There has been some movement around the NHL already this year, with the biggest moves being between the Calgary Flames and Vancouver Canucks. Now that the All-Star Game is over and the schedule is barreling towards the March 8th trade deadline, expect things to start picking up even more.
As of now there are simply rumours and they’re revolving around the Leafs and Flames:
Now, I don’t know if Nick has ever broken a trade before, but I do know that I enjoy his articles and he seems like a good lad. Maybe he’s in the know, maybe not, that doesn’t matter. What does matter is he’s given us something to talk about, as has Elliotte Friedman.
This is from Friedman’s most recent 32 Thoughts Article:
“3. One exception may be Toronto. If the Maple Leafs trade this year’s first, they will have one pick in the top two rounds of the next three drafts (a first-rounder in 2026). It’s not impossible they decide to move it, but they definitely prefer the opposite and aren’t interested in moving Easton Cowan, Matthew Knies or Fraser Minten (their most asked-about youth).
One case where I do believe they would have done so is if they had acquired both Chris Tanev and Nikita Zadorov, as they tried before the latter’s move to the Lions Gate Bridge. There’s no doubt in my mind the Maple Leafs want Tanev, but Calgary is holding to see if that first-rounder comes into play. It’s poker, but if Toronto really wanted to do that, it would be done already. We will see. He would help them, and they know it. (Maybe Toronto solves this by trying to trade for both Tanev and Noah Hanifin.) They are looking for another centre, as well.”
Here’s a link to his blog, which is the hockey article I most look forward to reading: https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/32-thoughts-where-will-the-coyotes-call-home-after-mullett-arena/
If we combine both of these rumours it might make sense that the Leafs are trying to nab a defender and a centre from the Flames, but I find it hard to believe that any of the Flames’ centres make sense in a deal at this time.
Nazem Kadri, who Leafs fans know well, could conceivably be on the move. He’s 33 years old and has a caphit of 7M for 5 more years after this one. He’s playing well enough, but the Leafs don’t have the capspace to accommodate that type of deal and he has a full NMC. While he could waive for the right situation, it has to be a 2-way street and again, the Leafs aren’t the team that can make that happen. They also have captain Mikael Backlund, who is the most ideal 3C that you could ever ask for. He, too, holds a full NMC and in my opinion is less likely to waive that than Kadri is. With a caphit of 4.5M after this season, it’s possible that the Leafs could squeeze that in over the next 2 years, but that would mean taking themselves out of the running in terms of fitting in some legitimate top 4 defenders after this season ends. If this is the way that management is leaning, my concern over their ability to build a team, which has already gone from bad to worse, will go to worser or worstest…. or maybe something even more negative.
Outside of those two options the Flames don’t really have any true centres, so if the Leafs are speaking to them about forwards it would have to be another winger. Considering the makeup of the team and their limited capspace, my hope is that they aren’t spending assets to bolster the wings, as they have enough of that on the roster as is.
Instead, it’s my hope that they try to pull off the unlikely scenario of trading for Noah Hanifin AND Chris Tanev, while securing an extension for both players as part of the deal. On the surface this seems like an impossible task, in terms of capspace, but Toronto would simply have to make some concessions that, in my opinion, should be easy to make.
For starters, they would have to send Calgary back some useable pieces with value. Timothy Liljegren and Connor Timmins should be part of the trade and would hold value to the Flames moving forward. Liljegren, especially, is an interesting player that still holds the potential to be a 2nd pair defender. He’s worth at least a 2nd round pick in todays market, but likely more than that. Timmins holds less value, but his $1.1M caphit would have to be moved in order to make things work. The one player that Calgary would need to take, while being reluctant to do so, would likely be Ryan Reaves. He hasn’t been a fit in Toronto and his $1.35M caphit is simply too much for what he brings to the table. It’s nice, in theory, to have somebody that is willing to fight to keep the star players safe, but he simply doesn’t bring the required intimidation factor to make that a reality.
Those three players combined make up for $3.85M towards the cap. At 50% retained, Tanev and Hanifin would combine for a caphit of $4.725M, which means the Leafs would be all but up to even in terms of dollar-in-dollar-out. The trick from there is to add enough picks and/or prospect to make the value work. If they’re willing to move this year’s 1st in a deal that would see Hanifin added to the team with an extension intact, I’d be okay with it, but it would still hurt to see the Leafs with so few picks in the coming drafts. Meanwhile, it almost feels as if this would be a “youth for aging players” deal, but Hanifin jus turned 27, while Liljegren is set to turn 25 soon and Timmins will be 26 by the time next season starts. That’s not an issue in my opinion.
While the cap doesn’t work perfectly, it’s not something that can’t happen. The Leafs may have to shed a little salary elsewhere on the roster. That could come in the form of trading Martin Jones for a pick, or demoting a player that probably doesn’t deserve to be demoted, with the promise of getting them back on the roster come playoff time.
Lastly, it also creates a scenario where adding a centre to play on the 3rd line would be tricky. It’s my contention that they need to focus far less on the forward group at this time though, and make a big play on the blueline.
Adding Hanifin and Tanev, to create a top 6 defense group of Morgan Rielly, TJ Brodie, Noah Hanifin, Chris Tanev, Jake McCabe and Simon Benoit would most certainly register as a big play. All the better is the fact that with the expiring contracts of Brodie, Domi and Bertuzzi, they could keep those players around for a while.