As we continue down the Prediction Season road, we’ll take a look at how the Atlantic Division standings may fall into place by season’s end. Again, like my previous predictions, this is always a fun exercise because of the silliness of it. A major injury, a new coach that props up or deflates a team, a lost leader or a young team that continues to mature, there are so many factors to consider when you look at how things could come together, that getting it right is nearly impossible. With that in mind, we’ll make a few bold predictions, but most won’t shock you.
#1 Tampa Bay Lightning
Key Additions: Jake Guentzel, Ryan McDonagh
Key Subtractions: Steven Stamkos, Mikhail Sergachev, Tanner Jeannot
The Lightning will once again return to the top of the division standings this season. To begin last season the Lightning were without Andrei Vasilevskiy, arguably the best goaltender in the world today. Vasilevskiy started over 60 games the two years prior and 50+ games in 7 of his previous 8 seasons, including last year. That’s a lot of work for a goaltender in the current NHL, so starting a year without the backbone of your team was understandably tough for the group. When Vasilevskiy returned he wasn’t exactly himself. He finished the season with a 0.900SV% and 2.90GAA, which represents career worst totals in both categories. He regained his footing as the season progressed, which makes it easy to predict a return to form for the monstrous goaltender and a hot start for the Lightning.
Along with Vasilevskiy, the Bolts were also without Mikhail Sergachev for large portions of the season. While Sergachev will be missing once again, after a surprise trade to the Utah something somethings, the Lightning identified a previous mistake and re-acquired Ryan McDonagh to help the blueline stay competitive. The expectation is that we’ll see an increased role for Erik Cernak, while JJ Moser, who was acquired in the Sergachev trade and played over 20 minutes a night for the Coyotes last season, will also play top 4 minutes. With Nick Perbix, Darren Raddysh and McDonagh also in the mix, the Bolts blueline is still deep and competitive.
The mourning that followed the departure of Steven Stamkos from the Lightning was a little much. Yes, I understand he was a cornerstone piece for their group and a proven leader, but he was also willing to listen to the Toronto Maple Leafs before he signed his last contract, which makes his leaving a little less shocking, doesn’t it? Stamkos was replaced by the younger Jake Guentzel, who was on pace for over 90pts this season and should fit into the Lightning roster seamlessly. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. I wish the Leafs’ front office was this ruthless in their efforts to improve the team.
At the end of the summer the Lightning’s goaltending is still elite, their blueline took a step back but is still very deep and steady and their forward unit isn’t worse. Their jump up the standings is based mostly on the fact that they’re healthy and hungry.
#2 Boston Bruins
Key Additions: Elias Lindholm, Nikita Zadorov, Joonas Korpisalo
Key Subtractions: Linus Ullmark, Jake DeBrusk
Jeremy Swayman is still stealing the headlines in Boston for all the wrong reasons, and I hope he continues to hold out on his new contract. The team traded Linus Ullmark, which was necessary, but also gave Swayman a little more leverage in contract negotiations. The guy is going to get paid and some rumours say his asking price is $10M per season. After David Pastrnak that would make Swayman the 2nd highest paid player on the roster. If/when they finally get that sorted out the Bruins, like the Lightning, will have excellent goaltending. Swayman’s backup, Joonas Korpisalo, failed at being a starter in Ottawa last season, but he’s still a solid 2nd in the NHL.
With Charlie MacAvoy and Hampus Lindholm doing most of the heavy lifting last season, the Bruins managed to outpace the Leafs for 2nd in the Atlantic. Those players are still in the fold, as is Brandon Carlo, who placed 3rd in TOI/GP among Boston’s blueliners. Newly signed Nikita Zadorov should find himself at #4 on the Bruins depth chart and he (6’6″ 250lbs), along with Lindholm (6’4″ 225lbs) and Carlo (6’5″ 215lbs) will combine for one of the largest top 4 groups in the NHL. This blueline is big, mean and tough to play against, so it’s no wonder their goaltenders are capable of looking so good so often.
Losing Jake DeBrusk and adding Elias Lindholm was a win for the Bruins, assuming that Lindholm can regain his scoring touch. With 44pts in 75 games last season, he’ll have to if he’s going to live up to the 7 year, $7.75M per season contract he signed this summer. Lindholm will join Pavel Zacha, Charlie Coyle, Morgan Geekie and 2022 2nd round pick, Matthew Poitras, to give the Bruins a ton of options at centre. With all of Lindholm, Zacha and Coyle having experience on the wing as well, it’s simply a matter of finding the right fit and chemistry among the top 9 forwards. One would hope that Brad Marchand would continue to regress offensively, but even if his production dips he’ll still be an effective agitator and leader. Meanwhile, there’s no reason to believe that David Pastrnak won’t continue to produce 100pts or more this season. The Bruins are deep up front, while having a dose of star power at the top.
I believe Boston improved and that they could challenge the Bolts for 1st in the Atlantic. Their defensive group are mostly in their prime, their goaltending will be great again and their forwards are diverse and deep. I wish I could say differently, from a Leafs fan perspective, but as long as they continue to steal players such as Brad Marchand (3rd round), Brandon Carlo (2nd round), David Pastrnak (25th overall, should have been top 3 in his draft year) and Matthew Poitras (2nd round) who had a great start to his NHL career last season, they’ll continue to be a strong club. For now, we can all still laugh at the fact that they chose Jakub Zboril, Jake DeBrusk and Zachery Senyshyn at 13, 14 and 15th overall in the 2015 draft, while Mathew Barzal, Kyle Connor and Thomas Chabot went at 16th, 17th and 18th. I know, I know, it simply doesn’t make up for the embarrassment’s the Bruins have handed the Leafs over the years, but I need something to hold onto!!
#3 Florida Panthers
Key Additions: I guess it depends on how you define key. The Panthers didn’t add any major players.
Key Subtractions: Brandon Montour, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Vladimir Tarasenko
I think the losses from the Panthers were a little overblown. For starters, they still have Sergei Bobrovsky as their starting goaltender and, while he wasn’t an addition due to being in the system last year, Spencer Knight is expected to be his backup. Knight, once considered a top goalie prospect in the NHL, has OCD and had to take a step back to learn how to make his way through life with it for a little while. He played 45 games in the AHL last year though and has earned another shot at being an NHL backup and future starter. While Bobrovsky was once considered to be past his prime, he has lead the Panthers to back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals, with one NHL championship now under his belt. He’s a fantastic starting goaltender and that seems to be a theme in the Atlantic up to this point.
The Cats biggest loss was easily Brandon Montour. With raises needed for Gustav Forsling and Sam Reinhart, as well as Sam Bennett, Aaron Ekblad and Carter Verhaeghe on the horizon, Montour was simply priced out of Florida. The Panthers will do fine with Forsling, Ekblad and Mikkola, who all played over 20 minutes a night last season, while veterans Nate Schmidt and Dmitry Kulikov will help with their depth.
8 of Florida’s top scoring forwards from last season are back for another run. While Vladimir Tarasenko played a major part in their run to the Cup, he was obtained at the NHL trade deadline, which means the team that finished 1st in the Atlantic last year haven’t really taken a hit to their forward group.
Honestly, there isn’t a ton to say here. The Panthers lost some depth, but added a lot of league minimum players while maintaining enough of their core to make me believe that they’ll be a force again this year. The only reason I have them dropping to 3rd in the Atlantic is because they’ve played over half a season extra over the past 2 years and that can take a toll on players. I also wonder if Bobrovsky will finally take a step back as he passes the 35 year old mark.
#4 Toronto Maple Leafs
Key Additions: Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Anthony Stolarz
Key Subtraction: Ilya Samsonov, TJ Brodie, Tyler Bertuzzi
Slipping into a wild card spot, we have our very own Toronto Maple Leafs. It took 91pts to make the playoffs last season and if they have trouble in net this team may be in tough to hit that mark. Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll combined to play 52 NHL games last year and now they’ll be expected to play 41 each, in theory. Neither has ever played that much, which makes me wonder if 3rd stringer, Matt Murray, may be in line for a bigger role than even he expected. I really don’t know how else to put it, other than the Leafs tandem have shown enough to make you think they could be good, but don’t have the body of work to make me confident that they will be good. A healthy Joseph Woll, a fully matured Anthony Stolarz, and a healthy and ready Matt Murray could give the Leafs 3 viable options between the pipes. However, if Woll continues to add to his list of injuries, Stolarz buckles under the pressure of an increased role and Murray never makes it back to playing anywhere close to his old self, then the Leafs may have 3 backups at best.
TJ Brodie slowed with age. It happens to everybody eventually. That slowing down hurt his game and the Leafs blueline, as he was meant to be a top pair defender on this club. Chris Tanev will now get the honour of playing with Morgan Rielly and trying to cover up for his mistakes. While the capspace appeared to be there to sign another legitimate top 4 defender this summer, the team instead decided to spend a combined $8M per season on Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Timothy Liljegren and Jani Hakanpaa. I just….. I mean…… okay, whatever.
The forward group is 100% unchanged at this moment in time. Max Pacioretty and Steven Lorentz have signed PTO’s and while Pacioretty is expected to turn that into a contract for this season, Lorentz may not make the team at all. In order to sign Pacioretty the Leafs will have to trade somebody, with the only question being who and when? The obvious options are Ryan Reaves, David Kampf and Calle Jarnkrok, but until a deal happens it’s anybody’s guess. What we do know is it won’t be a major contract, which means we’ll be watching something very close to last season’s forward group start this season. Easton Cowan and Fraser Minten also have a shot at cracking the roster, but again, none of these players will represent major change this year.
This summer has been touted as a success by some and a failure by others for the Leafs. For me, there was too little change to justify giving the Leafs a boost in the standings and the few changes they did make weren’t impactful enough to make me believe that this team will be very different. With a new coach and Auston Matthews now donning the captaincy, maybe a change in leadership will help drive them upward, but their goaltending is questionable, their forwards aren’t better or worse and their defense simply didn’t improve enough.
#5 Ottawa Senators
Key Additions: Linus Ullmark, Nick Jensen, David Perron
Key Subtractions: Joonas Korpisalo, Jakub Chychrun, Vladimir Tarasenko
Yes, I’m predicting a return to the playoffs for the Senators, as they’ll leapfrog the Red Wings and Sabres in the standings this season. We all know that the Senators have had a talented roster for a few years now, they simply haven’t been able to put it all together. Linus Ullmark will help with that, as confidence in their goaltender will finally allow them to relax and play their game. While Anton Forsberg hasn’t been a great backup, with a lesser and more defined role, he’ll do well enough behind a true starting goaltender.
The loss of Jakub Chychrun, while adding Nick Jensen, is a loss on paper, but what the Senators had was an abundance of offensive defenders and too few players that could shut things down in their own end. Jensen will help steady the blueline, while also being capable of moving the puck out when under pressure.
While they did lose some scoring up front, a healthy Josh Norris, a full year of Shane Pinto and the additions of David Perron and some depth pieces such as Michael Amadio could cover up for that. You can expect Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Drake Batherson and Claude Giroux to continue to produce well enough as well. That amount of scoring, combined with a healthy dose of physicality in Brady Tkachuk, Zach MacEwen, Nick Cousins and Perron should mean the Senators will be a pesky team this year.
Travis Green will go into his first year behind the bench for the Sens. He’ll need to tighten things up defensively and hope that his leadership unit comes through. As long as that happens, and assuming some of their young core, like Stutzle and Sanderson take another step forward, it should mean a jump in the standings.
#6 Detroit Red Wings
Key Additions: Vladimir Tarasenko, Cam Talbot
Key Subtractions: Shayne Gostisbehere, Jake Walman, David Perron, Daniel Sprong
The Red Wings couldn’t find a solution to their goaltending woes last season, where Alex Lyon proved to be their best option between the pipes. While Lyon did a commendable job, his 3.05GAA and 0.904SV% aren’t exactly putting him in the Vezina Trophy conversation. Meanwhile, James Reimer didn’t prove to be better and Ville Husso, once thought to be a future starter in the NHL, has shown to be anything but that since he joined the Red Wings 2 seasons ago. For this reason they brought in Cam Talbot, who was steady for the L.A. Kings last year while starting 54 games. Talbot may not be the long term answer in net, but his veteran presence should help to calm things down a little bit. This feels as though they’re biding their time until top goalie prospect, Sebastian Cossa, is ready to go.
The blueline has changed a little, with the departure of Gostisbehere and Jake Walman and the addition of Erik Gustafsson. My assumption is that Simon Edvinsson, selected 6th overall in the 2021 NHL Entry Draft, will play a much bigger role this year than last. The blueline hasn’t improved, but then again it wasn’t spectacular to begin with due to signing Justin Holl and trading for Jeff Petry.
The future is still bright in terms of the Wings’ forward unit. Lucas Raymond surpassed the 70pt plateau at 22 years old, while Nate Danielson and Marco Kasper are developing well. For this season there is hope being laid on the shoulders of veterans Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko, however. If they can mix well with journeymen Dylan Larkin, Alex Debrincat, Ander Copp and J.T. Copher then they could possibly push for a playoff spot once again. As it stands I simply don’t believe that’s in the cards.
Things haven’t gone as swimmingly for Steve Yzerman in Detroit as they did in Tampa Bay, where he assembled a very competitive team once upon a time. Some big misses on the draft floor, such as Philip Zadina, as well as getting almost no players outside of the first round, grounded the Wings’ rebuild before it even got started. Some good complementary players signed on, perhaps expecting an influx of high end skill that never really developed, which has left Detroit in no-mans land. They aren’t good enough to get into the playoffs, but they aren’t bad enough to obtain high 1st round selections in order to draft elite talent.
#7 Buffalo Sabres
Key Additions: Jason Zucker, Ryan McLeod, James Reimer, Sam Lafferty
Key Subtractions: Jeff Skinner, Casey Mittelstadt
The Sabres, like the Red Wings, Canadiens and Senators, are the victims of being a rebuilding team in a very strong division. Developing goalies while constantly trotting them out against the scoring power at the top of the Atlantic must be tough. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has had that responsibility and has done quite well, if we’re being honest. With a 2.57GAA and 0.910SV% last year over 54 games, he earned himself a 5 year contract with a $4.75M caphit. The pressure will be on to continue that level of play, if not surpass it this season. The Sabres brought in veteran backup, James Reimer, to steady the crease and guide the 25 year old Luukkonen. While their goaltending won’t be described as elite at this point in time, they have a young starter and a veteran backup with defined roles and knowing your expectations is always a good thing.
If there is anything about the Sabres that I would call elite, it’s their defense. Having drafted Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power 1st overall in the 2018 and 2021 NHL Entry Drafts, respectively, they are set up long term on the blueline. They brought in Bowen Byram at the deadline last season, so maybe he should be included in the key additions section, but I didn’t include any deadline acquisitions for the other teams and I’m not going back to edit it now. The point is Dahlin, Power and Byram, along with Mattias Samuelsson and Henri Jokiharju, make up a fantastic blueline that is still very young. Their future is brighter than the present, which is a huge compliment considering how great some of those players already are.
The forward group took a huge step back last year. Tage Thompson went from 94pts one season, to 56pts the next. That’s a massive dive in production, but he wasn’t alone. The leading scorers on the team this season, Alex Tuch and Rasmus Dahlin, tied at 59pts. In the immediate future you should expect to see more of Zach Benson and Jack Quinn, while JJ Peterka could build on his 50pt season. Meanwhile, Dylan Cozens, Ryan McLeod and Peyton Krebs could also take steps forward in their development. There’s a lot of youth on the Sabres’ roster, the only question is if any of them will break out.
I think the Sabres should be happy with where they’re to. Their roster is very young, so Lindy Ruff may have to have some patience when things go wrong. They’ll turn things around eventually, it’s simply going to take time for their players to develop.
#8 Montreal Canadiens
Key Additions: Patrik Laine
Key Subtractions: Jake Allen
The Habs don’t have anything resembling capable goaltending right now. Sam Montembault, the starter on paper, isn’t an NHL starting goaltender, while Cayden Primeau is barely a backup.
The blueline doesn’t leave a lot to be desired either, at the moment anyway. They do have some good young prospects, such as Justin Barron and Lane Hutson, but they’ll need time to develop into capable NHL players. Mike Matheson did very well last season, while veteran David Savard is entering his final year under contract with the team. Arber Xhekaj adds good depth and weight, while bringing a game I wish the Leafs had on their blueline. In short, things could change 2-3 years from now, but at the moment the Habs are weak on the backend.
There is definitely some scoring power up front, with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield leading the charge. Juraj Slafkovsky had a bit of a breakout season last year and hit the 50pt plateau. He has yet to live up to #1 pick at the NHL Entry Draft status, but he continues to develop and is a top 6 forward at the very least. The addition of Laine could be good if he can get back to scoring goals like he once did. Assuming his troubles are behind him, it will be nice to go back to hating him as a player and a person, because he was always a fun personality to hate.
There are still some high picks that have yet to play in the NHL, such as David Reinbacher and Ivan Demidov, so the future isn’t exactly bleak for the Habs, but the present is definitely not looking good. They’ll be at the bottom of the Atlantic and the NHL once again this year.