The 2026 – 2028 1st Round Picks and What To Do On Draft Day
I’ll start this off by simply stating that this has been the Gavin McKenna draft for a very long time.
It’s been less than 24 hours since the Leafs won the lottery and we’ve already seen people suggest they they’d take Ivar Stenberg or Chase Reid over Gavin McKenna, while others have suggested that they should trade back in the draft to recoup more 1st round selections.
I understand the debate, I guess, due to the team being so incredibly short on viable prospects and picks, while also wanting management to make the proper selection come draft day.
However, this IS the Gavin McKenna draft and with all due respect to Ivar Stenberg, if the Leafs do select at #1, I would be shocked if they didn’t take McKenna.
“If they do select a player at #1” is what I said, so we should address trading back as well.
This draft has been said to be very deep, with the top 5-6 players having top line and/or top pair potential. This makes you wonder; is it worth trading back to recoup assets and hopefully build a better team later?
My answer is very simple and it’s this: No, you shouldn’t trade back because the Leafs don’t own their 1st round selections for the next 2 years and technically neither of those picks are protected. There are rumours that the Philadelphia Flyers believe that the 2027 1st rounder that’s owed to them by the Leafs is now unprotected and are currently in the process of asking the NHL for clarification. I expect that we’ll find out what exactly is happening there soon enough but this is their basic stance.
The Leafs traded their 2027 1st to Philadelphia in the Scott Laughton trade and it was top 10 protected. If that selection was in the top 10 then the Flyers would have received the Leafs’ 2028 1st round selection and that would be unprotected. From there the Leafs traded their 2026 1st round selection to the Boston Bruins in the Brandon Carlo trade, with top 5 protection. The hitch is that if the Leafs’ 2027 1st round selection is in the top 10, the Leafs can then choose to give it to either the Flyers or the Bruins, while the other team would receive their 2028 1st round selection, which would be unprotected. The assumption is that the Leafs would give the Flyers the pick in the top 10 if it landed there, because the Bruins are a divisional rival, but there’s something in the wording that has made the Flyers believe that they should own the Leafs’ 2027 1st round selection outright. Either way, the Leafs HAVE to give somebody their 2027 1st round pick, no matter where it lands, as well as their 2028 1st round pick.
That’s how I understand it, but I have to be honest, I really don’t know that what I just told you is 100% correct.
What we do know is their 2028 and 2027 1st round selections are technically unprotected, because they have to go somewhere. With that knowledge in mind you can’t gather top prospects with your own 1st round selections for the next 2 years, so it only makes sense to be as competitive as possible, as soon as possible. In short, there are only two routes that are proven effective in the current NHL and they are rebuilding or competing. So, compete it is!!
If they elect to compete immediately then you have to keep your 1st overall selection. No other player in this draft, except for Ivar Stenberg (maybe) will help you climb the standings quicker than Gavin McKenna. He’ll play in the NHL next season and while I don’t expect him to be a 60+ point winger out of the gate, he’ll at least be a middle 6 scoring option and a threat on one of the powerplay units.
There’s just one last option in terms of trading back in the draft that would tick both the “compete now” and “improve later” boxes. Imagine a world where the Chicago Blackhawks can’t live without Gavin McKenna on their team. Now imagine that they approach the Leafs with both the 4th overall selection and Anton Frondell, who was selected at #3 in the 2025 draft and projects to be a #1C in the NHL. I’ve lost you already? I’m not surprised. In this extremely unlikely scenario you would receive a player that posted 9pts in 12 games to end the 2026 regular season, which is more or less a guy that could jump in as a 2C or 3C immediately. That would help the Leafs compete right now, while they’d also receive the 4th overall selection and would improve down the road.
Side note on Anton Frondell; he posted 28pts in 43 games in the SHL in his draft +1 year and then joined the Hawks, where he scored 9pts in 12 games. Ivar Stenberg posted 33pts in 43 games in the same league in his draft year and they say his 2-way play is strong. Yes, I still think this is the McKenna draft, but Stenberg is a very impressive young player and I will trust the scouts if they opt for him over McKenna.
The Current Roster
If you’ve agreed with me so far that the team has to compete immediately, then the next question is this; what holes do the Leafs need to fill in order to get back to the playoffs?
We already know that the team wants their defense to be more mobile. I’d argue that the coach has to have something to do with that, but we’ll get to that soon enough
In terms of mobile defenders you can add via free agency or trade. Free agency actually looks good in terms of filling that need this season, with two top notch players that are still unsigned. They are Rasmus Andersson and Darren Raddysh and both come with risks.
Andersson is more of a 40pt player and he’ll be 30 years old when the 2027 season begins, but he’s proven and he isn’t lost in his own zone. He’ll cost a fair chunk on the open market, but at least you know what you’re getting, even if you will have to overpay (and you WILL have to overpay). He’s a top 4 RD that has a solid shot and can help in all situations. There’s nothing to hate about what he brings to your team.
Darren Raddysh just had a breakout season and he did so at the right time in his career. He just turned 30 as well and jumped from 37pts to 70pts from one season to the next. He’s a Toronto born player that I wrote about in the past. The short and long on him is that he takes time to build his stock at every level of play (Junior, AHL, now the NHL) and then he has a breakout season and jumps to the next level. At this point there are no higher leagues to jump to so the only question we have is if he can sustain his 70pt production. It’s said that the Lighting aren’t keen to pay him what he’s asking for, which definitely raises red flags, but at this stage of the game for the Leafs they will need to take some serious risks. I think Raddysh can help their powerplay and due to every team having the same concerns about his potential inconsistency, it’s possible that he’ll have a high caphit but on a mid term deal. It may be worth the risk.
Outside of those two options you have a group of players that bring even more questions. Unless you can convince John Carlson to join the Leafs on a short term, big money deal, which I would absolutely support, you have to hope that GM John Chayka and his 5 computer screens full of advanced statistics can predict which UFA defender is the next Darren Raddysh. Maybe that’s Nick Blankenburg, the 5’9″ RD that is currently playing for the Colorado Avalanche in the 2nd round? Maybe you lean less on players like Simon Benoit and Brandon Carlo and turn to somebody like Mario Ferraro, who plays a style more akin to McCabe and Tanev in that he plays defense first, but isn’t a 6’5″ slow skating defender?
One player that I would absolutely make space for is Logan Stanley. I’ve been screaming about “skilled goons” for years now and he fits the bill. Stanley won’t help the mobility issue, but he’s 6’7″ 230lbs and would NOT have allowed Radko Gudas to skate away untouched after the Auston Matthews incident. The big man from Waterloo can be the Leafs’ answer to the Nikita Zadorov’s and Matt Rempe’s of the world, while also being able to play 15-17 minutes a night and help your penalty kill. He just had a career high 26pts this season and at 27 years old it’s easy to imagine him being able to produce that much each season for the next 3-5 years. Maybe a 3rd pair of Stanley with OEL wouldn’t be a terrible thing to watch?
If you’re wondering where all of these players I’m naming will fit, that’s very simple. There are just 3 defenders that are currently under contract that I would retain for next season. They are Chris Tanev, Jake McCabe and Oliver Ekman-Larsson. That would mean trading all of Morgan Rielly, Brandon Carlo, Simon Benoit and Tyler Myers, while allowing Troy Stecher to walk via free agency. It’s that type of complete overhaul that I believe this team needs on the back end. This goes double for Carlo, Benoit and Myers, who drag the mobility of the entire group down collectively. If they opt to keep any of those three, it should only be one of them.
As for the forward group, it’s a little less chaotic.
The team has Matthews and Tavares and as it stands they are both still solid top 6 centres. Matthew Knies and William Nylander also play in the top 6 on every team in the NHL. Gavin McKenna (if they select him) and Easton Cowan are likely to be able to jump in and out of the top 6, while logging some time on the 3rd line. What Cowan and (potentially) McKenna will create is a backlog on the left side. It’s generally accepted that the long time relationship between Max Domi and the newly minted front office staff of Mats Sundin and John Chayka will see Domi stay in Toronto until the end of his current contract, at minimum. However, Nicholas Robertson and Matias Maccelli give the Leafs a glut of small, skilled wingers that shoot left and they aren’t as tightly tied to the front office. Both players will be RFA on July 1st and if the team can’t trade them I think they should allow them the opportunity to walk via free agency. With both players being under 25 and having scored over 30pts this season, I don’t see why they wouldn’t be able to receive a couple of mid round picks in return for them. That’s nothing to get excited about but having too many of the same type of player isn’t a smart move and they simply appear to be the odd guys out, so recouping any type of return just makes sense.
If the Leafs’ front office agrees with me then what we’re left with is this:
Knies Matthews Nylander
(1st overall selection) Tavares (Empty)
Cowan (Empty) Domi
Joshua (Empty) Lorentz
Lorentz is likely your 13th forward, although I see a lot of people that don’t like the player. I see nothing wrong with having him around, as he’s cheap, he’s an effective 4th liner and he wants to be a Leaf. He isn’t hurting you and he’s easy to like. I really don’t see the issue here other than he’s slow and does nothing to dazzle.
If Lorentz is your 13th forward then you have four empty spaces, but only two of those are big additions (2RW and 3C). Once again it’s impossible to predict the trade route, but if you consider free agency there isn’t a ton of top 6 options at RW. Alex Tuch is the obvious prize, but it’s looking more and more likely that he could stay in Buffalo. I think if he leaves Buffalo it’s very unlikely that he heads to Toronto anyway, as the American may see sunnier skies elsewhere… both literally and figuratively. I do wonder about players such as Viktor Arvidsson if you’re not overly worried about adding more size to the top 6, while Mason Marchment would be a great option if you are. Boone Jenner would be a solid addition at 3C, as the 2-way centre may help mask the mistakes of youngsters like Cowan and/or McKenna, as well as the veteran Domi. As for other UFA’s that can play 3C, the options are extremely thin. I’ll be interested to see what they do there.
Lastly I’d like to talk about the elephant in the room and that is the rumour that Auston Matthews still hasn’t decided on whether or not he’ll return to the Leafs next season.
Auston Matthews
The fact that he’s been here for so long and has only missed the playoffs once, and then immediately begins to contemplate if he’s done in Toronto is very telling to me. I’ve never felt like he’s truly loved being a Leaf. I’ve always felt as if he has tolerated it and knew it was necessary to stay, while also likely feeling that he owed it to the team that drafted him to be here for a while, but that has been a feeling and not fact. With that said, if he already has doubts about staying then how committed can he really be? I’d ask what they’re waiting for and suggest trading him immediately, but the teams GM has only been on the clock for a couple of days so it will take some time to figure this out. However, if the Captain is to be moved then I hope they do it quickly and aim for two major pieces, with a few futures added in. One piece has to be a centre with top line potential and the other a defender with top pair potential. Our very own Slightly Stootts suggested Quinton Byfield and Brandt Clarke out of L.A. and I think that is exactly the type of package you’re looking for in this scenario. There really aren’t a lot of (or any more?) teams that can offer the same package as that. I’m not convinced that the Kings want to move Clarke when you consider that Doughty is on the wrong side of 35, but with Anze Kopitar riding into the sunset it does make sense to go for a 1C like Matthews.
A common misconception is that trading Matthews launches you into a rebuild. That’s simply not true, but it depends highly on the return from the trade. If you trade Matthews for nothing but picks and prospects that aren’t close to NHL ready then yes, you would hurt your teams chances at competing. However, if you aim for the aforementioned Byfield and Clarke, which would represent young NHL players that have yet to hit their ceiling, then you could stay competitive while improving your future. On top of that John Tavares would be key. Now, I’m not saying that Tavares is the long term answer at 1C, but I will say that he scored 8 goals and 17pts in 16 games down the stretch and that was after Matthews went down to injury. He finished the year with 31 goals and 71pts in 82 games. While most fans are saying he’s getting old and slowing down, I feel as if he’s still simply trucking along steadily and producing low end 1C numbers, even when he’s thrust into the 1C position. With that in mind, a Matthews trade that would bring back the likes of Byfield and Clarke would push Tavares up the lineup for a short while, which would allow the younger/next generation of players time to further develop. Retaining veteran players that are able to shelter the next generation (Tavares, Tanev, McCabe) would be key to improving the future of the franchise, while staying competitive today.
If the rumours are false then all of this is a moot point. However, the team needs to figure it out quickly and move Matthews if he isn’t committed to the franchise.
Craig Berube
I honestly believe that part of Matthews decision rests with their head coach. Berube’s system doesn’t favour some of the Leafs’ star players and Matthews is among them. Craig Berube has been here for two seasons now and when you hear people talk about the regression of Auston Matthews they say he hasn’t looked the same for… two years. I don’t believe in coincidences.
Morgan Rielly has never been a defensive stalwart. His strong suit is producing points, it’s as simple as that. However, his worst years have been the past two seasons as well and his offensive numbers have declined in both years under Berube.
William Nylander, you’d think, is the exception. He has simply continued to produce points at an elite level. However, while they say they like each other while on camera (they have to say that), how many times have we seen Berube yelling at Nylander, while #88 simply ignores him and does his own thing? Nylander never bought into Berube’s system for a moment, so wasn’t affected. That’s my theory and I’m not budging from it. If you don’t agree I won’t argue because this is behind-the-scenes theories that aren’t fact related. To each their own, but this is my take after two years of reading between the lines.
The team stopped playing for Berube this season, that much is clear. So while I understand that Chayka wants to give Berube a chance, he also needs to have candid conversations with his leadership group about their head coach and take what they say to heart. I feel that if he does that, Craig Berube won’t be here next season. On top of that, if he doesn’t fire Berube because he doesn’t want to waste a move like that (GMs generally only get to hire a couple of coaches before their time runs out), then he’s doing the team a disservice. Who the proper replacement is, I don’t know, but I do know Berube isn’t the coach to lead this team into the future. The players they have and will have (McKenna) are possession players, they want the puck on their stick, but Berube doesn’t teach that. They need somebody that allows them to lean into their skill, while also showing them how to be responsible defensively.
The Goaltending
Last topic.
Dennis Hildeby is no longer waiver exempt, which means he’d have to pass through waivers if they want to send him to the AHL Toronto Marlies next season. It’s for this reason that many are suggesting the Leafs trade one of Anthony Stolarz or Joseph Woll.
For me, the move is to keep all three in the NHL. I understand that it’s a known problem to have three goalies on an NHL roster, due to them not getting enough game action. However, with the injury history of Stolarz and Woll, I just don’t see a scenario where it becomes an issue. Stolarz is not durable, he played just 26 games this season, while Hildeby played 20. It’s also not as if this is a new development. Stolarz has never played more than 34 games in a single NHL season, at 32 years old.
If you attempt to send Hildeby to the minors you could lose him for nothing. If you trade him and he becomes a star you could look stupid (again). You get to avoid both potential scenarios.
If you trade Stolarz and Woll gets hurt (or vice versa), then you’re left with Hildeby as your starting netminder, while Artur Aktyamov would have to serve as his backup. Once again, we should look back at the fact that the team has to give away their 2027 1st round selection. While I do believe that both of those young goalies possess solid potential, I wouldn’t want to see the team end up in a situation where they’re entrusting their playoff lives in both of them, while also potentially handing over a high end 1st round pick.
A couple of other teams ran a three goalie rotation this year. I would simply study what they did right/wrong and learn from it. For a single season I would hold onto all three goalies and let them sort it out.