It is hard to fathom that we have reached this same place again for the 9th year in a row.
Once again the Toronto Maple Leafs left themselves and their fans extremely disappointed with yet another devastating playoff exit.
The same story reigned supreme again as the Leafs withered in a game 7 with everything on the line. It’s really come to the point where it is the safest bet in sports to assume the Leafs will fold and falter in a winner take all scenario.
What happened? Well the same issues reared its ugly head. The team’s best players were invisible when it mattered the most, and not only that, this time around they were thoroughly embarrassed and destroyed by their opponents, the defending champion Florida Panthers.
Game 5 of their 2nd round series was a big enough debacle as is playing one of their worst games in years when they had a chance to go up in the series. In the Leafiest way ever, they managed to top that with a truly humiliating defeat on home ice in yet another game 7 they couldn’t win. They didn’t even just lose here, they didn’t show up and were mostly asleep and lethargic which is probably the most mind boggling thing of it all.
In 9 seasons there have been 3 General Managers, 3 coaches, several other additions to the front office and coaching staff, new players at every position, with this season seeing a total revamp in goal and on defence and yet here we are, dissecting another loss, another failure, another hard to believe, difficult defeat.
While change has been aplenty there has been a steady constant. Brendan Shanahan has been the team’s president for 11 years and he has overseen the Shanaplan and has his fingerprints all over what resulted in the last 9 playoff failures.
The biggest fingerprint is the commitment to 4 forwards and having half their cap space be tied to those 4. It has been a 7 year commitment with the “Core 4” and 9 years in total for their main 3 guys, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander (and Morgan Rielly has been around for 12 years).
9 years ago when those 3 came in, it started with so much promise. Here we stand today with so much resentment, anger, disappointment, sadness and hatred from mostly a fanbase that is at its wits end with this team.
9 years ago there was just so much excitement having the players with those skill sets and talents that has never really been seen here in their entire history. That was unique for a team that has had really good, great players but not the league’s best players who would challenge for individual awards and accolades.
But unlike the other teams with star power, these stars failed to deliver in the most important playoff games time and time again.
Where did things go wrong?
There is blame to share everywhere, but arguably the moment this probably turned for the worst was when Shanahan appointed Kyle Dubas as the team’s GM. After a few years as the assistant, who was in charge of their AHL affiliate and who won the Calder Cup, the organization decided to elevate him to the GM post replacing the experienced Lou Lamoriello.
The move set forth a series of unfortunate events that really turned the franchise’s fortunes to misfortunes.
a) Dubas inherited Babcock who was on his way already to tarnishing his image. As expected there was a clash in ideals which the GM won and this prompted Babcock to be fired and Sheldon Keefe to be hired.
b) William Nylander held out until Christmas in 2018 that basically wrote off his season. It hindered the whole team as they were trying to break in Tavares, who they signed in the summer, but never really were at full strength the entire time to become a cohesive unit. They caved at the very 11th hour and brought in Nylander when really they should have just left him in Sweden. This definitely set the stage for the other contracts for Marner and Matthews. They gave into the dollars and didn’t even get the full 8 year term on any of their contracts. A tough development as the timing of the deals would hinder them later on (more on this below).
c) After another rough playoff exit that was predominantly placed at the feet of Nazem Kadri, who was suspended in 2 consecutive playoffs, the team parted ways with the only guy who was different from everyone else. Kadri was a loose cannon who bled Leafs blue and white, so of course he had to be the one to get traded. It was arguably one of the worst trades ever, as Tyson Barrie was around just 1 season and didn’t work out, while Alex Kerfoot was no more than a depth forward who epitomized the GM’s philosophy of smallish skill (which by the way they doubled down on when they traded Mason Marchment for Denis Malgin). Kadri of course went on to win a Stanley Cup with Colorado.
d) In an attempt to right a wrong financially, Patrick Marleau was dumped to open up cap room for the pending extensions to their top players who were all soon to be coming off their entry contracts. Marleau was traded with a 1st that turned into Seth Jarvis. That was one of many 1sts (all the Leafs original 1sts in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 were traded and they have no 1sts in 2025, 2026 and 2027) that has resulted in a barren prospect cupboard.
e) The team was hindered by the pandemic in many ways. But the 2020 playoff was the 1st sign the group couldn’t get it done when it mattered when they meekly bowed out of the qualifying round vs Columbus in a 3-0 listless defeat as the home team in the bubble. This would be their 4th consecutive 1st round loss and 3rd consecutive final game defeat.
f) if that wasn’t clear evidence, the following season proved it more as the Leafs blew a 3-1 series lead to Montreal and lost that series, once again not showing up in a winner take all game 7 and embarrassingly losing on home ice (even though no fans).
g) yet they came back for more and showed they were once again a strong regular season team, only to yet again lose a winner take all game 7 vs Tampa where the Leafs top stars were nowhere to be found and the Lightning’s Nick Paul starred with 2 goals. A 3rd liner completely outplaying all the Leaf’s top players had become the norm here.
h) while they were able to easily get Matthews under contract, he only signed for 5 years and got a massive pay bump into double digits. While Connor McDavid was giving the Oilers 8 years, the Leafs couldn’t do that for their top guy.
i) then this lead to the holdout for Mitch Marner in training camp. While brief, it still resulted in a max dollars, lesser term contract that the Leafs once again lost. Getting all the money on their terms and having all the protective clauses that benefited them, not the team, the me first, star player first culture was built and culminated in 2 series wins in 9 seasons and by not getting max term, they will likely now lose Marner to unrestricted free agency with no return on investing heavy dollars to this player. Not even playoff success.
j) the signings of these players to such rich contracts, it led to the exodus of key players like Connor Brown and Zach Hyman, as well as a bunch of their acquisitions like Ryan O’Reilly, Nick Foligno and Luke Schenn, who couldn’t stay, as the team simply had to save every last dollar to pay the top guys.
k) The heinous term “own rental” became one of many poor quotes that haunt this team, hindering any true respect around the league despite “respect in the handshake line.” “We can and we will” was all a lie. They certainly didn’t and couldn’t perform when it mattered and they even failed against an Emergency Backup Goalie to add further embarrassment to the team.
l) The poor drafting during this time (and the few years prior) proved quite costly when the cap froze and the team had so much of it committed to 4 players. The lack of quality draft choices and the short-sighted focus on smallish, skilled players was a killer for this team that needed entry level contracts on the roster. In the 5 years Dubas was in charge, there are only 3 of 35 draft picks that will probably help this team, Knies, Holmberg and Hildeby (and the last 2 are just on the fringes at best). Add in the 1sts traded away for rentals who didn’t return and contracts they wanted to get rid of, and we have the lack of depth and turnover that the best teams, championship teams rely on.
l) and lest we forget, not only was all that embarrassing, just the way the players played and acted and disappeared, that just made things worse. These Leafs were mostly perceived as a soft team with no will or backbone. The Geno Malgins and the Kerfoots brought that point home, but their best players put the final nail in by simply being soft and weak themselves. Its a culture the new regime has tried to change, but the problem with that is at its core, it was hard to change those stripes.
So where do we go from here?
Well, this is truly now Brad Treliving’s and Craig Berube’s team, as Shanahan’s contract as Team President was not renewed going forward. It appears we are now going to usher in the Keith Pelley era (he who is the President of the parent company MLSE). It is an interesting set up with Pelley, not a hockey guy, now at the point replacing a former Hall of Fame player. It will be a very interesting dynamic how this works, with Treliving and him, but it seems now Treliving has the keys to do what he can to help get them over the hump.
When Treliving first spoke, during his year end presser, he spoke on a DNA change. So now that the person who was so devoted to the Core 4, Shanahan, is gone, does that mean this will be a core no more?
To answer how Treliving can change the team’s DNA, it would have to be the end. The reality is too, it may simply happen by osmosis as 2 of them, Marner and Tavares, are unrestricted free agents with the ability to sign anywhere else on July 1st. So, change simply may happen because the team wanted it to and so did the players involved.
All signs point to that occurring, as the team really just needs to be different. If we look at it from a Leaf’s perspective, they tried this and it didn’t have as much success as hoped. They tried committing to 4 forwards with offensive skill and that failed to register playoff success.
In the regular season, the team was stout and for the most part was one of the league’s top teams. In the playoffs though, they brought 2 series wins over a 9 year period and that’s just not good enough.
Its hard to understand why they couldn’t advance further. There was enough talent and skill, at times there was depth, at times there were the elements that made other teams successful, but in the end, the sum of its parts was never enough.
A lot of it was most of the sum was made up of 4 players taking more than half of the team’s cap space. When you add in these 4 players not being productive enough as the playoff games got tighter and tougher, it made it all that much harder for the team to overcome other shortcomings.
So, change seems inevitable. Now that was probably said since 2021 when they lost to Montreal, but this time they probably mean it, at least we think so.
But, the other equation is the fact Marner and Tavares can simply leave, thus officially breaking up the Core 4. Now Tavares has pretty much ruled out all other outcomes other than returning to Toronto, but its likely going to be a choice by the team that will determine whether or not the former captain is brought back. He wants to be back.
But for Marner, this is trending a lot differently. It’s hard to know what will occur when we reach July 1, but most of the opinions suggest Marner will leave. This seems like a player who wants a change. Though he is the hometown kid and he lived a dream playing here, the results, the pressure, the strained relations, those seem to be the likely issues that will drive him away.
A free agent for the first time, it seems Marner will likely land a very large pay day from some team. It’s hard to know for how much, where, how long, what type of team, but it seems likeliest that team will not be Toronto.
The Leafs did try however to negotiate and bring the player back, but as is the player’s right, Marner decided not to negotiate.
The pending divorce was likely driven home by the fact the Leafs attempted to trade Marner at the 2025 trade deadline, in an attempt to acquire Mikko Rantanen. With a No Movement Clause, Marner exercised that right to decline any trade and so he stayed.
The Leafs were in a tough position, obviously not wanting to lose the player for nothing, so they made a business move in trying to trade him. There were some rumours that the trade request put added strain on a tough relationship with the team, where there seemed to be a lot of contention between his party and the Leafs. First it was the rookie bonuses that Matthews got, but he didn’t, then it was the holdout, and then finally the trade request.
That being said, Marner did hold out and there were more than enough talk’s of offer sheets that really were “just business” on the player’s side back in 2019. So when you think about it, Marner really shouldn’t be too angry or take offence to “just business”
But if that is what will be what drives him away, the Leafs attitude really should be, so be it. It is honestly really time for a fresh start. Obviously the team is possibly a worse regular season team without him, as he was a big producer and important player to their regular season success.
However, there are other ways to build a team and it really is time to try something new.
The timing is tough though as this probably isn’t the off-season to really start and finish a large overhaul, with it being a thin free agent crop, the cap going up, which opens up competition for players and the Leafs having so few assets to offer in trade to even use that route to make tangible change.
So it probably means the Leafs will just have to make the best of whatever opportunities present themselves and be smart and patient with their approach to rebuilding their team and core group.
Everything may not all happen at once. While it would be great to be able to add someone of impact, someone who could change the team’s DNA immediately, there is credence to being patient. This may require more than just this July to completely fix this team. It may take a few months, perhaps several months to retool and change things. Its difficult to think they can simply change things overnight.
They do have 2 stars still here, plus one budding star in Matthew Knies (whom they need to re-sign) and a defence and goalie set up that should keep them very competitive, at least from a defensive point of view. So there are pieces to still have a really good team, which the Leafs still are.
The team needs depth, especially at forward, and have some cap space to work with. There is no player who would replace Marner, but perhaps a committee of players could be brought in to lengthen the lineup and lessen the reliance on just a handful of players to score.
Yes, the Atlantic division is a behemoth with teams like the Panthers, Lightning and up and comers like Ottawa and Montreal around as well. Boston also lingers. But there is enough pieces for the Leafs to be at least competitive.
It’s not going to be easy, but when is it ever, here? The next few weeks, even the next year, will really be fascinating to see what goes on for this team. There is plenty of anger and resentment and hate still lingering from the stinging playoff defeat, but hate-watching, on and off the ice, is just what Leafs Nation does. Let’s hope, however, the team gives us something to hate them less.
Author – Allan Chow