The last time I wrote I pointed out that nobody is talking about the fact that the Leafs were projected to be over the cap when they started this season. This time around I’ll talk about what solutions may be available to remedy the situation.
We’ll start with the injured players currently on the roster. In particular I find Calle Jarnkrok and Jani Hankanpaa interesting. The last we heard from Jarnkrok was during the pre-season when it was determined that he required surgery to repair a sports hernia. From there he was listed as month-to-month and we haven’t gotten any news since. If I were a betting man his earliest possible return will be Game 1, Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals. If other teams can do this sort of thing then the Leafs can (and should!!) too. If you’re of the opinion that this is circumventing the cap and there should be a change to the rules then you should want the Leafs to do this. If they did, even though Janrnkrok is far less important to team success than somebody like Nikita Kucherov, it would get a lot more negative press and I’m sure the NHL would step in to make sure it couldn’t happen again. Let’s call this the Toronto spotlight effect. In short, I just don’t think Jarnkrok returning is going to be an issue that anybody should worry about.
As for Hakanpaa, I honestly believe the exact same thing at this point in time. This situation reeks of Matt Murray and/or John Klingberg, who were deemed unfit to play by the team’s doctors and ended up having surgery that would keep them out long term. They acquired a player that has previous injuries and, while they should have avoided such a player in the first place, they’re within their rights to keep that player off the roster if their doctor’s sign off on it. My assumption is that Hakanpaa’s knee’s were worse than they realized and once they found out what they were really in for they gave him an opportunity to sort it out, but have now reverted to stashing him on LTIR and going in another direction. The last we heard from him was on Dec. 5th, when it was reported that he had a small procedure done and after a few days he’d be back on the ice preparing for a return. When asked about him last week, prior to their game against the Dallas Stars, Hakanpaa’s former team, head coach Craig Berube said “he is still rehabbing it. That’s all I have for you.”
There is one wrinkle in my Hakanpaa theory and that’s that he was named to Finland’s roster for the Four Nations tournament in February, which is something I’m sure he’d love to be involved in and will push to be healthy for. With the March 7th deadline coming just a few weeks after I have a prediction. Hakanpaa will return to play for the Leafs for a short time before the tournament, but after the tournament is over it will be reported that he re-injured his knee and will be out for the rest of the regular season, minimum. Like Jarnkrok, I believe that he could be an option during the playoffs, but not before.
That’s $3.57M in capspace….. in theory.
From there we have options on the roster, with one in particular that stands out to me like a sore thumb.
Ryan Reaves has likely played the best hockey I’ve seen from him since he joined the Maple Leafs prior to the 2023/24 season. He looks lighter, faster and more effective as a 4th liner than last season. With that said, he’s still slower and less skilled than their other 4th line options. The most ideal mix they have at the moment, in my opinion, may be Steve Lorentz, David Kampf and Connor Dewar. All three are defensively aware, can grind down low and will pot a goal from time to time. All three can also be used on the penalty kill, which increases their value to the team. Reaves, on the other hand, does add the deterrent factor, but considering their most lethal offensive player and captain took a crosscheck to the back on Friday night which will keep him out of the roster for at least a few games, that deterrent factor doesn’t appear to be very effective at the moment. Even after the crosscheck there was no response, no face washing, no chirping, no fight. In fact, there hasn’t been a single fight this season from Reaves. Credited with 7 bouts last season, the only one he was involved in this year was during their very 1st preseason game way back in September. No need to watch it, as it was uneventful and against a smaller opponent. The question for me is why isn’t he fighting? The opportunities have presented themselves, which makes me think that he’s being asked to avoid dropping the gloves. One thing we can be very sure about is that whether it’s him or the team that is preventing him from dropping the gloves it doesn’t matter, his $1.35M can be spent more wisely if he isn’t here to do the job that he was signed on to do.
If they are willing to trade Reaves you now have $4.92M in capspace…… in theory.
Last night we saw David Kampf start the game between Matthew Knies and Mitch Marner, essentially taking the place of Auston Matthews. After the Leafs came out flat and left the 1st period down 3-1 there was some line juggling, but he still ended up playing with William Nylander on his wing. While he did earn an assist on one of Nylander’s goals, it’s a little concerning that he was forced to play in offensive situations in the first place. I should point out that I understand that Berube didn’t want to break up the Robertson-Domi-McMann and/or the Pacioretty-Tavares-Nylander lines, as they have been working lately and that’s why Kampf was pushed to where he was in the first place, but it still exposed the most glaring hole in their lineup. They need another centre if they don’t want to rush Fraser Minten’s development and, for me, I think one that can play in the top 9 forward group. For my money, one that has the ability to play wing would be ideal. David Kampf makes $2.4M and is a PK specialist 4C that’s on pace for zero goals and 16pts over 82 games. For that much against the cap you would hope to see more offense than that. At this point in time and as good of a 4C as Kampf is, you have to consider him a pure salary dump. Making the matter worse is that he possesses a 10 team no-trade list and is owed about $5M total between today and the end of the 2026-27 season. He’s also owed a $1.325M signing bonus on July 1st for each of the next two years, which is something that some teams look to avoid paying. His contract might be harder to move than some would like to admit, but it’s definitely something they should consider if they want to open enough capspace to improve at centre ice.
If they’re willing to move Reaves and Kampf, you now have $7.32M in capspace….. in theory.
In terms of who they can target it’s anybody’s guess. It’s a tricky year to shop for players at the deadline in my opinion. A quick glance at puckpedia.com shows us that most of the pending UFA centres are on contending teams. Considering their site has Brad Marchand and Mikko Rantanen listed as centres also tells me that I may not be getting the most accurate information, but I digress. It’s much more unlikely that a contending team will offload players, which narrows the field of potential rentals immensely. Some players that I’ve mentioned before, such as Mikael Granlund, Brock Nelson and Jake Evans are options, as well as Yanni Gourde and Christian Dvorak.
The lack of rental options could mean that teams are willing to spend a little more to land these players and I’m not sure that I’d like to see a Toronto team that is already lacking draft picks and prospects get into a bidding war. Would targeting players that could use a change of scenery make more sense? I wonder about players such as Barrett Hayton, Jack McBain and, likely the biggest prize, Dylan Cozens. While Cozens is a little risky based on his sizeable contract and lack of offensive output right now, he has the potential to be a hard nosed 2C that would be invaluable in the playoffs. For that reason I also like Jack McBain. He has experience at centre and the wing, draws in on the PK, is a pending RFA and plays a gritty game. His offensive potential isn’t sky high, as he’s more of a 3C than anything, but he still has room to grow and would be a great fit on this roster in my opinion. Hayton is a little different than the other two, as he doesn’t bring the same grit to his game. He has only had a single season above 40pts and has had difficulty staying healthy as well. The former 5th overall selection from the 2018 draft has only shown flashes of the offensive potential that earned him that draft position. He’s signed for this season and next at $2.65M and would represent a pretty sizeable gamble, but the 24 year old, Peterborough native does hold the potential to be a buy-low steal for his hometown team.
One small detail, all of those players shoot left and the Leafs could use a right shooting centre. I wonder if a one-stop shopping visit to Anaheim could be possible, where they leave with Ryan Strome and Jacob Trouba. Strome is also a centre with experience on the wing and Trouba might be a good with next to Morgan Rielly.
I spoke about Rielly last time I wrote one of these as well but I almost feel it necessary to do it again. On Saturday night he was on the ice for a couple of goals that could have been prevented if he was more aware in his own zone. He isn’t defending well at all and his partners are scrambling to cover too much space when he’s on the ice. He’s been on the Leafs for 12 years and the only defender that was ever able to stay with him and thrive for any amount of time was Ron Hainsey. For the majority of his time here the blueline has been very weak, the coaches haven’t implemented a defense first structure and I believe that has always lead people to believe that he wasn’t the problem, but they’re noticing now.
What the Leafs are truly missing from their blueline right now is an all-situations defender. Obviously they don’t grow on trees, but players like Cale Makar, Mikhail Sergachev, Moritz Seider and John Carlson all play heavy minutes on the powerplay and penalty kill and Toronto could use something like that right about now. Two possible options? Rasmus Andersson and Seth Jones. Neither are as elite as the ones I mentioned, but elite players are rarely available anyway. Seth Jones, who I’ve also written about previously, is still very interesting to me. He’s 3rd in the NHL in TOI/GP this season and has been high on that list for most of his career. Only Zach Werenski and Mikhail Sergachev play more minutes per game than he does.
If this was an older version of the NHL video games the Domi-Robertson-McMann line would have great chemistry. A playmaker, sniper and power-forward playing together just makes sense on paper and it has continued to work on the ice.
Matt Murray is about to be yo-yo’d between the NHL and AHL in order to keep his waiver exempt status for as long as possible. It was great to see him back in the NHL and even better to see him earn the win in his return. He played well and I suspect he’ll continue to do so for the most part. If nothing else, he looked like a veteran backup goaltender, which is more than we can say for him the last time he played for the Leafs.
It wasn’t too long ago that the media was talking about how the NHL wanted to protect it’s star players. On Friday night the Leafs best player and one of the NHL’s top players took a blatant crosscheck to the ribs while the ref wasn’t just looking right at them, but was skating towards them, was less than 20 feet away and had an unobstructed view of the incident. There was no penalty called on the play and Auston Matthews will miss at least 2 games because of it, but likely more. I’d love to hear from the ref on this one, because the replay is insanely bad. I’d also like to know why the league didn’t step in to issue a fine.