After a pair of losses in Florida it makes writing anything about the Leafs from an unbiased point of view tough, but I’ll do my best.
To start, we’re going to simply knock some names off the discussion list that we know will be here next season. Word is trickling down through the media that the heads at MLSE (those above even Keith Pelley) will not support a full rebuild. Unless one of the star players with a NMC approaches management with a trade request, they will be here next season. For that reason we won’t bother to talk about Auston Matthews, William Nylander or John Tavares. Those three serve as the starting point we need to identify what holes they have to fill between now and next summer. With that in mind, let’s start from the top down.
Matthew Knies
Easy keep. Knies is a home grown product that is a legitimate top 6 winger and considering the Leafs have a pair of top 6 centres in Matthews and Tavares, I see no reason to move on from Knies. The ONLY thing that would change my mind is if another team offered a young superstar player (emphasis on “super”) and Knies was the ask. Remember, Carolina asked for Knies in a deal that would have brought Mikko Rantanen to Toronto. Yes, it’s the same 6’4″ 230lb player that has produced over 100pts on multiple occasions that you’re thinking of, that Rantanen. This goes to show how highly the team thinks of Knies and I can’t disagree. While his production has slowed since the early part of the year (he was on a 90pt pace at one point), he is still on pace for over 70pts and he’s just 23 years old. He’s the perfect player to ride shotgun with Auston Matthews as well, so unless somebody approaches the Leafs with a player that is of higher value on the market than Rantanen, you simply don’t listen.
Bobby McMann
The name on everybody’s lips around Toronto right now, I believe that McMann is an easy sell. Rumours are swirling and sometimes they’re just that, rumours, but the $5M for 5 year contract numbers that we’re hearing are simply too much to pay for McMann. The rumoured ask for the Leafs, a 1st round pick and/or a pair of 2nds seems a fair return to me. I like what McMann brings to the table. He’s big, he’s fast, he’s good on the forecheck and he scores goals, but he’ll also be 30 years old before next season begins, which means a 5 year deal will bring him well past his prime years. The simple truth of the matter is the organization needs draft and trade capital and McMann is likely their most coveted pending UFA.
Max Domi
One of the major issues with the team right now is that they have far too many players trying to play above their capabilities, whereas I am a firm believer in the idea that if you have players that are forced to play further down the lineup than they’re capable of you’ll end up with a championship roster. You need 2nd line players on your 3rd line, 3rd line players on your 4th line, top pair defenders on your 2nd pair, etc, etc. Max Domi is playing on the top line most nights and he’s a 3rd line scoring winger, at best. If you want to criticize him for not being able to keep up on a line with Matthews and Knies then you’re well within your rights to do that. To me that’s adjacent to criticizing a snail for not being able to climb a tree as fast as a monkey though. They’re just two animals that have different capabilities and Domi isn’t capable of playing on a championship teams top line, he’s only there via necessity.
The real question is what do you do with a player that makes $3.75M and is on pace for just 44pts this year while being gifted all star linemates? My answer is two-fold. First, it’s pointless to trade him unless you have somebody else that can step in there. He does have a sliver of chemistry with Matthews, I guess, although that’s been overblown in my opinion. Either way, if he’s dealt, you need to be ready to give Easton Cowan or Matias Maccelli a very long look in his place and neither have proven capable of doing any better at this point in time. Second, his current point production doesn’t make his contract look bad. There are lots of players that make what he makes and produce like he produces around the NHL, so they may be able to get an offer or two. Those offers won’t be high, but it’s worth listening to if they think they can replace him via free agency this summer.
One more point is that they need to decide what their 3rd line is going to be. For parts of this season their 3rd line has consisted of Dakota Joshua and Nicholas Roy, which are arguably two 4th line players, which isn’t ideal. With that in mind they need to give that line an identity and work to put the right players there to make it effective. Are they going to be a hard nosed bunch that play defensive hockey and chip in more offense than we’ve seen this season? If so then Domi doesn’t fit there. However, if they were willing to make a 3rd line that’s expected to provide secondary offense above anything else, then he may have a place on the team.
Nicholas Roy
If they do decide that a 3rd line is one that should provide offense, then, like Domi on a checking line, Roy wouldn’t fit. His 20pts in 56 games is fine production, but it puts him on pace for 29pts over an 82 game schedule, which means he’s not having the offensive bounce back that they had hoped for. He’s likely a 4th line centre on a championship team, but again, the Leafs are far from being a championship team. I do have this dream where the team finds another 2C, which would push Tavares to 3C to form a scoring line with the likes of Domi and Cowan and in that dream Roy isn’t on the roster.
Roy has one more season on his contract after this year, which should help his trade value. I don’t think he’s an irreplaceable piece to the puzzle, so, also like Domi, I’d definitely listen on him at the deadline. The difference here is that he’s a much bigger player, he plays a position that a ton of teams need, the centre market isn’t exactly flush and his caphit is a little lower. I would assume that the offers for Roy would far outweigh the ones you’d get for Domi, which would also make me lean towards moving him. Once again, if you trade him now and you don’t have somebody to step into that spot to start next season it would easily be seen as a mistake, but there are better 3Cs in the world, so I wouldn’t hesitate to move on from this one.
Matias Maccelli
There are so many small, skilled players that aren’t producing top-6 offense on this team. Maccelli gets pushed off the puck very easily, he’s in no-mans land in terms of where he fits on the roster, he’s not a top 6 player but he also doesn’t fit in your bottom 6 and he hasn’t really found any chemistry with any of his linemates. If another team is running a 3rd scoring line they may want him around, but don’t expect anybody to pay much in terms of valuable assets to acquire him.
I believe that Maccelli was a desperation acquisition (and not just him) this past summer. Treliving couldn’t rope in any top end free agents and he didn’t have the assets to trade for legitimate top 6 forwards, so he took what he could get. On paper, acquiring a playmaker that produced 106pts in 146 games over a two year period, before falling out of favour and producing 18pts in 55 games with his previous team was a gamble worth taking, especially considering the position he was in (at least the position I believe he was in). That’s even more true when you consider the fact that they had just lost Marner and needed a playmaker to suit up alongside Auston Matthews. What Treliving didn’t account for was the decision making of Craig Berube, who never game Maccelli much of a chance on that top line. That’s not to say that Berube was wrong, Maccelli is as much a top line player as Domi is, but essentially what they’re left with is two Domi-type players and you could argue that one is too many, while two is simply asinine. At least Domi will fight twice a year and isn’t as easily pushed around. If you have to have one you may as well have the guy that picks up for his teammates, I guess?
I’d move Maccelli for whatever they could get and if he is still on the team after the season is done I’d skip out on the qualifying offer, which would make him a UFA next season. Championship rosters aren’t built around players like Maccelli, it’s that simple to me.
Scott Laughton
I’ve been running through the forwards based on TOI/GP. Laughton plays less minutes per game than Maccelli and that, to me, is criminal. This is part of why I want Craig Berube fired this summer, but I’d like to emphasize that it’s only part of the reason.
Laughton can play further up your lineup, so, while he’s your 2nd most valuable pending UFA after McMann, he’s also far more versatile. I would consider re-signing Laughton based on a number of factors.
First, a different coach may try him on the 2nd and 3rd lines and he may bring some valuable play to those units. Second, it’s obvious that he wants to be here, he grew up a fan of the team and appears to love playing in Toronto. Third, I believe he could re-sign at a reasonable cost and I didn’t hate his game in the playoffs last year, even if he didn’t produce any offense.
At the end of last season I would have had a different opinion. He produced so little after he was acquired that it was shocking. During his time in Philadelphia he regularly produced 40pts a year, give or take, while also playing a physical brand of hockey. While the physicality was still there, the offense dried up to almost nothing. That has continued this year, as he has produced just 8 goals and 11pts in 41 games. However, that’s fair production for a 4th line centre and that’s exactly what Berube has utilized him as all season, so that’s maybe not a knock on him.
If the plan is to move on from Berube, which it should be, then they should keep Laughton. However, if Berube is the coach next season then why not take what you can get for Laughton now? He’ll likely return more than your average 4C via trade, which makes it a good move to cash in while you can.
Easton Cowan
Nobody will offer a fair return for what Cowan can become. You keep this kid, especially when you’re in the situation that this team is in. If he goes anywhere it should be the AHL Toronto Marlies.
Let me rephrase that. Please send him to the Marlies. For his own good.
Nicholas Robertson
Multiple trade requests? Multiple contract holdouts? Followed by less than top 6 production? I like the effort he puts in and his shot, but I also don’t like the attitude that he brings to the organization. Robertson is finally at a point where another team may be willing to offer more than a 7th round pick for him and the Leafs should take it, whatever “it” is. His next contract may start with a “3” and that’s too much for him anyway.
Dakota Joshua
I believe that Joshua was Treliving’s other desperation acquisition from last season. He should have been a salary dump after his prior year in Vancouver, but Treliving paid a mid round pick anyway. At this point, with a contract that pays him $3.25M for two more seasons while he has just 10pts in 37 games, the world knows that he’s a salary dump. If a team wants him you give him away for nothing. However, if nobody comes knocking you simply leave him as a 4th line winger that hits and can score a few goals from time to time. I find it hard to envision another team wanting an overpaid 4th liner, so I think his contract has him locked in as a Leaf for the next two seasons. Hey, maybe he returns to his 18 goals and 32pts in 63 games way of play once again. That’s what earned him that contract in the first place. It’s always possible, right? Yeah, maybe not.
Steven Lorentz
If Joshua is on one wing on the 4th line, then Lorentz is redundant. However, depending on the role you want your 3rd and 4th lines to play he could be the perfect player to have on the opposite wing. We’re at a stage in the discussion where the return for players will be negligible, as is their caphits. I like Lorentz and the leadership he brings. He’s a good 4th liner, can play centre at times and doesn’t mind being used as the teams 13th forward. I see no reason to move him, but if he were traded I wouldn’t complain too much, either.
I guess my only criticism here is that if he is moved it’s because they have Joshua and both players are cut from the same cloth. Also, if they move Lorentz it’s not because Joshua is especially better, it’s because he’s more expensive and they can’t move him. In essence, moving Lorentz because you made a mistake by acquiring Joshua and now have too many 4th line left wingers is a bad reason to move Lorentz.
Calle Jarnkrok
Just move on. He wants out and the team doesn’t value him. If you can’t move him at the deadline he’ll be gone during the summer anyway.
The Forward Roster, As I See It
I’ll try to put this as simply as possible, because opinions about rosters generally involve a lot of factors, but this is my genuine opinion on what the forward roster looks like right now, with the aforementioned theory that winning rosters tend to have players that aren’t playing above their heads. That’s just an unreasonable request anyway.
Knies Matthews ??
?? Tavares Nylander
?? ??? Cowan
That’s it. I just listed the only players that I wouldn’t take offers on at the deadline and/or after the season and some of those are only there because they have no-move clauses, so you can’t trade them even if you wanted to. On top of that sad looking list, I would prefer to see John Tavares as their 3rd line centre, which would be a scoring line. In fact, I’d also push Nylander up to the top line, because why not? I’d attempt to completely rebuild the 2nd line as a scoring line that can be used in a checking role. Think about a line with three players that have no chance of coming here, but would fit the bill, in Brad Marchand, Vincent Trocheck and Alex Tuch. They represent three two-way players that can be matched up against other teams’ top lines, while also providing 2nd line offense. That’s the type of overhaul they need to the forward group for it to be a Cup contender.
Sound impossible? That’s because it is.
There is no mixture of pending free agents that can help you accomplish what is necessary to make this forward group a Cup contending unit. However, there are still forwards that I would have a ton of interest in, such as…
Pending UFAs
Boone Jenner
The Dorchester, Ontario native has been a favourite of mine for years. Jenner is injured far too often, but when he plays he’s one of those guys that you simply don’t see until you do. That’s because he just goes about his business. No flash, no dash, just solid defensive positioning, lots of hits, straight lines and to-the-point play. He’s capable offensively, can play centre or wing and can be used in an array of roles. He’d add the right type of size and leadership to the roster and if I told you the kind of contract I’d offer him if I were in Treliving’s chair you’d be thankful that I’m not in Treliving’s chair.
Mason Marchment
Again, a player that brings size and physicality, but he has also produced 50pts a year regularly over the past few seasons (or been on pace to do so). Kyle Dubas called trading him for Denis Malgin the biggest mistake he made as GM of the Leafs. While I could argue that he made bigger blunders, it’s tough to disagree that the Leafs lost that deal. Marchment and/or Jenner wouldn’t add any speed to the team, but they have the same type of do-whatever-it-takes attitude to help push this group forward.
Alex Tuch
Every team in the NHL will be coveting Tuch this summer. 6’4″ wingers that can produce offense like he can aren’t exactly plentiful. He won’t be a Leaf, I can all but guarantee that, but we’re listing players we like here and there aren’t a ton of true top 6 forwards set to hit the market this summer, so I like the ones that are still unsigned for that reason alone. On a line with Knies and Matthews, Tuch could be fantastic. Also, they’d all bring a lot of size, which could be very hard for opposing teams to handle.
Nick Schmaltz
I have to admit that I’m on the fence about Schmaltz. He’s a playmaking forward that shoots right, which is ideal for Matthews and Knies on paper, but he’s also 30 years old and will cost a loot to sign. If you’re throwing caution to the wind you can offer him a big bag of money, but even then he may decide to go elsewhere or stay in Utah with the same organization that he has played with his entire career. On the plus side, he can play centre as well as the wing, he has been used on the PK, draws in heavily on the PP and has historically been a 60pt player. That’s legitimate top 6 production, so he just may be the exact fit you want.
Evander Kane
If you can’t beat em on the ice, beat em in the alley. Kane is a piece of trash to play against (and with, according to some) and the Leafs don’t have anybody like that on the team. I’d take 3-4 Kane’s over the likes of Maccelli, Robertson and Domi, if I’m being honest.
Conclusion
I honestly wish there were more legitimate top 6 players to talk about here, but there really isn’t. Some players that are on the young side in terms of being UFAs include Eeli Tolvanen, former Leaf Connor Dewar and Ryan Poehling. I guess they could have a ting of potential left and would be worth looking at for various roles. Bottom 6 options are available at the moment as well, such as JG Pageau, A.J. Greer, Noel Acciari, Jason Dickinson and Curtis Douglas, depending on what you want to add. However, it doesn’t appear that the team will be able to solve their lack of top 6 players via free agency this summer.
All I can do is wish Treliving good luck. He needs at least two top 6 forwards and a couple of upgrades on the 3rd line and that’s just his to-do list with the forward group. A new head coach and some major moves on the blueline are also necessary, which means there’s a ton of heavy lifting to do this offseason.
Let’s face it, Brad Treliving doesn’t have what it takes to make all of that happen. The Philadelphia Flyers own the Leafs’ 1st round selection in 2027 (top 10 protected) from the Laughton trade, which makes all of this even worse. My prediction at this moment in time is that the team will miss the playoffs once again, but not before trading their 2028 1st round selection as well, only to enjoy themselves as they watch other teams use their valuable picks to select blue chip prospects over the next couple of years.
Oh joy!! Isn’t it fun to be a Leafs fan!?!?!