A complete roster break down is tough to do in short order, but I’ll do what I can, because at this point in the season I am genuinely curious as to what the Leafs may look to add leading up to the trade deadline (which I know is a very long time away, but whatever).
We’ll all agree on one thing and that’s that they won’t be adding a goaltender at the deadline unless things get very tragic. Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll are 4th and 5th in the NHL in SV% as of this writing, respectively, while Stolarz is 5th in GAA and Woll is 3rd. Each are in possession of great records and for the first time in decades I don’t feel like either of the Leafs goalies are a liability.
The defense has come together far better than I predicted and I’m happy that I was wrong. Morgan Rielly leads the group with 4 goals and 15pts, 7 of which have come with the man advantage. He has been relegated to the 2nd PP unit lately, due to the first containing 5 forwards, but I suspect he’ll be back there again at times throughout the season. He’s been paired with Philippe Myers over the past couple of games, but in the long term it’s more likely that he’ll see time with Jani Hakanpaa, if he ever gets his knee in order and starts playing regularly. If Rielly and Hakanpaa can form the type of effective pairing that Rielly did with Luke Schenn, then management may be happy entering the playoffs with them together.
For the first time in a very long time Rielly and his partner haven’t been the go-to pair though, as Craig Berube has leaned on Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev in a shut down role. The pair have played very well together for a few reasons. Both are solid skaters, know how to defend, can play a physical style of game and can get the puck out of their zone with control. Neither are about to be mistaken for Cale Makar, but they make the simple plays regularly and recover well if things don’t go as planned. I see no reason to believe that Berube won’t have them together in the playoffs, where they’ll face top competition nightly.
The 3rd pair at the moment is Connor Timmins and Simon Benoit but I think in the long run you’ll see OEL on this pairing if Hakanpaa is healthy. While I can easily picture a pairing of OEL and Timmins, it could make just as much sense to have OEL on his off side and paired with Benoit. Over the past 3 games and partly because Jake McCabe has been injured, Benoit has played over 21 minutes twice, which is a sign that the coaches are getting more and more comfortable with his game. After a slow start to the season he has improved greatly and has earned that respect, which means that any pairing you want to make from the trio of Benoit, Timmin and Ekman-Larsson is more than okay.
Lastly, they have Philippe Myers sitting in the press box on most nights. He has drawn into the lineup the past 2 games and has played over 18 minutes in both. He hasn’t looked out of place for the most part, which is impressive considering how hard it is to jump into the lineup after sitting for so long and to play against competition that is in mid-season form. He acquitted himself well, which has to make you wonder if there’s even more that we could see from him.
I think the point here is that the Leafs have 6 regular NHL defenders that the coaching staff appear to trust (Rielly, McCabe, Tanev, OEL, Benoit, Timmins), as well as a good depth piece in Myers and Hakanpaa, a veteran who, when healthy, is very capable of playing playoff style hockey due to his immense size. If you were to add anything to this blueline it would have to be more than a depth piece, especially considering the fact that they still have Matt Benning in the minors. If they found a way to add another top 4 defender then they should do it, because winning the Stanley Cup is insanely difficult and a fantastic defensive group is key, but who and for how much has to be asked.
One thing is for certain, the days of (over)paying for depth defenders such as Ilya Lyubushkin, with a little added in for salary retention, needs to be in the past. Those players are readily available in free agency and Brad Treliving just proved that by signing Jani Hakanpaa and Philippe Myers. Lastly, you need to be ruthless to win, so if that means adding a better player and pushing the likes of Hakanpaa, Benoit or Timmins out of the playoff lineup, despite the fact that they have done everything asked of them and have earned the respect of their coaches and fans, then I’m sorry but that has to be done.
Up front there are a couple of players that are key to how the roster will look moving forward. They are Fraser Minten and Calle Jarnkrok.
When you look at the group of centres the Leafs started the year with there was an obvious hole on the 3rd line. With Matthews and Tavares in the top 6 you can’t ask for much more in terms of offensive production. Kampf is a prototypical 4C, but even if they decided to move on from his 2.4M caphit to improve elsewhere, they’d still have Connor Dewar and Steve Lorentz waiting in the wings to play that role, so they’re covered there. On the 3rd line they began the season with Max Domi and/or Pontus Holmberg, who were too weak defensively and offensively, respectively, to do the job properly. Fraser Minten, for the moment, has jumped in and settled into that spot perfectly. With 2 goals and 4pts in 6 games, to go along with 19 hits, 11 shots and a respectable and mature defensive game, as long as Minten doesn’t play his way out of that role it should be his moving forward.
On the right side they’re set in the top 6, as they have been for years, with Mitch Marner and William Nylander. They also have a variety of players that can play on the 4th line, be it Lorentz, Dewar, Reaves, Holmberg, Jarnkrok and even Nikita Grebenkin, who has acquitted himself well in his young NHL career. The real question there, as I stated before, is Calle Jarnkrok. Will he fit into Berube’s system? When will be he healthy? Will he find chemistry with the other bottom 6 forwards or is he a better bet to be traded, opening 2.1M in capspace? If he’s healthy and fits the system, I don’t think you could ask for a better 2-way forward to have alongside a young Fraser Minten (assuming he stays). If he’s healthy and playing, it also created a bit of a log jam along the other side of the ice, which is why he’s a pivotal piece moving forward.
On the left side we can assume that Matthew Knies will stay in a top-6 role. He has done very well alongside fellow Arizona product, Auston Matthews and whoever is on their right side. Before going down to injury (no surprise there), Max Pacioretty was finding a home next to John Tavares as well. The two veterans play a similar style of game, so I’m not surprised they would gel with each other, but with Max Domi, Bobby McMann, Nick Robertson, Connor Dewar, Steve Lorentz and Pontus Holmberg also capable of playing the left side, you have to wonder how things are going to shake out. Of course we can make some assumptions. For starters, if the team had a fully healthy roster, the first player to sit would be Robertson, who has just 2 goals in 22 games and doesn’t provide much else in terms of intangibles. Everybody else has played a role though, with Dewar, Lorentz and Holmberg being capable penalty killers and McMann providing a heavy body on the left side and a net front presence that could easily translate to success in the playoff. Domi, though snake bitten, has shown chemistry with numerous teammates, has good vision and playmaking abilities and is a willing combatant and pest, which are also things that can help during the post season. In short, while the top end skill on the left side isn’t really there, they possess very good depth and that’s even more evident by the fact that I didn’t mention Alex Steeves and Alex Nylander, both of whom have suited up for games this season and turned in good games when you consider the fact that they’re the teams #20 and #21 forwards.
I think if I were to make a suggestion for the forward group, it would be to add one of two things. The first would be another right shot forward, but one that can play at centre and the wing. If there are injuries during the playoffs to one of the teams pivots, then you’ve left yourself in a situation where Domi or Holmberg have to play down the middle and I think that could really hurt them if they make it past the 1st round. One player that was rumoured to be of interest to the Leafs is Montreal’s Jake Evans and while I dismissed the idea originally, he does check some boxes. With 14pts in 24 games he’s having a solid season offensively, he draws in heavily on the PK, he can play all over the lineup, he isn’t afraid to get involved physically and he’s from Toronto, so he might get excited by the idea of playing at home, rather than with his home teams most storied rival (assuming he’s a Leaf fan, anyway). He’d also cost far less than some of the players that fans are raving about and his 1.7M caphit, retained at 50%, would be an easy fit.
With that said, one of the players that some people are pegging as a great fit for the team is pending UFA, Brock Nelson and it’s very tough to disagree with that. He’s a big, two-way forward that can play at centre or the wing and is great at faceoffs. The cost would be high, but again, the Stanley Cup is a difficult thing to win, so improving where you can should be the priority.
I’m not going to dive too deeply on potential fits to the lineup, as some questions are yet to be answered, specifically about Jarnkrok, Minten and Hakanpaa’s health moving forward, so their needs are likely to change. For now the roster isn’t in desperate need of anything and that should be something to be enjoyed, because it feels as if there have been major holes in the lineup for as long as I’ve been alive. Any additions, barring disaster, will likely revolve around plugging holes in the middle of the lineup, whereas in years past it was always “they are desperate for a top 4 defender and/or another top 6 winger.” Those spots should be easier and cheaper to fill, which is also something to be hopeful about.