This is a Random Thoughts re-name. I thought the title was used by another site, but for the life of me I can’t find it, so maybe it was a dream. I’ll use it until somebody tells me to stop for copyright reasons.
The Leafs loss to the Sens was a disappointing one. I found their lack of urgency after the Sens took the lead off a flukey goal to be concerning. The last minute, especially, saw them try to enter the zone by way of 50-something casual drop passes. Once again, I find myself criticizing the team due to a lack of awareness of the moment. Urgency has never been their forte, especially against their rivals.
It’s possible that the 1st round could feature a Senators vs. Leafs series and I would hate that. Brady Tkachuk showed a glimpse of how big of an antagonist he can be under the regular season rules. When the whistles go away in the post season he would be more than this team could handle on his own, but he’d also have teammates like Tim Stutzle, who always seems to ramp up his game against the Leafs (among others) with him.
Maybe another 1st round exit could bring real change, but I highly doubt it.
Morgan Rielly will be the subject of discussion on here for the duration of this season and likely far beyond that, it would seem. He didn’t play a bad game against the Senators but he didn’t change the outcome for the better either. What’s more concerning to me is that earlier this week, he hinted at the fact that he’s struggling with Craig Berube’s system so far. When this teams highest paid defender, at 30 years old, is over half way through a season and is still struggling with the new head coach’s system, there needs to be a high level of concern.
Craig Berube has said that he talks to William Nylander almost every day about the players ideas. Maybe they should start including Rielly in those meetings so they can figure out how he can succeed within the confines of a more responsible system of play.
The Mikko Rantanen trade was a big one for the NHL. Rantanen has posted back-to-back 100pt seasons and was on pace for 100pts or more the two seasons prior to those. We’re talking superstar numbers. I agree with all of those saying that his situation is nothing like Mitch Marner’s this year, due to the fact that Marner has a full no-move clause in his contract. The player whose situation was similar was William Nylander’s. Nylander, like Rantanen, held only a partial NTC within his previous contract and the summer before he was set to become a UFA the Leafs shopped him around, if we believe the rumours, which I do. The answer they received, loud and clear, was that the return would be lower than expected because the interested teams saw him as a rental that they wouldn’t be able to afford to re-sign. You’d have a hard time convincing me that Rantanen isn’t similar to that. Switching teams with just over 30 games left in the season could mean that Rantanen tests the market this summer; he owes no loyalty to Carolina. Like Rantanen, you’d also have a hard time convincing me that there wasn’t a single team out there that was willing to ante up to land a solid point producer in Nylander, whether they risked losing him after the season or not. The only glaring difference here is that Nylander is only paid like a superstar, he doesn’t produce like one, whereas Rantanen produces like one and finally wants to be paid as such.
If we’re talking about paying players we then have to talk about Mitch Marner. As of this writing he is 4th in the NHL in points and 6th in P/GP. He’s 2nd in the league in assists and primary assists, as well as being a top 10 forward in TOI/GP and top 20 in TOI/GP while shorthanded. He’s an all situations player that they won’t walk away from without a fight and he’s going to get paid. Elliotte Friedman mentioned on his latest Headlines segment on HNIC that two years from now the salary cap is “probably” going to be over $100M. While he went on to say that he has heard that some teams are going to have an internal cap, rest assured that the Leafs will be one of the clubs that will be happy to spend up to the ceiling and beyond, if they can bend the rules. Currently, the ceiling is $88M, which means that some are expecting it to rise by $6M in each of the next two seasons. If/when the Marner signing is announced, which will likely be after this season is over, that’s something that will have to be taken into account when fans hear the new number, because in my humble opinion we could see Marner surpass Matthews’ $13.25M average.
Nick Robertson has 12pts in 42 games this year, which is below what you’d hope for from a 3rd line player. Half of those points came from a 3 game stretch in December, where he and linemates Bobby McMann and Max Domi showed fantastic chemistry. If that chemistry had remained we wouldn’t be talking about this, but with just 3 goals and 4pts in 16 games since that offensive outburst, he is part of the problem in terms of secondary scoring. Outside of that 3 game stretch you’ll see a player that has 6pts in 39 games, which is poor production even for a 4th liner and it isn’t just him. Domi had 5pts during those 3 games and has just 17pts in 42 games this year. Again, outside of those 3 games he has managed just 12pts in 39 contests. We’re far enough into the season right now to draw the conclusion that they aren’t going to produce within the roster as it’s currently constructed. Change is needed.
Why am I not talking about the 3rd member of that line, Bobby McMann? Two reasons. The first is that when you ask for a trade because you feel that you belong in the NHL and haven’t been given the proper opportunity, you’re putting expectations on your own shoulders. Robertson did that and has done nothing more than show that he isn’t a capable point producer at the NHL level since then. The second is that $1.35M comes with less expectations than $3.75M. When you start making more you need to live up to your contract, that’s simply how life works within a hard cap system. McMann is producing above what you’d expect from somebody that’s making $1.35m, while Domi is producing less than he should at $3.75M. It’s really that simple.
Of all the AHL callups this season I’d like to see Alex Steeves get another look with the big club. He brought some energy in the 4 games he played early in the season and has a whopping 22 goals and 37pts in 30 games with the Marlies right now. With the Leafs recent success in developing undrafted players such as Bobby McMann and Mason Marchment, it would nice to see if Steeves could follow in that same path.
Auston Matthews wasn’t happy with Leafs fans for not giving Ryan Reaves a bigger …. ovation(?)… after his fight with Mathieu Olivier earlier this week. It was Reaves’ first fight of the season and, according to the players, it amped up both benches. The Leafs lost that game and didn’t bring any offense. I’m really not sure what to make of this, but I feel it should be filed under the same disconnected label as Marner (happy with the teams effort in an effortless loss) and Nylander (like, it’s just 3 games, relax) from earlier this season. I’d love to be a fly on the wall when the three of these guys are alone and talking about this fan base. I’d bet that they wouldn’t have anything positive to say behind closed doors.
Back to the fight. I’ll keep banging the drum that this team needs a player that can use his fists and contribute to the game in a meaningful way for as long as I write about this team. Jamie Oleksiak is my most current target, but there have been many over the years.
I read an article on The Leafs Nation that talked about Peyton Krebs and Henri Jokiharju as possible targets for the Leafs and I found it tough to disagree. They’d be good depth pieces to add, in theory. I suggest you give it a look for yourself, it was a good piece.
https://theleafsnation.com/news/why-the-buffalo-sabres-could-ideal-trade-partner-for-leafs
Lastly, Elliotte Friedman has speculated (not heard) that Luke Kunin could be a great fit for the Leafs. He brings energy to the table and was producing well a few years back, but things have tailed off since then. I’m not sure I agree about the fit, as I’d rather somebody with a higher ceiling, but he does bring a gritty, determined game to the ice, so I don’t hate the idea altogether.