The Leafs just opened a little more capspace by trading Joseph Woll and Simon Benoit, whose combined caphit comes in at about $5M.
As of this writing the Leafs roster breakdown looks something like this:
Forwards:
Signed: Auston Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares, Matthews Knies, Max Domi (IR, possible LTIR), Dakota Joshua, Steve Lorentz, Easton Cowan
RFA: Nicholas Robertson, Matias Maccelli, Jacob Quillan
UFA: Calle Jarnkrok
Defense:
Signed: Morgan Rielly, Chris Tanev, Jake McCabe, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Brandon Carlo, Philippe Myers
RFA: Emil Andrea
UFA: Troy Stecher
Goalies:
Signed: Anthony Stolarz, Dennis Hildeby
RFA: Samuel Ersson
All of the above players played a minimum of 20 games with the Maple Leafs or their respective clubs last year. The total number of players signed is 8 forwards, 6 defenders and 2 goalies. It’s expected that Jacob Quillan will be re-signed and will play a depth role with the big club once again, while Bo Groulx played very well in 13 games with the Leafs and has a shot at occupying a 4th line role. Nicholas Robertson and Matias Maccelli are on the “unknown” list. Returning is possible, but the general consensus is that neither will be back with the Leafs next season.
Meanwhile, you have to assume that the recently acquired Emil Andrea will come to terms with his new club and will draw in as the 6th or 7th defender when the puck drops on the 2026-27 NHL season. That would give the team 7 defenders signed, while there are rumours that Troy Stecher is also likely to return.
Artur Akhtyamov has been turning heads at the AHL level and it appears that he will be considered the 3rd string goalie next season. While the team will be in the market for more depth at that position, it would appear that their plans at the NHL level are set, unless they surprise us and move on from Anthony Stolarz, while also acquiring a replacement for him.
The cole’s notes are this:
The team has little to do in terms of goalies.
They do have to sign and/or trade for some forwards. They need a 3C for sure, or they could add a 2C, which would push John Tavares down the lineup. They also need somebody to play at right wing in their top 6, as there isn’t anything there after William Nylander. While some are hoping for Alex Tuch, it’s more likely that he stays in the U.S., forcing the Leafs to find a cheap, stop-gap solution for their middle 6 RW needs. They also hold the 1st overall selection in the draft in 10 days. Assuming they take one of Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg, that would mean they add a middle six left winger for cheap as well. While there is work to be done, their needs aren’t exactly the kind that will cost you players that demand $10M plus per season.
Lastly, they also have work to do on the blueline. The defense simply wasn’t good enough last year, so while they do have a full stable of defenders signed, they need to switch some of those players out. GM John Chayka just made his first adjustment to the roster by sending out Simon Benoit and taking Emil Andrea in, which will assist in fixing their mobility issues, but you have to assume that they’d like to go further down that road.
Lastly, it’s believed that Morgan Rielly has submitted a list of teams that he’d be interested in joining this summer, while he’s also open to considering additional teams if a deal is favourable to the Leafs. Depending on what they do with him in terms of taking back salary, they could have more capspace on their hands than the current $27M they have open.
Which brings up to the point of this.
The rumour is that John Carlson would like to go to Florida and while they don’t have the same capspace that the Leafs have, we saw that they would be willing to stretch the term out in order to get a deal done, similar to what they did with Brad Marchand. If the Leafs aren’t keen on signing Carlson to a long term deal, they have the means to shorten his contract immensely, while also coming close to, or matching, the dollar figure presented by a club like the Panthers.
If the Leafs were to overpay Carlson on a short term, high average deal, he would solve their #1D problem for the immediate future, while also giving them the flexibility to re-sign Auston Matthews and/or Gavin McKenna when (or if, in #34s case) their time comes. What I’d propose is a 2 year deal, with an AAV of $15M, give or take. This would be the equivalent of a 5 year, $6M AAV from either the Panthers or another favourable club with limited capspace, such as the Tampa Bay Lightning.
While long term security wouldn’t be given to Carlson, it’s this type of creative move that would help improve the club in the short term and show their captain that they are serious about winning. At 36 years old, Carlson shouldn’t necessarily be looking for security in term anyway, he should be more concerned with getting as much on his next contract as possible. This is the same scenario that Brad Marchand faced and it’s why he forced Florida to sign him well into his 40s. This time around the Leafs have the means to give the player the same bag of money as their competitors, while not risking their long term future.
Most will immediately worry about the possibility of Carlson’s caphit preventing the team from adding other high end players, as they would risk not having the space to fit them onto the roster. My response would simply be this; the Leafs could add Carlson to the roster today with a caphit of $15M and still have $12M left to fill out their roster. If they turn to the likes of Bo Groulx and Jacob Quillan to start the year on the 4th line, that would allow them plenty of capspace to fill out the rest of the forward group. This is also in a world where they keep Morgan Rielly on the roster. If Rielly is traded it would only open up more capspace and/or fill more roster spots, assuming they don’t take on more than his $7.5M. This would only help solidify the argument that this type of deal is one the Leafs could offer and easily live with in the short term.
For what it’s worth, this is exactly what they should have done with Patrick Marleau as well. The 3rd year of his contract was the problem and was the ultimate reason that they had to pay to trade him. Instead of a 3 year deal with a $6M AAV, Marleau could have been had on a 2 year deal with a $9M AAV. They had the extra capspace at the time, but opted to pay him the dollar amount he wanted, but over more years than they needed to. It’s when their stars were set to cash in that his contract becamse a problem, but if handled correctly that wouldn’t have been an issue. Over the next 2 years the Leafs simply don’t have any major contracts to sign and with the cap expected to jump again next summer, it wouldn’t keep them from once again being active in the free agent market a year from now.
What this type of contract would accomplish, besides giving the Leafs a proven #1 defender for 2 years, is freeing up capspace when Auston Matthews and Easton Cowan are due for their next deals. Freeing up that space would give them the freedom to re-sign those players to whatever deals they would reasonably demand. That’s also the summer that Connor McDavid becomes a free agent, for those that are dreaming big. There is a universe where Auston Matthews and John Carlson’s contracts end, only to be replaced by McDavid’s $20M (I presume lol) caphit.
On a 2 year deal the issue of Carlson possibly regressing and becoming an anchor is negated. In fact, it’s more reasonable to believe that his wouldn’t be his final deal in the NHL, as he would only be 38 once it concluded.
Lastly, if you compare this to the risk of signing Darren Raddysh to a long term deal, which he’ll surely want (and get), because he has never had this type of opportunity before, or signing Rasmus Andersson, who is a far less effective point produce and PP QB than Carlson, it only makes more sense for the Leafs. Likewise, if you think of Carlson as a free wallet that only costs a lot of extra capspace, as compared to a player that you would have to give up legitimate assets for, such as Dougie Hamilton, then you also have to feel this is a better direction for the club.
For this writer, I simply can’t find any fault in backing up the money truck to John Carlson’s door on July 1st and offering him a short term deal that he simply can’t refuse.