With just two games to go in the regular season, the Leafs have found themselves in 5th to last place in the NHL.
This is not good.
Unless they can stay in 5th to last place in the NHL and the lottery balls drop their way. Which may be good, but may actually not be good, in the long run.
So let’s imagine that’s what happens and they keep their 2026 1st round pick, if only for a moment.
The lottery hasn’t been something Leafs fans have paid much attention to for a decade, but the last time they did the end result was the drafting of Auston Matthews. While we’ll never know who they would have taken had they not won that lottery (Patrick Laine was the clear #2 in that draft), what we do know is if they lost, the results would have been poor if they took anybody that went in the top 5 that year. Laine did go 2nd overall and while his first few years in the league were productive offensively (not so much defensively), his last 3 have been injury plagued and were lacking on the scoresheet. After that the young men that heard their names announced in the top 5 were Pierre Luc-Dubois, Jesse Puljujarvi and Olli Juolevi. Yikes!!
The NHL draft and the rankings that support it aren’t always accurate, is the point. If that year had a re-draft I’m sure Matthew Tkachuk, Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev, Charlie McAvoy, Jacob Chychrun and Tage Thompson would have gone much higher than they did.
That draft was considered average, while this draft is considered one that is very deep, with many speculating that the top 5 could contain all top line and/or pairing players. Gavin McKenna (LW) is still holding on to the #1 rank, with Ivan Stenberg (C/RW) and Keaton Verhoeff (RD) getting votes for #2. Chase Reid (RD) is in the mix, with some proclaiming him the best defender in this class. Tynan Lawrence and Caleb Malhotra (Manny’s son) are vying to be the top drafted centres and are said to have a mountain of potential. In short, it sounds like there’s a ton of talent at the top and while McKenna is all but guaranteed to go in the top 2, after that the Leafs could have the opportunity to nab any of these players (or to go a little off-board) at #5.
But this little scenario of mine actually goes beyond that pick. The thing is, whether they select at #5 or not, it’s very unlikely that they’ll have an 18 year old rookie in the lineup next season. The season after, if they’ve made the right selection, is much more likely, as this would be similar to the career path of former #4 overall pick, Mitch Marner. It’s also worth asking, if the kid they potentially could pick does make the roster, just how much of an impact would he have? It’s not as if you could expect a Matthew Schaefer type of effect on the lineup. For a player that young to have that much of an effect is extremely rare and even then, it’s more likely that a #1 OA selection can do it, not a #5.
The real question is, if they keep that pick, what’s the plan going forward?
We’ve all talked about what it would take to get this roster back to the playoffs in a single offseason. In short, it’s extremely unlikely that it can happen so quickly. Free agency is a poor way to build your roster and with the skyrocketing salary cap ceiling, teams are finding it easier than ever to retain their top players. The team lacks draft capital and valuable trade chips, so adding through that route is a tough ask as well.
Not only is it more difficult than ever to obtain top end talent, but the team needs a lot of it. The blueline is big and slow, the forward group is as well and their scoring depth isn’t great. In general the forward group lacks the ability to play a defensive style of game and the blueline lacks the ability to play an offensive style of game.
Brad Treliving, what have you done!?!?
The kicker? Auston Matthews has 2 season’s left on his contract and whoever the team hires as the new President and/or GM has to make their first priority to ask him if he is in long term, or does he not like the idea of going through a few tough years before being able to compete again?
If Matthews’ answer is that he doesn’t like the idea of sticking around, then the team may put themselves in another pickle very soon.
You see, next year’s 1st round selection has been promised to the Philadelphia Flyers and without Matthews, it could also be one that lands in the top 15. So here’s a breakdown on how all of this could go, if the Leafs do keep their 1st rounder this spring:
- The Leafs 2027 1st round pick belongs to the Philadelphia Flyers, but is top 10 protected. If the pick is in the top 10, they can elect to transfer that selection to the Philadelphia Flyers anyway, completing the Scott Laughton trade, which would push the pick they owe to the Boston Bruins to 2028. The 1st round pick in 2028 would then be unprotected.
- If the Leafs’ 2027 1st round pick is top 10 they can elect to send it to the Boston Bruins, which would satisfy the conditions of the 2026 1st round selection that was traded for Brandon Carlo. If they elect to send the pick to Boston, the Philadelphia Flyers would then obtain the Leafs’ 2028 1st round selection, which again, would be unprotected.
- If the Leafs’ 2027 1st round pick is outside of the top 10, then the pick transfers to the Philadelphia Flyers and their 2028 1st round pick transfers to the Boston Bruins, which again, would be unprotected.
- If the Leafs’ 2027 1st round pick in inside the top 10 and they elect to use that selection, their 2028 1st round pick would transfer to the Philadelphia Flyers, while their 2029 1st round pick would transfer to the Boston Bruins. Once again, folks, these picks would be unprotected.
In essence, if the Leafs keep their 2026 1st round pick, then their 2028 1st round pick heads to another team and will be unprotected. During the season leading up to that draft, the team could be without Auston Matthews, if he does decide to leave. This may qualify as doomsday talk, but that pick could end up being top 5 again, if this imaginary Matthews trade isn’t done properly. For instance, if Matthews does what Marner did and selects just one other club that he is willing to go to, which would tie the Leafs’ hands and limit their return, then he would be doing them a great injustice. What needs to happen, in theory, is they need to deal him for 2-3 NHL pieces, and maybe tack on a blue chip prospect and/or high pick as well, but in order to get that type of return you need to have 4-5 clubs bidding against each other. It’s that simple. If Matthews decides that his time in Toronto is up, he needs to play ball and be open to multiple destinations.
If (big IF) this series of unfortunate events does take place, it would be the Leafs’ best shot at building something quickly, while also keeping high end picks out of the hands of the Bruins and/or Flyers.