Loose Leafs

The jadedness continues for Leafs fans, as the Stanley Cup Final drags out. For myself, this is shaping up to be the worst offseason in a very long time. Yes, finally, it appears that there will be a change to the core group of forwards, and it’s far beyond time for such a change, but the timing and the way it has gone is terrible.

Mitch Marner

After last year’s failure to advance past the 1st round of the playoffs there were a lot of rumours surrounding Mitch Marner. It was reported that the Leafs quietly asked for teams that he would be willing to waive his NMC for and, shortly after, there was a rumour that just one team was on that list, the Vegas Golden Knights. Fast forward a calendar year and we’re getting more information about what happened. You’ll never get full confirmation of this, but the potential return from Vegas included William Karlsson, who used his partial no-trade clause to block a trade to Toronto and from there things simply fell apart. For the Leafs that’s a missed opportunity. For Mitch Marner’s legacy as a Maple Leaf it causes further damage, as giving just one team that he’d move to handcuffed management and didn’t allow them the opportunity to further build the roster in a more well rounded way.

From there we know that Marner played out his season with the team, while nixing a deal to the Carolina Hurricanes that would have landed Mikko Rantanen in Toronto. While I agree with everybody that, with a wife that was just a few weeks away from her due date, Mitch was never going to waive to go anywhere, it will always feel like a missed opportunity to continue on the road they were on, while also bringing a different mixture to the core group.

Now, we sit and we wait. Not to see if Marner will return to the Leafs, it appears to be a foregone conclusion that he’ll be moving on this summer. No, we’re waiting to see what the team is able to do with the capspace that he’ll leave behind.

Free Agency

This may be the worst group of free agents I have ever seen. Two of the top three scoring UFAs are Mitch Marner (1st) and one of the Leafs that’s expect to return to the team, John Tavares (3rd). The guy that’s sandwiched between them, Matt Duchene, is the same age as Tavares and is reportedly seeking a long term contract after having spent the past two years in Dallas on single year deals. Statistically, his regular season’s in Dallas were good to great, but with 6pts in 19 games, followed by 6pts in 18 games in the post season, I think I speak for all of Leafs Nation when I say Brad Treliving should avoid signing the Haliburton native, as we’ve all had enough of players that disappear when the playoffs begin.

As you move down the list there are most certainly some useful players, such as Nikolaj Ehlers, Mikhail Granlund, Patrick Kane, Sam Bennett and Brad Marchand, but none that would constitute star players and, because of the lack of top end options hitting the market, all will likely be overpaid with too much term. The question then is, if you’re going to enter a bidding war, who is it that you’re looking to chase and how big of a mistake are you willing to make in terms of a ludicrous contract to get them?

The want, according to Craig Berube and a lot of the fans, is a heavier, more robust group of forwards, especially at the top of the lineup. This is what has fans salivating over the idea of adding Bennett and Marchand to the team, as they most certainly add elements of grit and determination. However, as much as I like the way these two play, I have to wonder if they’d join this team and if so, how much would it cost to land them?

It depends on who you choose to believe when we talk about Sam Bennett. While some are reporting that he is going to play in Florida or Toronto and nowhere else, others are reporting that he has no desire to play for the Leafs at all. The Holland Landing native has David Clarkson vibes, in my opinion, but I most certainly would love to see him do well if he does play for the Leafs some day. If you ask why I’d compare him to Clarkson, it’s simple. If you take a quick look at his time in Calgary, where Leafs current GM, Brad Treliving, drafted and eventually traded him, you’ll see a player that struggled statistically, before breaking out immediately when he was traded to Florida. How immediate you ask? During the 2020-21 season Bennett played 38 games for Calgary, in which he produced 4 goals and 12pts. He was traded to Florida at the trade deadline and played 10 regular season games and 5 playoff games, in which his combined total was 7 goals and 20pts. That, to me, screams the perfect fit for a player. It’s also worth noting that Bennett has tallied over 50pts just once in his career and the general consensus is that his next contract will be at, or above, the $7.5M per season mark. While it’s certainly true that his play gets better once the playoffs begin, it’s still a risky addition at that price tag.

Brad Marchand is a nuisance in every way imaginable. Not only is he a nuisance on the ice, but off as well and we’re seeing that first hand right now. By simply mentioning that he grew up a fan of the Toronto Maple Leafs he sent the message to other GMs around the NHL; “I’m going there unless you ante up.” I don’t believe that he has any intention of joining the Leafs this summer, I believe it was a negotiating tactic, but if he did it certainly wouldn’t include a home town discount. His negotiations with the Boston Bruins broke down because Boston wouldn’t pay what he felt he was worth, even after he had a face-to-face meeting with Don Sweeney in an effort to bridge the gap. If we believe the rumours his stance was simple enough, his contract was signed at a time when players such as Patrice Bergeron and Zdeno Chara were leaving money on the table in order to allow the team a chance to win. Those days are over and he’d like to be paid what he’s worth this time around. If you’re logging into PuckPedia.com today to toy with the Leafs roster and you have him coming to Toronto at a discount, I’ll simply tell you to pump the brakes. I’m sure Marchand would like to go somewhere to win one last time, but I’m also sure that there are teams that can afford him that opportunity, while also being able to pay him well. There will be a bidding war.

If you’re looking through the rest of the free agent crop to find top 6, or even top 9 players that can bring the same scrappy game that Bennett and Marchand can, you may be disappointed. Jamie Benn jumps out at you, as does Corey Perry, but few after that. Benn, for what it’s worth, has been in Dallas his entire career and now, at 35 years old, I can’t imagine him anywhere else, even if the Stars are in a pretty substantial cap crunch.

So, if the Leafs fall short of “changing the DNA” of the team via free agency, as it looks like they will, considering how few decent options are actually available, what other choices do they have?

Trade Routes

The biggest problem with talking about potential trades is the Leafs’ lack of decent assets that other teams would want. Sure, you could trade some of the bigger players, such as William Nylander or Morgan Rielly, but both have no-move clauses, which makes it unlikely that they go anywhere. If we look at just movable assets, they have little to nothing in terms of valuable draft picks, very few prospects that move the needle (Easton Cowan may be alone in that category) and no players on the roster of value that don’t have trade protection outside of Matthew Knies, who needs to be part of the solution. In fact, even the players on their roster that I’m sure they’d love to move for nothing but capspace have trade protection, such as David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok and Max Domi.

The reality of the situation is that Treliving is out there in the trade market trying to land good players that can change the look of the roster, while dangling late 2nd round picks and players such as Pontus Holmberg and Nicholas Robertson. Oy vey!!

There is just one player out there that I could see the Leafs targeting via trade that may be cheap enough in terms of his caphit and might come at a discount and that’s Lawson Crouse. At 6’4″ 216lbs and making $4.3M for two more seasons, acquiring Crouse is a risk worth taking. He scored over 20 goals three seasons in a row, but took a giant step back this year, where he scored 12 goals and 18pts in 81 games. The real issue here is that, according to the word around the water cooler, the Utah Mammoth’s roster is anything but mammoth and they would like to change that. Their star players are small, as is most of their supporting cast, which means moving a big body such as Crouse might be something they’re reluctant to do unless they’re getting size back in the deal as well. The last time I checked, Holmberg and Robertson weren’t exactly big, bruising players, so any type of swap there is unlikely to happen. The hope would be that they’d be willing to sell at a loss in order to open capspace and fill that need via a different route, but hope is generally fleeting and seldom does it work out for the Leafs.

If you’re looking to take advantage of teams that are in cap trouble you may be disappointed. There are teams with very little capspace, such as the Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning, but they also have rosters that are mostly filled out, with no star players to sign. The Dallas Stars appear to be the lone team that may look to dump decent players in order to open capspace this summer. Mason Marchment could easily move for that purpose and would certainly check a lot of boxes in terms of what the Leafs are looking for. Coming off of two solid seasons likely means that he will garner more than a cap dumps return and if we go back to our previous problem of having too few tradable assets, it’s easy to envision the Leafs being outbid for the 6’5″ winger.

The NHL has changed, it appears. During the covid years there was simply not enough capspace around the league. Now, with a poor free agent crop and with all but eight teams around the league having about $12M or more in space, combined with the fact that many of those teams don’t have any major free agents to sign, there’s plenty of capspace free to lure these players to teams that feel as if they’re just a piece or two away.

John Tavares

All of this sets up talking about John Tavares very well. Tavares is easily the top UFA centre on the market. He has been a consistent point producer throughout his career and has captained two separate NHL teams. He’s respected around the NHL, he’s still very skilled and while he wants to commit to the Leafs, the business side of things won’t be as simple as “sign him for $4M or less, or let him walk” as some fans are suggesting. If you let him walk, then who plays those minutes? Max Domi is the teams 2nd best centre under contract at the moment, which is concerning. If you fail to sign Tavares and miss on the next best UFA options (Sam Bennett, Mikhail Granlund, Pius Suter), which aren’t really all that great, then follow it up by not being able to trade for any centres because the only pieces you have to compete in the trade market aren’t worth much to other teams, you could leave yourself with a centre group of Auston Matthews, Max Domi, Scott Laughton, David Kampf and Pontus Holmberg. Again, that’s concerning.

Unfortunately the team is once again in a situation where the player holds all the cards. The only thing that’s saving the Leafs right now is the fact that John Tavares wants to win and he wants to win here. The expectation, from many, is that we’ll see a contract that’s structured similar to Chris Tanev’s deal, which means a lot of term to lower the caphit. The big question is how long of a contract is needed to get that caphit down to a place where the team and player can both agree to sign.

Lastly, on this, I’d like to talk about deferred payments. It’s difficult to drop a players caphit substantially via deferred payments. Instead, it appears to be meant as a tool for teams with little to no room, that want to open up a couple of hundred thousand in space, rather than millions. As always, I’d like to thank PuckPedia.com for their amazing work and tools. Here, they provide a tool that calculates deferred payments and how that changes a players caphit: https://puckpedia.com/deferred

The Long Summer Ahead

Was change to the top 6 of the Leafs’ team needed? Without a doubt I’d say yes to that. For years people have talked about how all of the stars players were wired the same and how that isn’t a recipe for success. They have proven, time and again, that they couldn’t push the envelope when the games mattered the most and now, finally, we’re going to see big changes due to Mitch Marner walking for nothing.

The issue is that, for starters, they allowed one of those star players to walk for nothing. That player could have added a mixture of draft picks, prospects and/or useable roster players if he had been dealt at any point during his tenure here, but instead is leaving nothing but a sour legacy behind. Don’t get me wrong, this isn’t wholly on the player, it’s on the management team. Specifically, it’s on a management team that no longer exists, with Brendan Shanahan and Kyle Dubas being the driving force behind the stubborn refusal to move those players and allowing their contracts to be so iron clad in terms of trade protection.

The question now is how much did Shanahan have to do with the most recent debacles? Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Chris Tanev all have full no-move clauses and all were signed during Brad Treliving’s time here. Did he agree that it was necessary? Was a full no-move clause a deal breaker for Chris Tanev, after being presented with a 6 year contract that, in and of itself, is trade protection enough considering his age and eventual, guaranteed decline in play, or was it an over-the-top throw in to guarantee they’d land the player they want?

Now, right this second, with a draft approaching in which they have a late 2nd and late 3rd round selection, followed by a free agent year that will open it’s doors to B level players that are going to be paid like A level players, by GMs that are under pressure to improve their rosters or find a new job, only to be followed by a summer without trades of consequence that can improve the roster, due to a lack of valuable assest, I’m worried for this team.

I’m worried that Brad Treliving see’s this free agency as his best opportunity to change the direction of the club. I’m worried that he see’s the few DNA changing players as more valuable than they are. I’m worried that he will act as his own worst enemy, as Dubas did before him and so many more did before Dubas. At the end of the day, I guess I’m simply worried that Brad Treliving is like all the rest.

Hopefully we’re in for a surprise.