Ducks’ cap situation is going to play out. With Carlsson signed they have approximately $17M in capspace to deal with, while Cutter Gauthier and Pavel Mintyukov are key members of their team that still need to be re-signed (I haven’t been able to write in a few days, Mintyukov has since signed a deal with a $7.2M caphit). You can assume that Gauthier will eat up a ton of that capspace, but even if they squeezed both players for every penny they could, the idea of moving Rielly there without the Ducks sending money back is very unlikely. One player that I would have interest in adding if I were Chayka would be Alex Killorn, who carries a $6.25M caphit for one more year. He isn’t the player he was when he signed that contract, but he has been a steady ~35pt point player that can move around your lineup with ease. He holds a 15 team no-trade list and it’s unknown if the Halifax, Nova Scotia native would be willing to join a Canadian team.
I am certain that the Ducks would prefer to move away from Frank Vatrano and his $4.57M caphit though. A deal that includes Vatrano would be risky, as he had just 9pts in 50 games last season. He produced 41, 60 and 45pt season’s the years prior, which means a bounce-back campaign isn’t out of the question, but if he doesn’t return to form then you’re obviously stuck with his caphit for 2 more seasons. That wouldn’t be the end of the world, but it sure would be nice to be without a cap anchor for the time being. On the Ducks side of that, even moving on from Vatrano for Rielly, which would add $3M to their cap could be more than they’re willing to consider right now.
Toronto needs to open some space in any trade, while the Ducks may be up against the ceiling as well, so any trade may be difficult from the perspective of both sides. If the Ducks refuse to match the Flyers offer sheet this can be revisited.
Sticking with the California theme, it’s been said that the Los Angeles Kings may also be a possible landing spot for Morgan. This is a rumour (maybe less of a rumour and more speculation?) that I do wonder about considering the fact that the Kings former GM, Rob Blake, parted ways with the Kings last spring and is now the VP of Hockey Operations with the Nashville Predators. Blake brought in a large contingent of the current Kings blueline, which is something their new GM, Ken Holland, may want to adjust. While Drew Doughty and Brandt Clarke are locks to stay in LA, with Cody Ceci and Brian Dumoulin also being additions made by Holland, Mike Anderson and Joel Edmundson were obtained or retained by Blake. Anderson has only ever played for the Kings, as he was a 4th round pick of theirs back in 2017, but Joel Edmundson is somebody that could be moved, in theory. The Kings blueline isn’t brimming with offense. Clarke (40pts last season) was the only blueliner in LA to produce over 23pts last season, which makes adding Rielly a real possibility. Lastly, Ken Holland hasn’t always been known to make the popular choices as GM, which means taking a risk on Rielly isn’t something I’d put past him.
There’s only one real issue with LA and that’s the fact that they have less than $2M in cap space, according to puckpedia.com. Once again, this is a situation that would involve a money in-money out deal for both teams. That scenario wouldn’t allow the Leafs to simply move Rielly for capspace. Instead they’d have to take about $5.7M worth of players back in any deal. Joel Edmundson would cover $3.85M of that amount, but I do find it difficult to believe that Edmundson would be somebody that Chayka would accept in return. He would slow the blueline down, which is something the new regime has been very much against in the early stages of their time here. They would likely ask for a player such as former Leaf, Trevor Moore, instead, but again I feel that he may be a player that they’d prefer to hang on to in this scenario.
In short, while I do believe that Ken Holland may be willing to take a chance on a player such as Rielly, the actual trade that makes sense doesn’t stand out to me.
Another team that has popped up recently is the Seattle Kraken. Seattle has attempted to take some big swings over the past year. They offered Artemi Panarin a monstrous contract, only for him to turn them down in favour of joining the Kings. They also offered Jason Robertson an 8 year contract with a $15M caphit, which Robertson rejected, as he wants to stay with the Dallas Stars. Obviously the team is in a bit of a quandary, where they are willing to spend big money in order to land star players, but simply aren’t a good enough team to attract those types of stars. Their blueline is a bit of an issue as well, as they do have some decent players (Vince Dunn, Brandon Montour, Adam Larsson, Ryker Evans) but they are without a legitimate #1 defender and don’t really have great depth. Cale Fleury and Josh Mahura are fine players in their own right, but it’s tough to argue that adding another defender into the mix wouldn’t help their cause.
While the question of them wanting to add another defender appears to me to be a yes, the next question would be if Rielly would be the guy they would choose? The only answer I have for that is this; if a team keeps missing on adding good players, they may become frustrated and simply add who they can. If that’s Rielly and they see the potential for a couple of bounce back years, then it’s possible that a deal could be made. Of course, that all hinges on the idea that Rielly would agree to go to Seattle. Everyone else appears to be turning them down, could the longest tenured Leaf join that list?
There is one team that I have spoken about before that may have a need for Rielly, but making a trade could be tricky. That is the Detroit Red Wings. The Wings currently have over $18.5M in capspace and a captain that is so eager to win that he requested a trade because he doesn’t feel the team is making legitimate steps forward. There won’t be a lot of movement in terms of big names from here on out this summer, even if the media tells you differently. It’s even being reported that Wings GM, Steve Yzerman is very willing to deny Dylan Larkin’s trade request and enter the season with him in the fold. Could a push to be a little more competitive help change Larkin’s mind and keep him in Michigan? Now, I’m not saying that Rielly would make the Wings exponentially better, but they are ripe with young blueliners that are developing at the NHL level. That group is headlined by Moritz Seider, who is a fantastic defenseman. However, there are learning curves that all of Simon Edvinsson, Axle Sandin-Pellikka and Albert Johansson are going through and Rielly could help to lighten the load on those players. He could join Ben Chiarot and Justin Faulk as veteran players that can share some valuable experience, while also taking a back seat in terms of expectations, as Seider would continue to be their go-to defender ahead of Rielly.
On paper this may actually be a good situation for the player, but the issue is that he would be in Detroit, which means he’d be in the Leafs division and I get the impression that he would prefer to move out West. There he would be far away from the circus and headlines that would come with playing against the Leafs multiple times a year. Once again, I believe this is a situation that could work on paper, but would have trouble coming to fruition.
The Calgary Flames haven’t been mentioned as a possible destination for Rielly at all. That’s because it doesn’t make sense, but I need to keep writing because this feels too short so I’ll convince all of us (including myself) that a deal could work.
The Flames moved along from Rasmus Andersson, Mackenzie Weegar, Olli Maatta, Blake Coleman, Nazem Kadri and more this past season. That’s because they have entered into a full on rebuild and will look to move players for picks and/or prospects for a while. Part of that could and SHOULD include obtaining assets for little to nothing, attempting to rebuild their game and flipping them for futures down the road. Who better to attempt that with than Morgan Rielly?
Honestly, this trade is an easy one to make. The Flames have $14.8M in capspace, which means they could take Rielly for nothing. However, I would ask about a couple of players, as I believe the Leafs could use them in one form or another. Jacob Middleton would be a fantastic player to have patrolling your blueline and helping on the penalty kill. He has 3 seasons left on his contract with a $4.35M caphit. That shouldn’t be one that gets in the way of future plans, as the Leafs have been keeping their acquisitions to 2 year deals, with a couple of 3 year deals mixed in. If that’s not the route they want to go, then asking about Flames Captain Mikael Backlund, should be something they do. He’s a fantastic leader and at 37 years old the lifelong Flame doesn’t have many opportunities left to chase a Stanley Cup. Lastly, obtained at the trade deadline a few months ago, I’d ask about the availability of Ryan Strome. The right shooting native of Mississauga, Ontario can play the wing or centre and leans heavily toward a playmaker. He could be a great fit in the top 6 and may be a bounce back candidate of his own this season.
There is very little chance that Morgan Rielly accepts a trade to the Calgary Flames. However, I’d call Craig Conroy to ask if they had interest and if so, I’d simply bring it to Rielly. The worst he can do is say no. Lastly, from the Leafs side, there really is nothing stopping them from attaching a sweetener in any of these deals. Something along the lines of Rielly and a 2nd OR 3rd for Ryan Strome, just as a “I didn’t think this through” example, may be something that works for both clubs in the long run, while also being something that you can pick apart in the comment section to waste a little time.