I had a few days off with the family, so writing has been on the backburner. There’s a lot to talk about, as is the usual around this time of year, so let’s just hop right into it.
The Draft
The Leafs went into the Entry Draft with 6 picks total, with the highest being the 64th overall selection. As they have in recent years, they selected a player that many thought was a reach. It appears that they may have done okay with Easton Cowan and Ben Danford, so we have to assume that they know more than the guy on X who has a module and a strong opinion, so I’m not about to start complaining that there was a guy that “I had at 32 on my list that they should have taken” like that guy did. The simple fact of the matter is when you’re starting your draft at the very end of the second round, any player you select is a long shot to make the NHL. It’s all about development at this point and the kids the Leafs took all have a clear, projectable path to the NHL.
Tinus Luc Koblar: At #64 the Leafs chose a 6’4″ 190lb Norwegian centre. His parents are both Olympians so there’s an athletic background there. He’s playing out of Leksands in Sweden’s Jr. league where he produced 8 goals and 21pts in 43gp and is expected to get a bigger role this year. He’s said to be responsible defensively, a very good skater, and according to Director of Amateur Scouting, Mark Leach, ” He’s got a very good knack for the net, knack down low, knack to play on the wall … pretty good elements to his game.” While he has a lot to work on, especially on the offensive side of his game, it’s tough to hate the idea of bringing a true centre into the organization with his size and defensive game. The cherry on top is that he grew up a Leafs fan. Taking players that grew up as fans of the team also appears to be something of a trend in recent years.
Tyler Hopkins: Hopkins is another centre, which is a position that the Leafs are sorely lacking in the system. Hopkins is a two-way pivot that thrives in trying to shut down the oppositions best players. He says he wants to model his game after Anthony Cirelli of the Tampa Bay Lightning. If he comes anywhere near the level of player that Cirelli is the Leafs have a steal in the late 3rd round. The Campbellville, Ontario native is playing for the Kingston Frontenacs of the OHL and scored 20 goals and 51pts in 67 games last season. Following the trend from above, Hopkins and his family have long been fans of the Leafs. After being selected by Toronto he said “I kinda hit the jackpot.”
Will Belle: Belle has an interesting story, due to being born in China. “I started skating in figure skates in a public shopping mall, and somehow graduated into hockey skates that were off-brand Bauer. My skate size was my shoe size, and then we eventually figured that out,” he smiled. “And then it turned into taking trains to Hong Kong and flying to Beijing to play hockey. Eventually, we moved to the U. S. and it just kind of kept taking off from there.”
He certainly took off. The kid that donned those figure skates has turned into a 6’3″ 220lb wrecking ball of a winger that says right now he plays like Miles Wood, but aspires to play more like Tom Wilson of the Washington Capitals. So far he’s been a quote machine with a ton of personality, offering up statements such as “The meanness aspect of it is just, I’m here to win, and I’m here to help my team. And I don’t care who you are, I’m gonna be in your face. That’s just how I’m wired. That’s just how I play.”
According to Mark Leach he’s a “Big body, skates extremely well, has a passion for the game. He just wants to get in there. You watch him all year and that’s the way he played, he has those (compete) elements to his game.”
With just 2 goals and 10pts in 28 games at the USHL level, combined with 49 penalty minutes, Belle will look to work on his offensive game, but he already brings NHL size and appears to be destined for a 4th line energy role at the very least. He’ll be attending Notre Dame in the fall, which will be a fantastic route to help him develop against bigger, stronger competition. This is a completely different prospect than the ones we became accustomed to under the watch of former GM, Kyle Dubas and I’ll admit that adding players like this has me feeling optimistic. Whether or not he makes it to the NHL is irrelevant, there is a change coming within the organization, as this management group is obviously putting more value on size, grit and compete level.
Harry Nansi: The constant theme this year is that players who the Leafs chose are very willing to go to the tough areas of the ice and battle. This is also the case with Nansi, who at 6’3″ 179lbs, is a big kid that has a lot of room to grow. He’s hard on pucks and is said to be very difficult to play against. His skating needs improvement, but he’s a hard worker who is one of the youngest players in this draft class. People rave about his potential, due to his willingness to get involved all over the ice.
Ryan Fellinger: Like Belle and Nansi, who were taken in the 5th round, the Leafs’ 6th round pick is a player that has a clear route to the NHL if he develops well. Fellinger is a 6’4″ 200lb right shot defender and is the only defender the Leafs took in this years draft. “He plays simple, he closes fast. He likes to box people out, but has to work on his game” says Mark Leach. The Wawa, Ontario native had just 3 goals and 7pts in 64 games for the Flint Firebirds of the OHL this year. Don’t expect big offensive numbers from him any time soon, but instead look for him to develop into a 3rd pair, shut down defender that can help your penalty kill.
Matthew Hlacar: The stat line will tell you a lot about what you can expect from Hlacar in the future. With 7 goals, 8 points and 62 penalty minutes in 43 games for the OHL Kitchener Rangers, Hlacar is a very competitive and physical player that will pick up for his teammates on the ice. “His unique element is he likes to get in your face. If you have those things in your game, you have a chance to get better at other things” says Mark Leach, of the Binbrook, Ontario native. Some have labeled him a goon and say that this was a wasted selection. I say the role of the enforcer in the NHL isn’t as extinct as some make it out to be, so choosing a guy that can pot a few goals, has solid size and a high compete level is never a bad thing.
The word of the day at the Leafs’ draft table was “compete.” The obvious target was players that are big, hard working and willing to play a heavy game along the walls, in the corners and in front of the net. They also targeted players that could fill any type of role in the NHL one day, whether that was as a middle 6, defensive player or a 4th line enforcer or 3rd pair defender, it didn’t matter. That is something that was far from valued over the last regime’s drafting and the proof is in the pudding. When you look at picks such as Brandon Lisowsky (7th round, 2022, 5’9″ 180lbs), Joe Miller (6th round, 2020, 5’10” 165lbs), Ty Voit (5th round, 2021, 5’10” 160lbs) and far too many others, they were swings for the fences with the hope of landing a top 6, skilled player no matter how unlikely it was. The simple fact of the matter is that landing any type of NHLer through rounds 4-7 is unlikely, but it’s far more often that you get a guy like Morgan Barron who was selected in the 6th round of the 2017 draft and is a 6’4″ 220 centre playing for Winnipeg in a 4th line role than you’ll get a small, productive top 6 forward. Even players such as Yegor Sharangovic (5th round, 2018, 6’2″ 200lbs) and Drake Batherson (4th round, 2017, 6’3″ 200lbs), who are recent examples of players that were chosen in that range and can play a top 6 role, bring size to the table. There’s a reason that players like Brayden Point and Alex Debrincat fell to the 2nd and 3rd round and that’s because thousands before them, who were very productive as teenagers, failed to remain productive once they reached the pro level. Point and Debrincat are the exception to the rule and shouldn’t stand as an example of a market deficiency.
To break it down into one simple point: Things are changing for the better at the draft table.
John Tavares
I’ll admit that I was among the most skeptical when it came to re-signing John Tavares to anything near the caphit people were talking about. I read “less than $4M per season or let him walk” a thousand times and knew that it simply wasn’t realistic. Yes, Tavares is getting older and yes, he is slowing down. However, he was never the fastest player to begin with and he just posted 38 goals and 74pts in 75 games. Those 38 goals matched his 2nd highest career total, which at 34 years old tells me that he should have a few good years left in the tank if he doesn’t regress drastically. To my surprise (and Pierre Lebrun’s, who stated “I know for a fact that unless there is term attached, there is no way Tavares signs for $5M with the Leafs. Its going to have to be more than that”) Tavares’ caphit came in at a very team friendly $4,388,420, which we’ll just call $4.3M for the next 4 years. If Tavares can continue to produce 50+ points a season throughout that time, this will prove to be a very good deal for the Leafs.
Also worth noting is that the contract includes a full NMC for the first two seasons, but only partial trade protection for the last two seasons. While that trade protection is still fairly secure (5 teams that he will approve a trade to), it’s easy to envision the Leafs having the ability to deal Tavares if they need to.
Matthew Knies
With Tavares locked up everybody’s attention shifted to pending RFA Matthew Knies and Brad Treliving didn’t disappoint. Knies inked a 6 year deal with a $7.75M caphit to remain with the Leafs. While I would have loved to see max term with Knies, you can’t complain about the deal as a whole. If Knies continues to trend upwards, this contract could look extremely team friendly within a couple of short seasons. We still don’t have a confirmed breakdown regarding the contract details (signing bonuses/no trade protection etc), but that will come in the following days. For now we know that he won’t hold a NTC for a few years, only players that are 27 years old or have accrued 7 NHL seasons are eligible for no trade protection. This matters only to the most pessimistic fan (me), that wonders if Auston Matthews will continue to be a Leaf 3 years from now. If #34 walks, or asks for a trade over the next couple of seasons, the Leafs may decide to enter something of a rebuild or retool. In that case Knies would be a very valuable trade chip. For now, the soon to be 23 year old brings an extremely rare blend of size, physicality and skill to the Leafs’ lineup and we should all be very excited that he is staying in Toronto.
Mitch Marner
Without further adieu, let’s talk about the most pressing topic of the day, Mitch Marner.
I hope this is the last time I write about him, but I feel as if he’ll be a story in Toronto for years to come.
It’s now known that Marner completely refused to negotiate with the Leafs for over a calendar year. He shut off all efforts to continue his career as a Leaf beyond this season after their exit from the 2024 playoffs, which prompted the Leafs to try to find him a new home. He agreed to move to one team and one team only, the Vegas Golden Knights. It’s now believed that Marner’s camp and the Knights have been in contact ever since that time, but there’s no proof of that at the moment, or at least none that has been made public.
From there we all know that the Leafs tried to move Marner once again, this time at the trade deadline. He was asked to waive his NMC to go to the Carolina Hurricanes and when he said no to that, they brought Vegas back into the deal in an attempt to complete a 3 way trade. We know that the trade would have sent Marner to Vegas and Mikko Rantanen to Toronto. The deal stalled because Vegas couldn’t bring enough assets to the table to satisfy the wants and needs of the Carolina Hurricanes.
From there we also know that Marner finished this years playoffs and immediately began to talk about his time in Toronto in the past tense. “I enjoyed my time here” and similar quotes quickly spread across the hockey world, signaling his intention to move on from being a Toronto Maple Leaf.
The news that rocked the hockey world this weekend was a report from Elliotte Friedman that said that the Leafs and Knights were in talks about a sign-and-trade that would see Nicholas Roy traded to the Leafs in exchange for a signed Mitch Marner. What made this so strange is the fact that it has been well known that Marner set up meetings with multiple teams for July 1st, in an effort to better know whichever team he ultimately decided to sign with.
Making it make sense, Friedman further explained that the Leafs are basically blackmailing the Knights, by threat of filing for tampering. In short, if the Knights refuse to trade a good player for a signed Marner, the Leafs will file tampering charges, which could mean a flurry of penalties, such as:
The Team:
Up to a $5,000,000 fine.
Termination of signed contracts
Forfeiture of draft picks
Awarding draft picks and/or cash to the offended club
Individual player:
Up to a $1,000,000 fine
Suspension or expulsion from the league
It’s very obvious that, as offended as Mitch Marner has reportedly been over the past couple of years, the Toronto Maple Leafs are just as, or more offended. We’re talking about a player that was rumoured to be upset with the selection of the team’s captain, twice, believing that he should have been granted the honour of wearing the “C.” A player that demanded top dollar and held out for that payday until the start of training camp after his ELC contract ended. A player that repeatedly failed to produce in the most important games the team played and, what’s worse, made plays that cost them too many goals in the elimination games they played. Now, he’s a player that refused to negotiate a contract and instead of working with the team to find him a new home, while simultaneously helping them continue to be competitive by way of returning valuable trade assets, he instead began negotiations with another team that have lasted a calendar year.
That truly is Captain material.
I will point out that it’s understandable that he didn’t waive to be dealt at the trade deadline. His wife was far along in her pregnancy at the time, nobody should blame him there. However, they should have been starting their family in a different city by then.
The fact of the matter is, it’s not just the Knights that will take the threat of tampering very seriously, but also Mitch Marner. A $1M fine and a suspension is a hefty penalty to pay, but it would also eliminate his chance at becoming a Golden Knight.
However, it’s definitely worth asking; would the Leafs have been better off to allow the Knights to sign Marner, before simply filing tampering charges? I find it hard to believe that they would even threaten those charges without real evidence that proves it happened, so there has to be some level of truth to it all. What level of draft pick compensation would be involved here? If the Leafs received 1st or 2nd round selections, would they be better off with the picks rather than Nicholas Roy? Or are we talking about awarding the Leafs with 3rd round picks or lower, which would mean Nicholas Roy is easily the better asset? It is said that the NHL is eager to make an example of a team because tampering is more prevalent than most realize, so they may be heavy handed with the Knights if sufficient proof of tampering exists. This begs another question; is there evidence of tampering, but the Leafs don’t believe it’s enough to follow through on their threat of bringing it to the league? Is the threat a simple play, an attempt to garner assets from an asset that is walking out the door for nothing?
Lastly, now that the tampering rumours are public, does the NHL even need the Leafs to file charges, or are they within their rights to follow up on the rumours themselves? Further to that, if the Leafs do have evidence of tampering and the league finds out that they withheld that evidence and instead decided to blackmail the Knights with it, what repercussions would they face? Is it possible that any trade made would be void? Any draft pick compensation that the Leafs would have been awarded canceled? While the Knights and Marner would face the penalties mentioned above, the Leafs may have created a scenario where nobody wins and everybody loses, which sounds very Leafy to me. As we all know, when things sound too Leafy to be true, they usually come true.