From one season to the next, the Leafs’ defensive group has looked like the best group we’ve seen during the Matthews era to more of the same disorderly chaos that can’t keep the puck out of the net. My honest assessment from last year was that the blueline didn’t have any top end talent, which is still the case, but they were among the deepest groups in the entire league. This season? My opinion has changed.
To have walked into the season with Chris Tanev, Jake McCabe, Morgan Rielly, Brandon Carlo, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Simon Benoit as your top 6, while Philippe Myers, Henry Thrun, Dakota Mermis, Marshall Rifai and Matt Benning were all depth options seemed about as ideal as you could hope for. If they had a true #1D to lead the group I would have called it a Stanley Cup contending blueline, but those players are extremely hard to find. Nonetheless, it was worth giving credit to Brad Treliving for building a group that had a mixture of size, mobility, grit and defensive acumen.
Then life and Morgan Rielly happened and now the Leafs are the 5th worst team in goals against, the 6th worst team in GA/GP and are last in the NHL in SA/GP. How the mini-mighty have fallen!!
I’m not about to pick on Morgan Rielly alone, although he hasn’t had a great season, there is plenty of criticism to go around.
Chris Tanev
Chris Tanev’s career was in question after two consecutive concussions in a short period of time, depending on who you listened to. The fact that he is currently skating and could re-join the main group by next week is good news for the team. While I’d most certainly lower my expectations about what he’ll look like when he does return, it’s at least good to know that he will have the opportunity to fully heal this summer and come back next season at 100%.
It’s easy to see the difference that Tanev makes when he’s dressed. He’s an elite shut down defender and while he isn’t a #1, he’d most certainly be a fantastic complement to somebody that is. He blocks a ton of shots, is efficient at zone exits and plays the type of gritty, physical game that you need to be successful in the playoffs. The fact that he has played just 11 games this year hurt the Leafs immensely.
Jake McCabe
McCabe has had a down year when you consider the bar he has set for himself. With Tanev out the brunt of the defensive assignments have landed on McCabe’s shoulders. That, combined with the fact that nobody else on the team can replace what Tanev brought last season to the McCabe/Tanev pairing, has left McCabe struggling. If Tanev can come back and be as effective as he was last season, then you absolutely need to keep McCabe as a potential shut down partner. Together they give the team a pair that can go against just about any top line in the league. Are they perfect? No, but it’s the best we’ve seen in a very long time.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
OEL, now 35 years old, has arguably been the Leafs’ best defenseman this season. He’s been steady defensively, physical, mobile and has 8 goals and 34 points in 54 games, which is already his best offensive season since 2018-19. The question now is how long can it last?
Unlike Tanev and McCabe, OEL doesn’t possess full no-trade and/or no-move clauses, which has seen his name enter the rumour mill. With two season’s left at $3.5M per, the price tag shouldn’t scare teams away, so moving him should really depend on the return. If a team is willing to ante up to add a veteran defender that can play both sides of the ice and has a Stanley Cup ring, then the Leafs should listen. A solid prospect and a pick in the first two rounds would be enough for me to move on, because something has to give somewhere, right? Selling high on a depreciable asset is simply good asset management.
My fear is that asset management isn’t among the concerns for this management group, as they simply want to push for a Stanley Cup every season and likely view OEL as a piece that can help get them there. The issue I have with that is the team is so far away from a championship roster right now that it’s shocking and it appears that everybody can see it except for the people pulling the strings.
Brandon Carlo
The cost to acquire Carlo was high and once this season’s draft day has come and gone it will likely be considered immense. The fact that Fraser Minten has already played to a level that makes him alone an overpayment for Carlo is enough, but to have a 1st round pick that is top 5 protected and will likely land in the 8-15 range in a very deep draft is salt in the wound. With shades of the Phil Kessel trade, in which Boston picked Tyler Seguin 2nd overall with Toronto’s pick, it’s time that Leafs brass learn to never trade with the Bruins ever again.
Carlo was once a high end shut down defender, but he’s been the problem on a lot of nights in Toronto. He was tasked with the impossible feat of covering for Morgan Rielly’s blunders and that alone has caused his stock to plummet. His positioning is poor, opponents are walking around him with ease, he’s not as physical as he should be and it’s time to sell before he’s worth absolutely nothing.
I believe that Brandon Carlo is a good defender, I just don’t believe that he can be one in Toronto under Craig Berube and alongside Morgan Rielly. The only downside to moving him is the knowledge that they will get nothing close to the return that they gave up to acquire him in the first place.
Simon Benoit
Benoit is another defender whose name is in the rumour mill. He had a fantastic playoff performance last season, which gave many the hope that he would take another step and be a difference maker this season. Unfortunately that simply didn’t happen.
I will say that I really like what Benoit brings as a #6-7 defenseman. He’s big, physical, skates well enough for his size and while he isn’t a proficient puck mover, he knows his role and leans into it. My major argument against moving him is that he likely won’t bring much back in return. His value as a depth defender outweighs the potential of hitting on the 4th (probably later, honestly) round selection that the team will get for him. With that said, if a team is willing to pay more than a 4th for his services you should listen. If not, then the 27 year old is young enough to be a viable piece to the puzzle for the next 5-7 years at least, depending on his contract demands.
Some reading this will roll their eyes because Benoit hasn’t been good this season, but the entire group hasn’t been great and I think that has made him look worse than he actually is. The issue here may lie with Craig Berube, but that’s a discussion for after the trade deadline and/or the season.
Troy Stecher
Stecher “saved” the Leafs’ season this year. When he arrived the team was hemorrhaging goals and simply couldn’t move the puck out of their zone. His mobility, effort level and defensive awareness helped turn things around. During one 7 game stretch he played 22 minutes a night or more and the team went 4-1-2, bringing them back into the playoff race. He has continued that strong play, leading to top 4 minutes on most nights.
On the other hand, you could look at it as if Stecher ruined their season. Without him they could very likely be in the bottom 5 in the NHL, which would mean they’d retain their pick from the Carlo trade and have the opportunity to draft a franchise altering talent this spring, but I digress.
Stecher has bounced around the NHL throughout his career, with Toronto being the 7th NHL team he has played for. He is generally viewed as a good depth option, but so far Craig Berube has used him as much more. Because of his history he won’t likely return much in a trade, but also because of his history I question the sustainability of his play. Already he has taken a step back from when he arrived.
This comes down to a simple question; do you keep him and give him a raise over his $788K deal? Or do you sell him for next to nothing? Imagine if you you do re-sign him, what’s the cost? If his agent demands something obscene then you have to walk away, no matter the return. If the player believes that he may have found a home in Toronto and wants to sign for $1M or less on a short term deal, then it doesn’t hurt to keep him around. If he continues to be a capable 20 minute a night guy with that price tag then he’s a steal of a deal. If not? He’s a depth defender that isn’t overpaid.
For me, it’s an easy decision. You’re not gambling with a 2nd or even a 3rd round pick here. The return for Stecher might be a 4th, but is likely even lower than that. I’d gamble a pick in the lower rounds and a small piece of capspace on the chance that Stecher could be a fantastic 6th or 7th defender, just like Benoit. Meanwhile, it’s also worth pointing out that if the team starts moving out other defenders at the deadline, they’ll need somebody to play their minutes.
Morgan Rielly
I saved the most expensive guy for last.
I like Morgan Rielly.
Rielly as a person appears to be a really nice guy, but building a team that can win can’t be based on personality alone and it has simply come to a point where Rielly has passed his expiration date in Toronto.
Rielly has been tasked with heavy minutes during his time here, but since the arrival of Craig Berube something has gone terribly wrong. He’s not as effective offensively and his defensive game has plummeted. Am I blaming it all on the coach? No. Also yes. I am. Kind of.
Rielly has never been a defensive stalwart, but he has looked better under every other coach he has played for in the NHL than he has under Berube. We have to understand that Berube’s system calls for defense first, dump and chase offense, protecting home plate and a number of other hockey quips that are generally considered archaic and outdated. None of those things are Rilley’s strong suit. He’s more of a puck transporter, possession player and join-the-rush type of defender. The issue here is that he has looked so much worse under Berube, but historically, when he isn’t in the lineup, they win so much more. I may have lost track of this stat, but I believe the teams record without Morgan in the lineup since 2020 is now 26-5-1 (I know it’s not “professional” but I lack the patience to research it right now), which shows just how good they can be when he isn’t there to weigh them down in their own zone.
The thing is, it isn’t up to the team whether Rielly is traded or not. He has a full NMC in his contract, which means that he can simply say that he’s staying and that’s that, at least for now. He has two more season’s after this one in which that is the case. During the final two years (2028-29 & 2029-30) that changes to a NMC + a modified NTC, in which he can select 10 teams he can not be traded to. Essentially the NMC keeps him in the NHL, but the M-NTC allows the team to shop him if they desire.
The question will be quite simple. Does Morgan Rielly want to be the whipping boy in Toronto? He has never faced the level of scrutiny that he will if he’s still in blue and white next year. The fans have already begun to turn on him and the more glaring his mistakes are becoming, the worse it will get. If he continues to play like he has it will also tank any value that he may have, which is already low. I’m of the belief that he could return something via trade at the moment, but how much is debatable. By this time next season they may be in a situation where they have to add other assets alongside of him just to convince a team to take him for no return.
The rumours persist, though. The team intends to speak to him this summer, they say. They want him to consider moving on and for some reason the San Jose Sharks are popping up as a possible destination. I think you need to move him as soon as possible and San Jose is as good a city as any to live.
Options
Trade options are impossible to pin point. Names come and go regularly in the rumour mill, so who knows what players may be available between now and the start of next season.
The free agent market isn’t exactly void of options though.
Darren Raddysh
What a break out season it has been for the 29 year old Raddysh. In his 3rd full season in the NHL Raddysh has exploded for 17 goals and 52pts in just 50 games played. He ranks 3rd among NHL defenders in goals scored, 9th in assists and 6th in points. The players above him (Evan Bouchard, Zach Werenski, Lane Hutson, Quinn Hughes, Cale Makar) are considered the elite point producing blueliners in the NHL. Some of the defenders that are behind him in the points race include Rasmus Dahlin, John Carlson, Jacob Chychrun and Josh Morrissey, who are also considered elite defenders in terms of producing offense.
It’s been a strange road to the NHL for Raddysh and 29 years of age is obviously old to have a breakout season, but rest assured that if he makes it to free agency some team will overpay for his services. The question is how safe of a bet is that?
Over the past two seasons Raddysh has produced 70pts in 155 games. Let’s call that a tad less than the elite production he’s been achieving this season.
However, there are signs that he could be a good bet to come close to being a consistent point producer (maybe? kinda?). You have to go all the way back to his time with the Erie Otters, where he produced at less than a PPG for 4 seasons before putting up 81pts in 62 games. Those are impressive numbers and they came at the end of his junior hockey career. From there the undrafted free agent joined the AHL Rockford Icehogs. Towards the end of that first season he earned his first NHL contract, a two year entry level deal. Before that deal expired he was traded to the NYR organization, where he played for the AHL Hartford Wolf Pack. Next he joined the Tampa Bay Lightning organization, where he played the majority of the 2021-22 season with the Syracuse Crunch, before breaking out again in 2022-23. At the end of it all he played 6 AHL seasons during this time and he never produced at a PPG pace until his final season in Syracuse, when he was 26 years old. At that time he once again exploded for 51pts in 50 games played. He then spent two seasons in the NHL full time, which resulted in the aforementioned 70pts in 155 games before once again breaking out in this league.
Essentially what we have seen from his career is a player that takes time to figure it all out and then when he does he immediately gets bumped up to the next level. What we haven’t seen is what he’s capable of, at the level in which he “figured it out,” after he figures it out. Does he plateau? Does he regress? Does he continue to climb?
How much capspace are you willing to gamble on the answer to that question being anything but him regressing?
At 29 years old, how many great years does he have left? Is this season his peak, with everything moving forward being a downhill slope? So many questions yet to be answered.
Here’s what we do know. Raddysh is leading the Lightning’s blueline in TOI/GP (22:33), Powerplay TOI/GP (3:43), Powerplay Points (20), Shots (129) and Even Strength Points (32). He has 50 hits and 49 blocked shots, which isn’t exactly high, but isn’t bad in terms of what a lot of offensive minded defenders produce and he plays a minute a night on the penalty kill, on average. What it all breaks down to is the 6’1″, 200lb Toronto native has been identified by Jon Cooper as a top end offensive defender that has some defensive capabilities. I tend to trust the Lightning head coach, maybe more than any of the coaches that Toronto has had in the past couple of decades, so maybe there’s more there than just a flash in the pan?
I don’t know if Raddysh is worth the massive gamble that he would cost, but I think I may be willing to roll the dice if I were in the GMs chair. Also, with Brad Treliving “this will be somebody else’s problem” management style, I could easily see Raddysh coming home to play hockey at the beginning of next season after being offered a substantial contract from Brad.
Mario Ferraro
A much, much safer bet to succeed under Craig Berube (or anywhere) would be Mario Ferraro. What you’d get in Ferraro is a defender in the same vein as Chris Tanev and Jake McCabe. He isn’t an immobile defender, but he’s most certainly a defensive d-man. He’ll be 28 years old before next season begins, which means signing him to the NHL max, 7 year pact, will bring him to just 35 years of age. That’s a gamble I’d be willing to take, even if the player doesn’t produce much in terms of offense.
With 4.91 Hits/60 Ferraro would rank 3rd on the Leafs behind Simon Benoit and Philippe Myers, while his 5.48 Blocks/60 would be 4th behind Jake McCabe, Brandon Carlo and Simon Benoit (again). Considering Berube’s system I’d be willing to bet that his Blocks/60 would skyrocket in Toronto, while his hits may increase as well. His usage is predictable, with 3:24 TOI/GP short handed and no powerplay time, while he logs just under 21 minutes a night in total.
I’d keep going on about him, but the fact that he compares so well to players like McCabe and Tanev are enough for me to already love the idea of signing the other Toronto native that I’d have interest in this summer. Also, hilariously, there is a world where a Ferraro/Raddysh defense pairing is a very effective one.
Rasmus Andersson
We know the interest is there from the Leafs side. Rumours swirled that Andersson would be willing to waive his trade protection to join the Leafs as well, so in theory there is mutual interest, but that was before he was dealt to Vegas, which was his #1 preferred destination, reportedly.
The Knights have a knack for re-signing players, so it’s quite possible that he stays there if everything goes well for the player and team down the stretch. However, if he does make it to free agency I would fully expect Brad Treliving to take a big swing for the right shot defender.
The fact that Andersson landed in Vegas may be a bit of a blessing as well. His point production has been his calling card for years, but his numbers haven’t been nearly as impressive lately. That could be due to the fact that Calgary hasn’t surrounded him with a lot of talent, but it could also be due to his own regression. Over a 3 year period, before this season, he had 49, 39 and 31pts, in which he played between 78 and 81 games each year. With 30pts in 48 games in Calgary before the trade this season, he appeared to be getting back on track. He has added 4pts in 8 games so far with Vegas as well.
What you have to love about Andersson is the fact that he’s more of an all-situations player than just about anybody else that’s still unsigned. So far in Vegas he’s playing just 37 seconds per game on the powerplay, but is skating for nearly 2 minutes a night on the penalty kill. In Calgary this year he logged exactly 2:37 TOI/GP on both special teams units. It’s nearly impossible to obtain true #1 defenders, so you need to sign and/or trade for as many top line/top 4 players as possible and Andersson is a top 3 defender on every team in the NHL and a #2 on some as well. He’s possibly a lower level #1, which isn’t the insult that it sounds like.
It’s easy to imagine him pairing well with Jake McCabe or Oliver Ekman-Larsson (or Mario Ferraro!!), while he would add a heavy shot to the top PP unit, which is something the team has been missing for years from the blueline. I’d also be very curious to see if having Brad Treliving and Chris Tanev here would influence his decision, not to mention fellow Swede, William Nylander. It will take a fair chunk of change to nab Andersson from the open market, but at this point I believe they’ll be throwing caution to the wind and Andersson is certainly a player that can help the group move towards the ultimate goal.
Conclusion
Aside from the three free agents listed there are a few that would interest me for different reasons. Logan Stanley (6’7″ 230lbs) and Jamie Oleksiak (6’7″ 250lbs) would bring immense size to the lineup, Radko Gudas would bring some bite, Connor Murphy is a simple stay-at-home defender that would fit well on any team and Jacob Trouba had a bit of a bounce back season offensively, while he still brings a lot of physicality to the table. Others, like John Carlson, would be fantastic in theory, but I don’t envision some (Carlson, specifically) moving on from their current clubs. The 36 year old would certainly be a solid addition to the group, however.
The immediate question is who do they trade at the deadline? The answer to that isn’t easy, due to the fact that they want to be competitive next season, while also needing to restock the cupboards a little bit. I feel that Brandon Carlo won’t be back after next season anyway, as he’ll likely price himself out of Toronto, so that’s an easier move to make. In the interim you can have Troy Stecher play his minutes as well.
I also feel that moving Morgan Rielly is the correct move as well, but that’s a summer deal, as he won’t likely waive his NMC during the season. If they can move those two players and sign two of the above mentioned in their place, then the defense looks good to great in my opinion. With a group that could consist of Jake McCabe, Chris Tanev, OEL, Troy Stecher, Simon Benoit and any two of Mario Ferraro, Rasmus Andersson, Darren Raddysh, Jamie Oleksiak and/or Logan Stanley, they could go back to having one of the deeper groups in the NHL on paper. If I were to pick two of those players, specifically, at this moment it would be Ferraro and Andersson, as I feel that both of those players are the safer bets long term. It also helps that I believe both would be willing to join the organization without much convincing.
What say you Leafs Nation? Without including the unpredictable trade additions, would you be happy with a top 7 of Rasmus Andersson, Chris Tanev, Jake McCabe, Mario Ferraro, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Troy Stecher and Simon Benoit? Let me know in the comments and if not, give me your ideal group.