We’ll keep rolling along with centre trade targets until Brad Treliving decides to get off his keister and make a move. This time we’ll turn our attention toward the New York Islanders and Jean Gabriel Pageau.
I’d like to point out that most (or all) of these profiles are going to read a lot a like. The reason for this is simple; the Leafs are looking for a 3rd line, two-way centre with term and players who fit that role adopt certain habits. So:
A proficient penalty killer: Pageau, like Scott Laughton and Jake Evans, leads his teams forward group in TOI/GP while shorthanded.
A good faceoff man: Pageau has a 60% win rate on the dot. That’s not just good for his team, that’s among the best in the NHL. In fact, he is tied for 4th in FO% in the NHL with fellow teammate, Bo Horvat (minimum 20 games played + minimum 100 faceoffs taken).
Defensive zone starts: Pageau starts less than half his shifts in the defensive zone, which is a normal occurrence for a defense first player. However, his 49.6% OZ starts are closer to even than most.
A lack of PP time, which generally means a lack of top end scoring: Most of these players aren’t 1st unit powerplay guys, but that isn’t what the Leafs are after at the moment anyway. They do need to help the team’s secondary scoring, but it’s very unlikely that Treliving nabs a player that is scoring at, or near, a point-per-game pace. That type of addition is unrealistic considering the situation the Leafs find themselves in (lack or capspace, lack of top end assets to trade etc).
The similarities in the players means that we’ll likely talk more about their contracts, age and style of play as a fit, rather than how well they fit the role. For example, many fans want Brayden Schenn because he is a bigger and, visually, a more physical player than somebody like Pageau. Yet the asking price in a trade is far greater than the other players we’ve spoken of, while his contract is larger and has more term. There’s risk in adding a player his age with term to your roster. So, you have to ask yourself if the price they want for Schenn is worth the extra grit that he brings to the lineup, especially when you consider the fact that Pageau has registered 120 hits on the season himself. While Pageau’s 5’11” 180lb frame is likely delivering less devastating hits, he’s still a player that is willing to throw his body around.
If the team wants experience they aren’t gaining it by adding anybody else over Pageau. With 86 playoff games under his belt, where he has produced 24 goals and 43pts, which, when compared to his regular season statistics, shows a player that doesn’t slow down in the playoffs, shows you’re getting a player that can find a way to produce when it matters. The only criticism you can give him here is the fact that he hasn’t won a Stanley Cup yet, but with a career split between the Ottawa Senators and New York Islanders, that’s more about where he has played, rather than a knock on the player himself. He has been to the Conference Finals on 3 separate occasions, he just hasn’t gotten over the hump, but I’m sure he’d relish another opportunity.
The downsides of adding Pageau aren’t plentiful, but they are there. Again, he doesn’t add size to your lineup, so if that’s something you think they need this isn’t your guy. However, I wouldn’t concentrate on adding more size up front, as I think they could use more speed if anything. His contract is also a detriment, due to being signed to a $5M per season deal that has one additional season attached. While $5M wouldn’t normally be worrisome, it appears that the Islanders want to clear capspace in order to make changes over the summer, so they may be reluctant to retain salary. If the Islanders were willing to hold back $1-2M it would make a world of difference for the Leafs. Lastly, the Islanders aren’t entering into full rebuild mode, so they may want to cash in on a player that still has some term left. If he were a pending UFA the price may drop, just to ensure that they recoup something instead of allowing him to walk for nothing, but that isn’t the case. I don’t think they’d look for a 1st and/or a top prospect, like Philadelphia is doing with Laughton, but I also don’t think he’d be that much cheaper to acquire than Laughton. The hope, if I’m targeting the player, is that the price doesn’t go over a 2nd and 3rd round package of picks, but they’d be within their rights to ask for a little more in my opinion, especially if there’s salary retention involved.
At the end of the day I’d put Pageau above some of the others we spoke about, because his trade price is likely lower, while he’s still very capable of filling the role the Leafs need filled. The biggest issue still lies with Toronto’s lack of capspace. Adding Pageau without retention or sending back salary isn’t possible, in fact they may need both of those things to happen.