I have to say, Friday night was a good night. Not just because of what the Leafs managed to do with their pick at #31, which was drafting Ben Danford:
We all have the scouting report on Danford by now: Shot blocking machine, physical player that never quits, a leader in the room and on the ice, great skater, great defensively, has room to grow offensively but is working on it.
The Danford pick was a great way to cap off Friday night, but the conversations and ups and downs of how they got to pick #31 was fun. Nobody knows what the future will hold and maybe we’ll all be lamenting the move to trade down from being able to pick Stian Solberg and grab Danford, but for now I’d like to say thank you for filling the comment section, having a laugh and things seem to have turned out well thanks to Wes Clark.
The second day of the draft was a little suspect at first, but the more I look at it the better I feel about it all. After trading down from #23 to #31, the Leafs picked up pick #58 in round 2. They decided to forego making a selection and instead sent that pick to Florida in exchange for Florida’s 2025 2nd round selection, which we’ll assume will land late in the round, so #60-64, as well as a 7th round selection in 2024, #225 (Nathan Mayes). While we are assuming that pick will land later in the round, there’s always the chance that it could be earlier than #58, which is why the 7th round pick was the only compensation they received.
Over the years the Leafs have continually traded picks at the deadline and haven’t been able to get much in terms of deep playoff runs out of it. Their 2025 draft picks now include a 2nd from Florida and their own 5th, 6th and 7th round selections. In 2026 they have their 1st, 3rd and 5th round picks. They don’t have a full battery of picks until 2027 and that’s simply not good enough. They made a high selection this year so they kicked a 2nd round pick down the road a little and that’s good business, no matter if they trade it for help later or use it themselves.
Another piece of good business was trading for Chris Tanev:
Max Ellis wasn’t about to get a qualifying offer from Toronto, he was simply a contract that had to come off the books, while a 7th in any year is a lottery ticket, so there’s little harm in sending those assets out the door. What this trade accomplished is giving the Leafs an extra couple of days to talk shop with Tanev’s agent about a contract, which sounds like it’s going to be a doozie. This is from Elliotte Friedman’s 32 Thoughts:
“4. My guess on Chris Tanev and Toronto is six years at around $4M per season.”
The assumption here is that he spends the last year or two on LTIR, but if he doesn’t those years will likely see a 3rd pair defender that’s in steep decline taking up too much capspace for what he brings. We’ll wait and see, but for now I’m thrilled to have Tanev in Toronto (assuming a deal actually gets done).
The Rest of the Draft Class
While we already spoke about Ben Danford, the rest of the Leafs’ draft class looks like this:
Here’s what we know about these young men. First, Victor Johansson:
“I think we know what Tre likes. So, try to execute” may be my favourite quote in all of that. Big, physical defenders and smart, two-way forwards appear to be the name of the game at the drafting table right now.
Whats Next?
It appears that continuing to beef up the blueline is where the Leafs are heading.
Zadorov would bring an element to the blueline that is very valuable in the playoffs. He scored 4 goals and 8pts in 13 games for the Canucks this spring, while also playing a very physical game. Reports indicate that he turned down a 5 year, $25M offer from Vancouver already, so he’s about to get overpaid by quite a bit, but he’ll pay for himself when/if the Leafs play the Panthers or Bruins again next spring. Meanwhile, it makes sense that the Leafs are rumoured to be in on Oliver Ekman-Larsson, while also being rumoured to be willing to bring back John Klingberg. A blueline full of defensive defenders is great and all, but they also need powerplay quarterbacks and Rielly can only run one unit. While I’m not a big fan of either player, there’s not a lot of options out there to fill the PP2 QB position. I do wonder if Kevin Shattenkirk could be that guy though. I feel as if he’d be a little cheaper than the other two, while also being a right shot that could slot in on the 3rd pair with Simon Benoit. Just a thought.
Mitch Marner is Returning
With all of the speculation that Mitch would be traded, it now appears that moving him isn’t in the cards. It sounds like the Leafs are preparing to make him an offer to extend soon, while Friedman also had this to say in his 32 Thoughts article, linked above:
5. As a public service, I am providing my official Mitch Marner position (clip-and-save). Thesis: in about a decade, he should retire as the greatest Toronto-born Maple Leaf ever. He’s that good. If it doesn’t happen, everyone involved is going to regret it.
First, he is that good of a player from games 1-82. Second, they had the option to move him last summer before his NMC kicked in and if Dubas didn’t try to gain more control and go above Shanahan’s head, that may have happened. I wouldn’t have trusted Dubas to make that trade though, so there are two sides to that coin as well. Third, with the cap going up and John Tavares set to take a pay cut next season, capspace isn’t the primary motivator here. Instead, it has to be improving the defense and allocating funds more evenly around the lineup. As fans with no control, the only thing we can do is hope that if he does re-sign, he’ll figure out how to be more effective in the playoffs and, in turn, allow us to cheer for him and the team again.
Personal theory: There were reports that the Leafs put it out there that if any team came to them with a trade offer that was interesting they’d take it to Marner’s camp and ask them to consider moving. That didn’t happen. It’s also widely reported that to move him they’d want an impact defender and there are never many of those available. Knowing full well that Mikhail Sergachev was traded yesterday and would have fit the bill, he plays for a divisional rival and the Lightning wanted to open capspace, which is something Marner wouldn’t have provided.
I will say that I liked the return they got for Sergachev and it always would have been my approach to trading Marner. Young, NHL ready assets and lots of capspace is a valuable return. The capspace can be used to sign established players that could replace Marner’s production, while the young players would be used backfill your ranks to add depth. Searching for an established top end defender may have complicated any trade a little too much.