I wish I could say that this would be an upbeat, energetic and optimistic view of what is about to happen to the Leafs in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but it won’t be.
My brain is predicting a Boston Bruins sweep of the Leafs. Four more games, which are scheduled for the 20th, 22nd, 24th and 27th of April and we’ll be without meaningful Leaf hockey for a few more months once again. Four more games and the discussion can pan over to who gets fired for the debacle that this 2024 Leafs season was and who will take their place.
Rumours are floating around that Brendan Shanahan should obtain some moving boxes if things go south in the first round against the Bruins. Common logic would predict Sheldon Keefe will follow him out the door, if he doesn’t lead the way. Both men have been here for some disastrous moments in Leafs history. Losing to a zamboni driver and losing to the Montreal Canadiens in the 1st round, after being up 3-1 in that series, during a year in which the Habs wouldn’t have made the Stanley Cup Playoffs if it wasn’t for the creation of the North Division as a means to host a season during the Covid pandemic, being chief among them.
The real question here is how did they last as long as they have?
Four more games and we can start talking about who will be next in line to sit in the president’s chair at MLSE and who they, along with the (maybe, possibly?) safe-for-now GM, Brad Treliving, deem fit to coach the team next season. Craig Berube would be among my top candidates to lead as Head Coach. With a Stanley Cup ring, a no-nonsense attitude and plenty of experience, he may be just what the doctor ordered for a team that is filled with immature, late 20’s man-children.
Four more games and we can start talking about the entry draft and who the Leafs should take with their 1st round pick (I like Charlie Elick). A 1st round pick that is their only selection in the first 3 rounds. Luckily they have 6 more selections between rounds 4-7, with three coming in the 5th. We’ll have to hope for some late round heroics from the scouting department, but there have been positives there over the past 3 drafts with Dennis Hildeby, Fraser Minten, Easton Cowan and Nikita Grebyonkin all projecting to make the NHL sooner rather than later, while Matthew Knies just completed his first full NHL season. So, while we have to hope for positives at the draft table, there is recent evidence that there is reason to hope, unlike what’s been provided by their counterparts on the ice.
Four more games and we can begin our discussion in earnest about free agency and who the Leafs should target to improve a brutally porous blueline. I like Matt Roy, Brett Pesce, Chris Tanev, Brady Skjei, and Nikita Zadorov chief among them, but there are more that would be good consolation prizes if those players don’t find their way to Toronto.
For now we’ll keep discussing this teams chances in the playoffs, where they’ll face a squad whose blueline is far and away the better of the two teams and whose goaltending is leaps and bounds ahead of the Leafs’. Meanwhile, their forward group is certainly not as good, but to say they’re miles behind would be inaccurate. With the likes of Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak and Jake DeBrusk on the wings, they have nearly as much firepower there as the Buds. Where the Bruins lose a step is down the middle. The Leafs have 2 star centres at the top of their lineup, while the Bruins have Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle as an answer. While they don’t bring the same firepower, they are solid defensively and know how to battle. Edge to the Leafs but kudos to Bruins management for targeting solid contributors there.
Things actually stop going in the Leafs’ favour at that point though. With Pontus Holmberg and David Kampf, who has taken a step back this season, playing down the middle in the Leafs’ bottom six, you have to ask yourself if their depth can hold up to……. well, anybody else’s. With a combined 36pts on the season, the Leafs’ bottom 6 centres aren’t exactly bolstering their depth scoring, while their defensive and physical play isn’t about to make up for that lack of finish around the net. Morgan Geekie, who projects to centre the Bruins’ 3rd line, produced 39pts on his own this year, which should put that into perspective. Unless Holmberg picks up his game in his first ever NHL playoff series, things could get ugly at the bottom of the roster.
Again, it’s my head that is predicting a Bruins sweep. At first glance you would think that the Bruins are a good matchup for the Leafs, who have a clear edge in star power, but on paper the Bruins simply need to get under the skin of the Leafs stars, shut them down and let their superior depth and more well rounded roster take the series. My heart, however, is predicting a 7 game series …… with the Bruins still winning.
How sad is that?