We’ll start with the biggest news. Mitch Marner has been traded to the Vegas Golden Knights in exchange for 6’4″ centre, Nicholas Roy.
Mitch Marner
Just to show you how much Marner won’t be missed by the Leafs and their fans is evidenced by the reaction to this trade. A deal that see’s a 100pt winger and their best penalty killer return a player that just produced 31pts in 71 games is seen as a fantastic deal by many. While most of us are simply happy to have gotten anything in return for him at this point, it’s also true that if Marner had been honest with himself and his team a year ago, he could have been traded away and the Leafs could have gotten so much more in return for the star winger.
Instead of doing what was right, he refused to negotiate a new contract with the team that drafted him, refused to waive his NMC for anybody but the Golden Knights, spent a year negotiating a new contract with a team that he wasn’t on and ended another playoff run with a lackluster 1 assist in 4 games, to go along with a plethora of bad and weak plays to help his team get eliminated, once again, by the Florida Panthers.
He also took less money than the Leafs offered him to go play for Vegas. Suffice to say, this kid doesn’t have the Passion.
We’ve all been aware of the reports of tampering over the past few days. It’s now known that the league investigated the Maple Leafs for tampering after they signed John Tavares. Nothing came of it. I have to wonder if there will be an investigation done here as well.
Nicholas Roy
Welcome to the Toronto Maple Leafs, Nicholas Roy.
What the Leafs are getting in return is a 6’4″, 200lb, right shooting centre that can play on their 3rd line, which is exactly what they need. Roy is a player that can draw in on your 2nd powerplay unit, as well as help on the penalty kill. He isn’t a go-to penalty killer, but the Leafs have that on the roster already, so it’s not a big concern. While Roy did produce just 31pts this year, it was a down season for him as compared to his past few campaigns, where he has been good for about 40pts a season. It’s also worth noting that Roy started just 43% of his shifts in the offensive zone, which was last on the Knights this season (minimum 14 games played). When you combine that with a positive shot share, it shows that he was able to begin his shifts in the defensive zone before pushing the play up ice.
Roy uses his size and reach well defensively and on the forecheck, while not being afraid to go to the dirty areas of the ice. The expectation from me is that he’ll fit into Craig Berube’s style of play very well. While he isn’t a big hitter, he doesn’t shy away from contact either, which is more than we can say about Mitch Marner, who too often bailed on puck battles in order to protect himself from harm. The trap that we can’t get caught up in is that Roy will be a replacement for Marner offensively. Instead, what the Leafs need to accomplish is replacing Marner’s production throughout the lineup. One issue that has plagued them for years is a lack of scoring from their bottom 6 and Roy can certainly help remedy that issue.
Steve Lorentz
Steve Lorentz is a gem, so it’s nice to see him re-sign to the tune of $1.35M per season for three more years. Some quotes after his deal was announced:
“Last year exceeded expectations, and just being able to wear the Leaf with pride… trying to bring a cup to a city that’s longing for it, and it deserves it.”
“I knew my heart was here.”
“There was no doubt in my mind I’d be back in Toronto again.”
“I would love to play my whole career here in Toronto.”
Never let this guy go!! Lorentz was a fantastic 4th line, checking forward for the team this year. He knows his role, leans into that role and loves being a Leaf. Those quotes also show that some players are just meant for Toronto, while others… not so much.
Matias Maccelli
This past season for Maccelli was a rough one. He fell out of favour in Utah and had his minutes cut. The result was a drastic drop in his point production. The story on Macelli, as far as I know, is Utah has a small lineup, especially at the top. Players such as Clayton Keller, Barrett Hayton, Nick Schmaltz, Logan Cooley and Dylan Gunther played the most minutes among their forwards and are all fairly undersized. Due to this, Maccelli ended up being the odd man out and lost his minutes, but when he was playing with them previously in Arizona, he was productive. He even lost his powerplay time, but that’s a place where he thrives. He has elite vision and passing skills, as well as the ability to play on the left or right side of the ice. Due to this he could be a fit on the top line alongside goal scorers Matthew Knies and Auston Matthews, or on the second line with goal scorers John Tavares and William Nylander. Either way, they’ll find a mix that fits. Lastly, he’ll bring a much needed element of speed to the group, which has been sorely lacking.
Pontus Holmberg and the RFAs
The Leafs didn’t extend a qualifying offer to pending RFA, Pontus Holmberg. Considering how much Craig Berube appeared to like the player, this caught me off guard. However, Holmberg was eligible for arbitration this year, which could have inflated his next contract, so the Leafs decided to risk losing him as a free agent today. While it’s being reported that they’re still trying to get him signed, it also makes me wonder if, considering what he brings to the ice, his contract demands have been a little unreasonable up to this point. If he were willing to sign at a modest number up to now, don’t you think he’d have been extended already? This may be a case of a player that overplayed his hand.
In the meantime, the team did give qualifying offers to Nicholas Robertson, Matthew Knies, Roni Hirvonen, Topi Niemela, Dennis Hildeby and William Villeneuve.
A few things to point out here. The first is that Matthew Knies has reportedly already signed a 6 year extension with the team. That contract has yet to be filed with the league, so qualifying him simply meant they would retain his rights until that was done. Topi Niemela and Roni Hirvonen are heading back to Europe this season, which means that qualifying each of them is simply paperwork that was needed to ensure they retain their rights for the future. On the off chance that either player develops into a skater that might want to challenge for an NHL job some time down the road, this would give the Leafs the opportunity to bring them back into the fold.
That leaves Robertson, Hildeby and Villeneuve, all of which hold some form of value. Robertson is still flirting with the potential of being a middle 6 scoring forward and brought an element of urgency to his game this season. While it’s possible that they bring him back to Toronto, I feel like they will trade him in the coming days. Hildeby is still young and has drawn into a few NHL games already, which is impressive for a goaltender. With a few more years of development it’s possible that he could be a solid backup, or more, at the NHL level. Villeneuve make progress this season, as he posted 4 goals and 40pts in 55 games with AHL Toronto Marlies. He just turned 23 years old, so while the clock is ticking, he’s far from a lost cause as well.
Simply put, it made sense to qualify all of the players they did. Players that didn’t receive a qualifying offer, other than Holmberg, are Cedric Pare, Reese Johnson and Mikko Kokkonen. All three are at least 24 years old and in my opinion have exited their “prospect” years.
No Qualifying Offers, from around the NHL
While some other fan bases may wonder if Pontus Holmberg could be a player with upside that the Leafs let slip, we’re on the other side of that coin, wondering if any teams gave up on their prospects too soon. There are a few that are interesting at a glance, so I’ll try to keep this quick:
Klim Kostin: The big left winger isn’t afraid to drop the gloves, but he also had 21pts in 57 games with the Edmonton Oilers a couple of years ago. It’s hard not to wonder if there’s untapped offensive potential there, to go along with the 6’4″ 230lb toughness.
Philipp Kurashev: Just one season removed from posting 18 goals and 54pts in 75 games for the Chicago Blackhawks, it’s impossible to think that the skilled forward won’t find a new home quickly. He followed that up with 7 goals and 14pts in 51 games this past season, but there are definitely teams that will love his potential.
Philip Tomasino: After posting 21pts in 49 games in Pittsburgh, it’s actually a little odd that Tomasino didn’t get qualified. The soon to be 24 year old Mississauga native has produced okay offensive numbers in the league. He also recorded a hit per game and 20 blocked shots. Drafted as a centre, Tomasino has been utilized as a winger at the NHL level.
Samuel Bolduc: This is exactly the type of player that I could see Brad Treliving and Craig Berube taking a flyer on. At 6’4″ 220lbs, the left shot defender still has potential at 24 years old. He produced 35pts in 66 games at the AHL level this year, but they wouldn’t pick him up for his offensive potential.
While there are more unqualified free agents that may be of interest, it’s was late when this was being written and I have one last thing to talk about, so we’ll end the list there. Needless to say, there could be diamonds in the rough when free agency opens tomorrow.
Veteran Free Agents
When the Leafs signed Chris Tanev to a 6 year deal at 34 years old, the NHL investigated the contract (there we go with the NHL keeping the Leafs in check again). The question was if he intended to play out the entirety of the deal. Brad Marchand just signed a 6 year contract with the Florida Panthers at 37 years old and I’m wondering if that contract will also be investigated. To expect a player to play until the age of 43 seems absurd. We’ll see how it plays out.
At the moment, Mikhail Granlund is the most productive UFA that is still unsigned ahead of tomorrow’s opening of free agency. He notched 66pts on the year.
There are just 3 players that produced 50pts or more that are still available. They are Granlund, Nikolaj Ehlers and Brock Boeser. What a great year for those players to cash in. I wish them luck and hope that the Leafs don’t get caught up in a bidding war for any of them. While signing any would have it’s benefits, I’m under the belief that the cost to sign them would be too great. The Leafs need to search for a couple of diamonds in the rough here, while also attempting to trade for another top 6 forward.
Some players that I would love to see them sign include Corey Perry, Connor Brown, Brandon Tanev(!!!!), Luke Kunin, Tanner Jeannot and Michael Pezzetta, among others.
Last Thought
The Leafs still have money to spend as they enter free agency and that’s something that we haven’t really been accustomed to in recent years. The flat cap, due to the covid pandemic, handcuffed the Leafs at the most inopportune time, as they had just signed their star players to big contracts. Instead of moving players and trying to make it work, they decided to ride it out and the results well less than optimal, but I digress. While they could still use to shed some salary, they have $5.7M to spend with this roster in hand:
Matthew Knies, Auston Matthews, William Nylander
Matias Maccelli, John Tavares, Calle Jarnkrok
Scott Laughton, Nicholas Roy, Max Domi
Steve Lorentz, David Kampf, Bobby McMann
Ryan Reaves
Morgan Rielly, Chris Tanev
Jake McCabe, Brandon Carlo
Simon Benoit, Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Philippe Myers
Anthony Stolarz
Joseph Woll
There are tradable assets within this group, as well as players that can be buried (for the most part), such as Ryan Reaves. This also doesn’t include whatever contract Nicholas Robertson may bring to the team. However, all-in-all, this is a positive year so far and I’m very interested to see what they are able to do with the roster over the next few days.