Yesterday it was reported that the team could be without top defender Chris Tanev for the rest of the regular season, but we also learned that Dakota Joshua is out long term. For a run down on the injury bug, I’ll turn it over to Anna Dua.
As we all know in Toronto, a “week” long prognosis, such as the one given to TOI/GP leader Jake McCabe, can easily stretch into a month or more. If that is the case we should all be prepared for more than a few losses over the next couple of weeks. Nobody else on the team can do what McCabe and Tanev can do and that’s especially true for the player that sits 2nd in TOI/GP, Morgan Rielly, who is mired in the worst defensive season of his career.
While it is positive to hear that Brandon Carlo could soon return from injury, we should also remember that to begin the season he was struggling. The hope for me is that he can play well enough to increase his trade value as the team heads toward the trade deadline, which is scheduled for March 6th.
Also out indefinitely will be Anthony Stolarz and the aforementioned Dakota Joshua (lacerated kidney). Joshua started very slow in Toronto, but had begun to move in the right direction over the past month. For a player that missed a stretch of time not too long ago due to testicular cancer, this one has to sting a little more.
The question now is where does this leave the team? Being without Tanev and McCabe for the next few games wouldn’t be a big deal on it’s own in any other season, but with the team sitting 4pts out of a wild card spot, while 5 other clubs sit between them and that position in the standings, every point matters ten fold. One of the teams that stand in their way is the Florida Panthers, who the Leafs face tonight, while Thursday’s opponent, the Philadelphia Flyers, occupy the 1st wild card position. These aren’t just random points in January, these are huge games that desperately need to be won.
On the flip side of the coin the team is tied for 2nd last in the Eastern Conference, just 2pts up on the Columbus Blue Jackets. They’re also in a 5-way tie for 19th place in the NHL. Among all of this is the looming issue of the Boston Bruins owning Toronto’s 1st round selection this year, which is top 5 protected. As it stands the team is just 5pts ahead of the 30th placed Calgary Flames, which makes it just as likely for them to fall in to the top 5 of the NHL draft as it does for them to make the playoffs… statistically. If we were speaking about any other team I would say that it’s far too early to count them out, but we’re talking about the Leafs here.
Considering this teams track record in terms of showing up when it matters, I would argue that they are closer to the NHLs basement than they are to a playoff spot and would even go so far as to say it’s impossible for them to make the playoffs at this point in time. Expecting them to battle throughout the entire 2nd half as if their season was on the line is akin to asking them to show up in a Game 7 and we know that they simply don’t do that.
This group doesn’t battle when it matters and it already matters. With the loss of Tanev, Joshua and McCabe, it actually matters far more, in fact.
The focus now should be on securing a top 5 selection in this years draft. The shopping and sale of pending UFAs (Scott Laughton, Bobby McMann), as well as the sale of some pending RFAs (Matias Maccelli, Nicholas Robertson) should be their top priority. Beyond that it makes sense to shop some players with term, such as Brandon Carlo, Max Domi and Anthony Stolarz (if he can return to action and play well, that is). Once that work is done they can turn their attention toward the leadership group of Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Morgan Rielly to determine their long term futures in Toronto, but lets not get a head of ourselves, as much as I love to talk about moving on from those three players it’s simply not in the cards at this point in time. However, with Auston Matthews inching towards the end of his current contract, those discussions are quickly approaching. I still maintain that he won’t return to Toronto once his contract expires, but again, that’s a discussion for another day.
For now, they have an opportunity to secure a top 5 selection in a deep draft and they need to act on making that happen. Hesitance is for the weak.