Matthew Knies and Rasmus Andersson
I’m going to start with this asinine statement for two reasons. The first is to talk about what Rasmus Andersson is worth, but more importantly it’s to talk about just how good Matthew Knies really is:
The first to report that the Leafs are pursuing Andersson was Jay Rosehill, who stated that “I have a guy within the league that says the Toronto Maple Leafs are actively trying hard to get Rasmus Andersson out of Calgary.”
We can rest assured that the Leafs aren’t the only team that would love to have Andersson on their roster, but they may benefit the most from adding a player like Rasmus.
That’s when Darren Dreger decided to jump in to say that Calgary would ask for Matthews Knies “or you’re asking for something like that.” Let’s be clear about this, the Leafs don’t have another “something like that” on the roster and there are very few “something like that” players around the league. I found looking into this to be very fun, so I’ll share my thoughts on Knies and his place within the league in terms of trade value.
There are 3 players in the NHL that are 23 years of age or younger that are ahead of Knies in the scoring race. They are Connor Bedard, Leo Carlsson and Macklin Celebrini. Bedard and Carlsson went 1st and 2nd overall in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft, while Celebrini went 1st overall in the 2024 NHL Entry Draft. Now, I’m not suggesting that Knies shares the same type of trade value as those players. Celebrini, especially, could turn into a generational talent, while Bedard and Carlsson are franchise players at the very least. They’re the elite young players in the game today.
What I will say is that Knies belongs within the next group of young NHL players in terms of value and, not just that, he may be one of the leaders in the pack. The next youngest player that’s above Knies (17gp, 5G, 22pts = a 100pt pace over 82 games) in the scoring race is Martin Necas (26 years old), who has the benefit of playing alongside the NHLs leading point getter, Nathan MacKinnon. While Knies is also the wingman for an elite centre, it just so happens that the Leafs’ elite centre is playing like an average centre this season. In other words yes, it helps, but no, it’s not Auston Matthews that’s pumping up Matthew Knies’ point totals at the moment.
I’m circling around the main point here. So I’ll try to boil everything down to a single paragraph.
Of ALL the players selected in the 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 NHL Entry Drafts, Knies is 1st in points in the NHL as I’m writing this. He’s also credited with 46 hits and is playing over 20 minutes a night, which includes 1:43 TOI/GP shorthanded and 3:16 TOI/GP on the PP. He’s big. He’s physical. He’s talented and his coach trusts him in all situations. That’s pretty good, right?
Did I mention he’s just 23 years old?
If you want to compare Knies to similarly aged players around the league you’d be talking about Cutter Gauthier, Wyatt Johnston, Tim Stutzle, Mason MacTavish and Matt Boldy, or “something like that.” There’s a reason Carolina asked for Knies in return for Mikko Rantanen last season and there’s also a reason that the Leafs said no to that move. Knies is a keeper. The only way you move him is if he asks to leave and in that scenario you’d try to trade him for, oh, I don’t know, maybe Cutter Gauthier, Wyatt Johnston, Tim Stutzle, Mason MacTavish or Matt Boldy?
Which brings us to the actual value of Rasmus Andersson. If it isn’t Knies, then what would it take to land him and is he even a fit for the Leafs?
My opinion on the latter is that yes, he’d be a fantastic fit in Toronto. Andersson would add mobility to a defense that is sorely lacking the ability to get the puck out of their zone. Between the likes of Philippe Myers, Brandon Carlo and Simon Benoit the team simply can’t get the puck from behind their blueline to their forwards sticks. While he can move the puck effectively he is also sound in his own zone. He leads Calgary’s blueliners with 3:07 TOI/GP shorthanded and is second on the team in blocked shots, with 30. Lastly, he would easily possess the best shot from the blueline on the team, which has also been something that’s been missing for far too long. He’s a two-way defender that is still on the right side of 30 (he just turned 29), so the real question is what’s not to like and what’s the cost to acquire?
We’ll start with the cost, because it’s quick and easy. Considering Andersson is on an expiring contract it’s unlikely that the Leafs would give up any young talent that’s currently on the roster. Strike Knies and Easton Cowan from the list of potential trade options. One prospect that does stand out to me is Ben Danford. A late 1st round selection that’s still developing, Danford fits the bill in terms of a prospect that often gets dealt for immediate help by teams that fancy themselves a contender. He also looked good during preseason, which means he could begin his NHL career as early as next season. That is something the Flames would covet, as ownership there doesn’t have an appetite for a complete tear down. Danford would represent the bulk of value in the deal, but he wouldn’t be enough on his own to get it over the goal line. In my opinion it would cost an addition high pick, but not necessarily a 1st. A 2nd round selection should almost get it there, but if I were to predict the final package it would likely be Danford along with a 2nd and 3rd round pick. In essence that’s a 1st, 2nd and 3rd, where the 1st represents less of a shot in the dark, due to Danford having some development years behind him already and looking like he’ll at least be a 3rd pair defender in the NHL.
So, the other question, what’s not to like?
Well, that’s easy. The Leafs have been hemorrhaging draft picks and prospects for a decade now and they have so little to show for it that Leafs Nation is just about done. Also, it’s anybody’s guess as to where the team is heading in the standings. Their goaltending hasn’t been great, their defense is porous, their forwards are disjointed and lack depth scoring and, as I said above, their best player is currently on IR and isn’t playing like their best player anyway. I’m not sure it ever did feel this way in years past, but it most definitely doesn’t feel like “their year” right now. On the bright side, as bad as they’ve been, they’re still just 3pts out of a wild card spot and 4pts out of joining the top 3 teams in the Atlantic Division, but at the same time they’re just 4pts away from being last in the Eastern Conference and 6pts away from being dead last in the NHL.
Things could genuinely go either way right now.
Imagine if a trade was made today that brought Andersson to Toronto. The question then is how much of a difference would he make? One player alone can’t change a teams fortunes and the long term plan would have to include re-signing the mobile defender. Would Andersson elect to re-sign with a team that’s simply been treading water for years? On top of that it’s now a team that appears to be spending assets to make the playoffs, instead of spending assets to push for a Stanley Cup and that’s a major concern. Lastly, he’d be walking into a dressing room that, from the outside, appears to not really care for one another on or off the ice.
If the deal were made today, would the Leafs find themselves shopping Andersson and any other sellable assets at the deadline? Even if they didn’t sell at the deadline, would Andersson do nothing more than keep them in the playoff race? If he kept them in the race and they still failed to make the post season it would do nothing more than afford the Boston Bruins, who own Toronto’s top 5-protected 1st round pick this year, a selection in the top 15?
The final result could be that you a) miss the playoffs, b) lose Andersson in free agency because he wants to go to a contender, c) watch Boston use your pick in the mid 1st round and d) have to move forward without Danford and even more draft picks.
These are all legitimate questions that Brad Treliving has to ask himself. The Leafs are on the precipice and they look like they’re going to fall off. I just don’t think Andersson, or anybody, is good enough to drag them to the top on their own. That doesn’t mean that I think the answers are in the room. It means if the answers aren’t in the room, then the room needs to be overhauled and I’ll have more on that later.
Just Shoot the Puck
One area where Andersson would help that I left out of the above discussion on purpose is shots on net. The blueliner leads the Flames’ defense in that category and would place 3rd on the entire Leafs roster, behind Auston Matthews and John Tavares. The team hasn’t been producing shots and what’s worse is they’ve been allowing their goalies to see a lot of rubber. Here are the totals for the month of November so far, with their most recent games on top:
Leafs – Opponent
15 – 37 (L.A.)
33 – 32 (Boston)
20 – 47 (Carolina)
33 – 39 (Boston)
19 – 24 (Utah)
20 – 37 (Pittsburgh)
27 – 33 (Philadelphia)
Total = 167 – 249
So far in the month of November the Leafs have been thoroughly outshot to the tune of 82 shots over 7 games, or 11.7 S/GP. Furthermore, they’ve managed to produce 20 shots or less in 4 of their 7 games so far this month. To top it all off, they’ve only managed to hold a single team to 30 shots or less once.
We’re witnessing a team that is 19th in the NHL in S/GP, while they’re also 28th in SA/GP. This is partially the game plan, in my opinion, as there is much more dump-and-chase under Craig Berube, which often turns into dump-and-defend because they lack the ability to regain possession of the puck after they get it deep in the opponents zone. With their dump-ins being scooped up by the opposition it has resulted on them being on their heels much more, which in turn has lead to an increased number of shots against and poor goalie statistics. It’s all connected.
Dennis Hildeby
The team will soon have to make a decision in terms of what they want to do with their young goaltender. With Anthony Stolarz signed for 4 more seasons after this one and Joseph Woll locked in for 2 additional years, the crease may soon be crowded. At a glance you wouldn’t think that this is a major problem. Hildeby hasn’t registered a win at the NHL level yet this year and his 3.81GAA isn’t exactly sparkling, but the young goalie hasn’t looked entirely out of place and is showing signs of being a backup at the NHL level at the very least. The issue is that after this season he’ll lose his waiver exempt status. This means that if they want to send him to the AHL next season they’ll have to hope that 31 other NHL teams allow him to get there. While this is definitely possible, if Hildeby does get another handful of games with the big club and continues to look fairly comfortable, it’s not crazy to think that another team will scoop him up for nothing. He’s also signed for 2 more season’s past this one at a very palatable $842K per year.
It’s simply something to keep an eye on.
The Bottom 6 and $10M That Needs Improving
Another thing I’ll be keeping an eye on is the play of Dakota Joshua ($3.25M), Max Domi ($3.75M) and Nicholas Roy ($3M). Roy is signed through to the end of the 2026/27 season, while Joshua and Domi have another year on their contracts beyond that. The leading scorer among those three as I write this is Max Domi, who has 6pts in 18GP and to say that isn’t good enough is a massive understatement.
Their combined stats are 54 games played, 6 goals, 14pts, a -20 rating and 64 shots on goal (Domi has exactly half of those). The only category in which you could consider them as leaders on the team, I guess, is in the blocked shots department. They are 2nd (Joshua, 14), 3rd (Domi, 12) and 4th (Roy, 11) among Leafs forwards in blocked shots behind Auston Matthews (31). I’m not even sure what that says about their role on the team right now or what they’re being asked to do by their coach, but I do know that for a combined $10M in cap space they should be providing more offense than they are.
One thing that was supposed to change after Mitch Marner skipped town was a boost to the teams depth scoring. Instead of that the teams depth scoring has continued to be stagnant while the stars are left to carry the load offensively.
My “it’s not that simple but is it that simple?” solution? Quit messing around and bring in a 3rd line centre that can produce 50pts a year while also being responsible defensively. We’re seeing now why Roy was used as a 4th line centre in Las Vegas, it’s because that’s what he is. It’s not working, so why not try to fix the problem? What the Leafs really need is a prime Phillip Danault or Jordan Staal type of player and they can find the capspace to pay him $7m or more.
Top 6 Additions
That statement leads to the obvious question of how do you trade for a top end 3C when you have so few assets to work with in the first place? Or how do you trade for much of anything at all?
My first suggestion would be to know when to cut bait on players while they still have a shred of value. Nicolas Roy, for example, is still a useful player and other teams may be convinced that the Leafs simply weren’t a fit for him. He isn’t worth a mountain of assets, but he’s free of trade protection and could be used to land something you need or want. The additional year on his contract works in the Leafs’ favour as well, as it ensures that he isn’t just a rental player. Brandon Carlo also fits this category, but there are more beyond those two as well.
At the end of the day the Leafs backed themselves into a corner due to overspending for so long. This is what lead to their willingness to add reclamation projects over the summer. Matias Maccelli, Dakota Joshua and Nicholas Roy are all players that produced more two seasons ago than they did last year, which made them available at a discount. Brad Treliving couldn’t convince the best players on the market to come to Toronto and he didn’t have the assets to trade for proven talent, so he did the only thing he could, trade for players and hope that they bounce back.
My question now is if he’s done heading down that route?
NO team SHOULD trade for an $8M player that isn’t producing, but Steven Stamkos is available and shouldn’t cost a bundle to acquire (or anything, really). He has a full NMC and would have to approve his destination. You have to wonder if the sniper that almost jumped ship to join the Leafs all those years ago would re-consider coming home to play at this time. Considering the state of the team you have to believe that it would be an easy no, but stranger things have happened. If Nashville is asking for anything of value in return you have to walk away, but the reclamation project of all reclamation projects could be a worthy gamble if the price was right (free).
The only thing I’ll say in favour of this particular option is that Stamkos produced 106, 84 and 81pt seasons before heading to Nashville. That production immediately dropped to 53pts and he currently has just 4 goals and 5pts in 19 games. He changed teams and his production plummeted. Is it the player or the fit?
It’s beyond risky.
I wouldn’t do it.
Treliving may not agree with me.
Leadership
Let’s end it with this topic, because it’s been a problem for a long time.
The teams leadership has been called into question and some are even pining for John Tavares to get the “C” back. I’m not sure why they’d do that considering they didn’t do much with Tavares as captain in the playoffs either, but everybody is entitled to their opinion.
It’s my personal opinion that every player on this team is capable of being part of a Stanley Cup winning group. That includes Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Morgan Rielly and everybody else down the line. However, it’s also my opinion that this group isn’t one that can lead a team to a Stanley Cup win.
From where I’m sitting the Leafs haven’t had a true leader for an extremely long time. Gary Roberts may be the last player in Toronto that I’d consider a true leader of men.
We often have people talk about players that leave Toronto and win elsewhere, but the players that do that are never leaders on their winning teams.
Phil Kessel left Toronto and won a pair of Cups in Pittsburgh and another in Las Vegas. In no way was he “the guy” on those teams. In Pittsburgh he was part of a fantastic 3rd line and the clear team leader was and still is Sidney Crosby. In Vegas he played just 4 playoff games during their Stanley Cup run but even if that wasn’t the case, he still would have been a depth player.
Tyler Bozak won a Cup in St. Louis while playing 3rd line centre under Craig Berube. That team was lead by the likes of Alex Pietrangelo, Ryan O’Reilly and Brayden Schenn.
Nazem Kadri was a fantastic piece of the puzzle when he won a Cup with the Colorado Avalanche. As their 2nd line centre he produced 87pts in 71 regular season games, before adding another 15pts in 16 playoff games. Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, Cale Makar and Mikko Rantanen were the leaders on that roster. Disagree? He was injured during the 3rd round of that run and returned for game 4 of the Finals. That’s a tough thing to do without your leader.
Even before that era of the team we had Tomas Kaberle heading to Boston to win a Cup. That team was lead by Patrice Bergeron and Zdeno Chara.
Luke Schenn has him name on Lord Stanley’s Mug. He was a depth piece as well.
The point is that the Leafs have good and even great players. However, they don’t have that group of players that can drag everybody else into the fight and make no mistake, it does take a group of players. It wasn’t just Crosby that lead the Penguins to hoisting the Cup, he had help along the way. It wasn’t just Bergeron or MacKinnon or O’Reilly either, they too had help. It takes a mindset among the group at the top to pull the rest of the team into greatness and the Leafs just don’t have that.
Matthews doesn’t have that. Nylander doesn’t have that. Rielly doesn’t have that. Even John Tavares doesn’t have that.
Getting that type of individual(s) isn’t easy, either. It’s usually obtained at the draft and the cost is often picks in the 1st round. From there it’s also helped along by the culture and attitude of the organization. That organizational culture is very important, as it helps to provide the identity of the players and team it creates. The big issue (far from the only one) is that MLSE is known to be greedy and are notorious for doing as little as possible for their fans.
With that said, should anybody be surprised that the current rendition of the team is known best for maximizing their profits while putting in as little effort on the ice as possible? The Leafs are simply a product of their environment, their team literally mirrors MLSE.
If you know how to fix this please let me know, because I’m at a loss.