We’ve got a lot to speak about, but we’ll start with the big event of the weekend, the draft.
The Leafs have completely devastated their prospect cupboard over the past decade. As we’ve all talked about ad nauseum on this site, they jumped from “building” to “competing” far too quickly after they drafted Auston Matthews a decade ago. The addition of Brian Boyle, for me, sparked a series of unfortunate and ill advised additions that never worked out. The final straw in that line of failures was, hopefully, Brandon Carlo. Now my hope is that moving on from him signals a new vision and approach to becoming a true Stanley Cup contender.
Obviously some people immediately compared the return for Carlo to what former GM Brad Treliving originally gave up for the player. That’s simply torturing yourself, as the market dictates the return for anybody and Carlo has been on the market for weeks. As soon as John Chayka was hired they spoke about wanting their blueline to be more mobile and Carlo doesn’t represent that type of player, so you can bet opposing GMs that had any interest in adding a player of that type contacted Chayka shortly after. Suffice to say, a pair of 3rds in a deep draft feels like plenty to me.
Which brings us to the draft itself. The event began with the Leafs selecting LW Gavin McKenna, which was the presumptive selection and one that makes a ton of sense for the immediate future of the club. McKenna is a playmaking winger that should form chemistry with the rest of the Leafs’ top 6. All of Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies, John Tavares and William Nylander can score goals, so they likely wanted to add a setup man (or 2) this summer anyway. Getting this one in particular is more than Leafs Nation could have ever hoped for.
From there, by all accounts, the rest of the draft was a success. I’ll give a quick run down of their picks:
Round 2, Pick 60, Alexander Bilecki (LD): Bilecki is considered a steal at this point in the draft. He’s a high skill, smooth skating, offensive defenseman that played a depth role on a deep Kitchener Rangers team. The expectation is to see him move up the lineup this year, which should help improve his offensive numbers and help develop his overall play. He still needs to add size and strength to his frame, but he has time to develop and the sky is the limit in terms of where his skill can take him.
Round 3, Pick 69, Ethan MacKenzie (LD): I wrote about MacKenzie in my lead up to the draft. He’s an aggressive defender that tries hard on every shift. He can move the puck effectively but offense isn’t likely what will earn him a shot at the NHL. He does skate well and can move the puck up ice via a solid first pass, but it’s his defense that will get him to the next level. This was his third year of draft eligibility and he really elevated his game this year. He’ll be 20 in September and has committed to playing at the University of North Dakota, which I believe is a great path for him moving forward. MacKenzie is likely closer to the NHL than anybody the Leafs drafted this weekend that isn’t named Gavin McKenna, so expect to see his name on a contract within the next couple of years.
Round 3, Pick 73, Zach Olsen, (RW): Olsen is a speedy winger that plays a power forward game with intensity and effort. He’s always moving and never takes a shift off. He doesn’t cheat the game for a second and is expected to be one of those 3rd-4th liners that you simply love to have come playoff time. He needs to work on his offense but once again they made a pick that has college commitments, as Olsen is set to join Colorado College next season, which will give him a long runway to work on his game.
Round 3, Pick 76, Mans Gudmansson (RD): The Hockey Mans is another puck moving defender that skates well and has projectable NHL size at 6’3″ 190lbs. He’s a fluid skater and defends well for a player that thinks offense first. Once he puts on more muscle and grows into his frame he’ll be a force, but he needs to learn to be more aggressive with his size.
Round 3, Pick 85, Juuso Ainasto (G): Ainasto is a calm and steady goaltender that takes up a lot of net with his 6’4″ 200lb frame. He moves well in the butterfly and has an effective glovehand. He’ll simply need to refine his game and get stronger in order to fulfill his potential.
Round 4, Pick 114, Patriks Plumins, (G): Selecting two goalies back-to-back is a rarity at the draft. John Chayka called it an example of not being caged in with arbitrary rules, but used his own words to say that. Some teams want you to pick a goalie every year. Others will only take them in certain areas of the draft. The Leafs are ready to pick who they deem the best player at any position whenever their selections come up and Plumins represents that frame of mind. Plumins is a positionally sound goaltender that will have to work on his athleticism. He also takes up a lot of net at 6’3″ 215lbs, which is good because that’s what he relies on the most. He absorbs pucks and reads the play well, while challenging shooters effectively.
Round 5, Pick 158, Cooper Williams (C): I’m biased, I’ll admit, because I believe in the Williams name, but this is my favourite late round selection over the past number of years. Williams is the only centre the Leafs selected this year and he could be a steal in round 5. He’s a defense centric player, acting more as a 3rd defender than an offensive pivot. That’s not to say that he doesn’t have puck skills though. He produced 23 goals and 57pts in 66 games this past season, which almost mirrors his 21 goals and 57pts in 68 games from the year before. It’s the fact that his point totals plateaued that turned some teams off, but he’s also lacking an intensity that you’d like to see. He needs to become more aggressive and learn to use his skill to comfortably make more risky plays, if you can believe it.
Round 6, Pick 161, Yaroslav Fedoseyev (RD): Once again we see the team take a defender with solid skating skills and projectible size (6’1″ 187lbs). Fedoseyev leans more towards the defensive defender side of things, but like Gudmansson he has the capability to control zone exits due to not handling the puck like it’s a grenade.
Round 6, Pick 169, Brody Pepoy (RW): Pepoy plays the game in the same vein as Olsen. He has a high end motor, a ton of grit and never takes a shift off. His offensive skills don’t project to be high, but he’s a guy that you’ll want around when the going gets tough in the playoffs.
The Leafs organization as a whole were lacking defensive prospects and this draft helped backfill that void a little bit. While they’re also lacking centre prospects, it’s hard not to like the wingers they selected. The NHL team is easily described as heartless, due to a lack of gritty, high effort forwards and it’s possible that they recognized that and decided to go with a couple of wingers that can change that narrative at some point down the road. For the time being they’ll have to try to switch that narrative through free agency.
When asked what he expects to accomplish on Wednesday, July 1st, Chayka spoke about adding depth to the roster, as well as trying to improve the team in the present without hurting the future. I like that viewpoint, as free agency can be a bit of a trap for GMs as they scramble to get the biggest name on the market, which can lead to bloated contracts and big mistakes. The fact that he already traded for a signed Darren Raddysh, which is risky due to his lack of high end success in the NHL, tells me that he is willing to take risks, but recognizes that too many of those risks all at once is a recipe for disaster.
Adding depth is also more important for this roster in particular, due to their having a fair amount of legitimate top 6 forwards already. Between Matthews, Nylander, Knies and Tavares being sure fire top 6 players, while McKenna and Cowan are at least on the cusp as well, it’s the 3rd and 4th lines that need help. It’s also worth noting that Bo Groulx, Jacob Quillan and Luke Haymes all had okay to good showings down the stretch, which shows that the team has some options for depth roles and/or call-ups already in the system. What they really lack is a legitimate 3rd line centre and possibly one more top 6 winger.
The centre market is very dry this year. There are so few legitimate options that’s it’s actually scary. Boone Jenner could definitely be a piece that they’ll look to add, as he has the size, scoring and defensive ability to play the 3C role effectively. He isn’t the fastest skater and he has had trouble staying healthy over the past number of years, but the captain of the Columbus Blue Jackets has the grit and leadership that you want in your lineup and he’s an Ontario native. The Leafs may have the inside track on this one, but I actually expect to see them surprise us via the trade route to fill this void.
Another player I now expect them to contend for is Patrick Kane…
I’m sure Kane has been told that he’s somebody’s idol before, so it doesn’t phase him much, but he really is the perfect fit for the Leafs right now. At 37 years of age he still has some miles left and I’m sure he’d like to get back to a contending team one last time before he hangs up his skates for good. The Dylan Larkin trade request changes things in Detroit, which has lead many to believe that he won’t re-sign there again this summer. I do wonder if he sees the opportunity to form The American Line with Matthews and Knies. His skill set would complement theirs perfectly and he’d be in line with Chayka’s view of helping the team now, while not damaging the future. The Leafs could offer him a big money deal (compared to what he has been signing in Detroit as of late) on a short term contract. It’s a very intriguing thought, to say the least.
If Kane isn’t interested in joining a Canadian club, they can always chase the secondary top 6 options, which would include Anthony Mantha and Victor Arvidsson. If I’m being honest I find it hard to get excited about either of those additions, as they have their flaws, but I can say the same about Jenner and Kane, which only goes to show just how terrible free agency is right now.
One player I would absolutely love to see the team chase though? Corey Perry. Perry has reportedly been in favour of joining the Leafs at times over his career and I think it’s about time they make that happen. He’s a player that can still produce some offense in a depth role, even at 41 years of age, while he also brings a physical edge. He’s one of the best pest’s in the game and the Leafs are lacking that type of player.
After moving Brandon Carlo I assume they’ll be in the market for another defender as well. Much like the UFA forwards, there isn’t a lot out there in terms of quality defenders. Mario Ferraro is definitely interesting, as he fits the mold of a defensive defender that can control zone exits. Regardless of the depth addition of Emil Andrea, I would still chase Logan Stanley though. The Leafs have been so easily pushed around for so long, they need some size and fighting ability in their lineup and they need it from a player that can help them in more than just that facet of the game. Stanley can kill penalties and play a respectable 17 minutes a night. I know he’d hurt their puck moving ability, so I don’t expect to see him signed by Chayka, but I still believe that he’d be a solid addition to the roster.
Lastly, the topic of the Leafs adding another goaltender has popped up and it’s a strange one for me. Joseph Woll was traded in order to make room for the tandem of Dennis Hildeby and Artur Akhtyamov to get reps in the NHL. Anthony Stolarz has been very injury prone, which means there is a very real possibility that both of those young goalies could be tasked with backstopping the Leafs for a major part of the season. If it were up to me they would have moved Stolarz for this reason, rather than Woll, but it’s also true that when healthy, Stolarz has been the better goalie of the two. Based on pure skill, Stolarz was the right decision.
From here the only way I see them adding a goalie is if they do it while also trading Stolarz. For that reason it severely limits their ability to make a move. The market for an injury prone Stolarz was likely very, very thin already, and likely non-existent, but he also has a 16 team no-trade list on top of that. Moving him now is nearly impossible, to say the least. With that in mind, if they signed a player like Sergei Bobrovsky, as is rumoured, they would only be condemning themselves to running a 3 goalie rotation for this year, as Hildeby isn’t waiver exempt and will have to stay on the roster. If they were willing to do that they simply would have kept Joseph Woll, so that idea can be tossed out the window.
Any other option, such as trading Stolarz in a package for a goalie like Jordan Binnington can also be nixed, due to the aforementioned trade clause and injury concerns. No other team will be willing to tie themselves to his contract.
For these reasons I believe the team will add a veteran goaltender that can provide leadership and will safely pass through waivers. I can’t believe I’m going to say this, but bringing back Matt Murray might actually be a good idea. You know he enjoyed his time here, he has a love for the Leafs logo, he had fantastic AHL numbers, is already familiar with Hildeby and Akhtyamov, and lastly, he played 5 NHL games last season and had a 0.922SV%, which is pretty damn good. If disaster struck in the form of Stolarz going down long term and the young tandem was struggling heavily, Murray is the type of veteran that could step into the crease at the NHL level to save them from having their confidence and development completely side tracked, while also (possibly) being just good enough to hold things down so the teams entire season doesn’t get flushed down the drain. He’d the optimal addition, but I’d be happy to hear other suggestions.