Unfortunately the only topic circulating around Leafs Nation right now is where their 1st round selection from this season will land.
Top 5, or in the hands of the Boston Bruins?
The last time I wrote here I was very clear in how things had to go. They had to win, non-stop. The simple explanation is this….
Forfeit this years pick to the Bruins. Win as much as possible in order to make it as low of a selection as you can.
Forfeit next season’s pick to the Philadelphia Flyers. If they don’t hand that top 10 protected pick to Philadelphia, it pushes to an unprotected 2028 selection.
That’s the summer that you sell Auston Matthews and William Nylander and change the core entirely, while also owing your 2028 1st round selection. This means that you get to sell those stars without worrying where you finish in the standings the following year.
Any other process would leave the Leafs in a situation where they are potentially handing a 1st round pick in 2028 to Philadelphia that is top 5 in the draft. That should be avoided.
Now, if they do pick top 5 this year all is not lost. It simply changes the way you approach the next couple of seasons. However, this is the route I’d take if I had the opportunity to pull strings around MLSE.
As it stands, the Leafs haven’t managed to follow any clear path. They have garnered some points, but not enough to push Boston’s pick out of the top 10. It’s also just enough to ensure the unlikelihood of that pick landing in the top 5.
While it’s possible that the St. Louis Blues can catch and pass them in the standings, you also need the San Jose Sharks and Winnipeg Jets to do the same. After that there are two draft lotteries that have to take place. If the Leafs end the season with the 5th overall selection, theres a solid chance that a team behind them in the standings wins the lottery, which would push their pick to 6th and into the hands of the Bruins. With that in mind, holding pick #4 or better would allow everyone to sigh a breath of relief. In order for that to happen the New York Rangers or the Chicago Blackhawks would also have to pass them in the standings, alongside the aforementioned three teams.
That’s unlikely, to say the least.
With all of this in mind, it’s still worth your time to cheer your team into the win column. They have 11 games remaining this season. A record of 6-3-3 or better would find them landing high enough in the standings for my liking. If they can’t accomplish that the Bruins will be assured a top 10 selection.
Either way, the trade that brought Brandon Carlo to Toronto should cost Brad Treliving his job.