Hope’s and dream’s are just about the only thing Leafs fans have left in their arsenal these days. There’s the hope that with the loss of Mitch Marner and some added depth we’ll see a team that is more equipped to take on the vigor’s of the post season. The dream that they can push past the first two rounds and then even further, into the Stanley Cup Finals.
But the reality is that this team, on paper, isn’t better than what it was the last time we saw them play. It’s also true that there haven’t been many changes overall. The goalie’s and blueline are essentially the same and the forward unit, while having some new faces, has a lot of returnees. Essentially, there are four new faces that we should expect to see regularly among the forward group and they are Matias Maccelli, Dakota Joshua, Nicholas Roy and, possibly, Michael Pezzetta. The only new face on the backend is Henry Thrun, but it’s unclear how much of a factor he’ll be at the NHL level, or even if he is ahead of Philippe Myers on the depth chart.
While the changes haven’t been sweeping, they are definitely significant, especially in the case of the player(s) that left. We won’t talk about that in this space, because that’s not what this is about, but instead we’ll take a look at what the Hope’s, Dream’s and Reality of each player on the roster are this season, starting with the goalies.
Anthony Stolarz
The Hope: The hope for me is that Stolarz does exactly what he did out of the gate last season and continues to do it through the playoffs. Early in the year he was among the NHLs best in SV% and GAA. He settled a crease that had been in turmoil since Kyle Dubas took over as GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Dream: The dream is an easy one and that’s that he can stay healthy(!) and eventually steal 4 rounds of playoff hockey.
The Reality: The reality of the situation is that we simply don’t know what to expect from Stolarz at this moment in time. His previous high of 28 NHL games in a single season was surpassed, but he still managed just 34 games. He was out for a stretch due to injury and at no fault of his own he was hurt in the 2nd round of the playoffs as well. Can he stay healthy? Can he continue the play that earned him the starting role in Round 1 this past spring? Can he raise the bar, or will he regress?
Joseph Woll
The Hope: The hope is that Woll can keep improving, even if that is only incrementally. With a new 3 year contract in hand that pays him $3.66M per season, he now has NHL security, which should also help him settle in.
The Dream: The dream for Woll isn’t that much different than the one for Stolarz. Staying healthy has been a big issue throughout his career and while last season was better, he still began the year on the sidelines before going on to play in a career high 42 games. Beyond that, the dream scenario is that he pushes Stolarz for starts and either helps them to the promised land or one of these goalies becomes a very good trade chip.
The Reality: Goalies are a different breed than other positions, which means that at 27 years old it’s not impossible for Woll to keep improving. However, at 27 years old he has also firmly transitioned out of “young player” territory. His numbers thus far are that of a low end starter or solid backup goaltender, but his pay is a smidge above that of a backup goalie. The reality is that it’s time to shit or get off the pot, because if his counterpart continues to play like he did last season, Woll could find himself in another city and it would certainly be nice to get a return on their investment.
Morgan Rielly
The Hope: I truly hope that Rielly figures out how to play Craig Berube’s system.
The Dream: The dream is that he not only figures out how to play within Berube’s system, but somehow manages to thrive within it. The Leafs are in desperate need of a quality powerplay quarterback now that Marner has left town and Rielly should get that opportunity. Can we get back to the Rielly that produced over 70pts a few years back, while he also plays well in his own end? Remember, this is “The Dream” scenario.
The Reality: The reality of the situation is this; Rielly will be 32 years old before this season closes down, he has a full NMC for the next 3 seasons, his contract is becoming one that we should all be concerned about and the player that sits 9th all time in games played as a Maple Leaf stated that he was struggling with the new system at about the halfway point of the season last year. For a veteran player and the longest tenured current Maple Leaf to struggle with a system for so long is a concern in and of itself, but when that player is your highest paid and most important blueliner it’s beyond discouraging.
Chris Tanev
The Hope: Just don’t regress.
The Dream: Just don’t regress.
The Reality: At the end of the day time catches up with all of us. It’s not a matter of “if,” but “when.”
Jake McCabe
The Hope: Just don’t change.
The Dream: Can he maintain his level of defensive play while also adding a little more offense? That’s the dream.
The Reality: At 31 years old, with his history, style and position on the team, the reality is that McCabe is in a situation where the only thing he needs to do is not allow his play to fall off a cliff and everybody will be happy.
Brandon Carlo
The Hope: Like so many before him, the hope is that Carlo can insulate Morgan Rielly to the point where Rielly can look good.
The Dream: The dream is much like the above with one major difference. The dream is that Carlo can insulate and then push Rielly to actually play well, instead of just looking like it.
The Reality: The reality of the situation is that Carlo’s time here will depend too much on what his defensive partner can contribute to the team and that’s simply not fair to him. He’s a solid defender with great size and if the Rielly/Carlo pairing doesn’t work this season, it’s Rielly that they should move on from.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
The Hope: Alongside fellow veteran’s McCabe and Tanev, OEL has helped to settle the blueline into something stable. The hope is that he can simply continue to contribute positively to that.
The Dream: OEL has scored over 20 goals twice in his career. That is unachievable at this point in his career, one would think, but improving on his 4 goals and 29pts would be great. Let’s call the dream a 10+ goal and 40+ point season, while continuing to play well in other areas.
The Reality: OEL is 34 years old, which means that he shares the same reality as Tanev. It’s not a matter of if he’ll regress, but when. With a $3.5M caphit for 3 more seasons, we can only hope that his legs don’t give out any time soon.
Simon Benoit
The Hope: My hope is that Benoit can enjoy the exact same season as he did last season, this season. He was solid in a 3rd pair role and improved in the playoffs, where he was physical, steady and mobile. My hat goes off to him for his ability to cement his place in the lineup.
The Dream: Any form of improvement here would be a dream come true.
The Reality: Benoit is about to turn 27 years old, which means he’s the youngest player among the teams top 6 blueliners. It also means that the margin for improvement is likely small. In other words, Benoit is what he is at this point and there’s nothing wrong with that. The question now is whether he peaked last season or not.
Henry Thrun and Philippe Myers
The Hope: The honour of being the 7th defender on the team appears to be a 2-man race at the moment. I guess the hope is that they can make it interesting.
The Dream: The dream is to have either one of these players force the management and coaching staff into tough decisions. In order to do that they’d have to outplay the likes of OEL and/or Benoit.
The Reality: While Myers is a fine #7/8 defender, he has played more AHL games over the past few seasons than NHL games. He’s in a strange spot where he simply isn’t an everyday NHL player, but he’s almost too good for the AHL. Maybe on a team that isn’t considered a contender he could settle in a little more as a #6, but on a team with the aspirations of the Leafs he could find himself on the waiver wire. At 24 years old, Thrun, on the other hand, may have a little bit of room left to improve and push for a spot in the lineup. They need more mobility on the backend and that’s what Thrun brings to the table.
Matias Maccelli
The Hope: Can the Leafs’ newest playmaker produce above 50pts again? That’s what Brad Treliving is betting on and the fans are hoping for.
The Dream: Why stop there? The four players that are locks to play in the top 6 (Matthews, Knies, Tavares, Nylander) combined for 145 goals last season. Maccelli’s only job is to get them the puck when they’re in prime scoring position. With that type of firepower surrounding a pure playmaker, is 70pts or more attainable? That’s the dream.
The Reality: The reality of the situation is that Maccelli’s ceiling is likely that of a 50-60pt player and while there is nothing wrong with that, he will regularly be compared to Mitch Marner and he simply can’t fill those shoes. If we, as a fanbase, can accept him for who he is instead of asking him to be an all-star caliber set-up man, he’ll be able to enjoy his time as a Leaf.
Max Domi
The Hope: Year 1 Domi vs Year 2 Domi weren’t the same player and I’d like to see the return of the guy that played in Year 1. The lack of centre depth didn’t help last season, as Domi is more effective off the wing, but was forced to play as a pivot. Now that he isn’t expected to play down the middle, maybe he can contribute more positively on the scoresheet.
The Dream: Domi scored 28 goals and 72pts with the Montreal Canadiens during the 2018/19 season and it sure would be nice to get a player that productive to join the top 6 right now. While I believe his chemistry with Matthews is overblown, the dream is that I’m wrong and he can start and stay on the top line all season long, while challenging to match, or beat, those career highs.
The Reality: Domi hasn’t been consistent throughout his career, year over year. We may see a player that continues to produce low 30 point totals, or a guy that goes back to his high 40’s average. What I can tell you is that he’ll make some nice plays here and there, will blow his coverage defensively more than here and there and will drop the gloves a couple of times throughout the season. If you forget about his contract and don’t expect great things, he’s good depth if nothing else.
Nicholas Roy
The Hope: The team has been looking for a viable 3C since Nazem Kadri left the organization and the hope is that they have finally found that within Nicholas Roy. If Roy can simply play well defensively while contributing a little on the scoresheet, it will allow management to address other concerns.
The Dream: There’s really not much to ask of Roy beyond being a solid 3C. Can he be a top end 3C? One that somehow produces 50+ points and shuts down the other teams best? In other words, can he be prime Philip Danault? That would be a dream come true.
The Reality: The reality is that producing around 40pts and being okay defensively is the most we can hope for from Roy, but that’s really all they need from him. He doesn’t need to feel pressured to do any more than what he has already done a few times in his career.
Bobby McMann
The Hope: McMann has a nose for the net, of that there is no doubt, but for me he needs to start bringing a little more to the table. At times he’s a dog on a bone when forechecking, but he can also disappear for games on end. His 136 hits was good for 4th on the team last year, but I’ll be damned if I can recall a single one that the 6’2″ 210lb winger threw. At the end of the day the hope has to be that he solidifies himself as a consistent offensive and physical threat.
The Dream: If he can take one more leap forward McMann would be the perfect fit on a line with John Tavares and William Nylander. Those two have historically done well with a power forward that can retrieve pucks and help work it to the net. If he did separate himself from the pack and locked in that spot, there’s really nothing keeping him from 30 goals and 50pts.
The Reality: At 29 years old it would be foolish to bet on McMann improving any more than he already has. He’s a depth scorer that can bring energy at times and at $1.35M he’s well worth the price tag. The issue there is that his contract expires at the end of the year and considering that he scored 20 goals last year, it might end up being that his next contract isn’t a value deal if he comes close to that again. My suggestion to management would be to enjoy their final year with McMann as a Leaf, unless he’s willing to re-sign with little to no raise involved.
Nicholas Robertson
The Hope: It feels like forever ago, but Robertson began his NHL career via 4 playoff games, where he scored a goal and looked like he could be on the fast track to being an every day NHL player. My hope is that he can regain any semblance of that former potential.
The Dream: There’s an open spot at LW2 for the taking. The dream scenario would see Robertson force his way into that spot (or higher) and post 60pts or more.
The Reality: Robertson is about to turn 24 years old and has struggled with injuries for most of his career. During his first full season as a pro he played just 27 games, after that it was 38 games played and then 17 games. That means he played 82 games over three seasons before managing to stay relatively healthy. That brings us to the 2023/24 season, in which he played 65 regular season games (56 with the big club) and added 6 more in the playoffs. That’s also the summer that he decided to ask for a trade out of town. Yup, the guy that missed 2/3rds of the previous three season’s combined decided that he wasn’t being afforded a good enough opportunity and wanted to cut bait after his first semi-successful professional campaign. The reality is this; Robertson and his me-first attitude are better suited to any team that doesn’t plan to be in contention for the Stanley Cup, because you simply don’t win with those types of players.
Steven Lorentz
The Hope: Please don’t change.
The Dream: If he could bring everything he does now and pot 25pts it would be swell.
The Reality: Lorentz knows who he is on the ice, accepts and embraces his role and can contribute to a Stanley Cup winning team on the 4th line. Let’s just all agree to enjoy him for who he is.
David Kampf
The Hope: I want to joke about hoping to see him on a different team.
The Dream: Unfortunately, it’s not a joke to say that the dream scenario right now is for him to end up on a different team. If that doesn’t happen then it would be great if he could return to being a 25-30pt player that is elite on the PK.
The Reality: The reality of the situation is that Kampf signed a bloated deal shortly after Brad Treliving was brought on board. Considering his signing bonuses, cap hit and play, his deal will be difficult to move. Maybe after his final bonus is paid on July 1st, 2026, they’ll have more hope of doing so, but in the meantime Kampf will likely find himself in and out of the lineup as the 4th line centre, or on waivers for cap purposes.
Calle Jarnkrok
The Hope: The hope is that a healthy offseason can lead to success on the ice.
The Dream: A dream scenario would see him force his way up the lineup, where he could potentially surpass his career best 39pts that he produced two seasons ago.
The Reality: Jarnkrok was signed to play under a different regime with a different vision. It’s very likely that he doesn’t exactly fit what Craig Berube wants from his team. With that said, he lined up as 1/3rd of an effective checking line in the playoffs. He’s an effective two-way player if he can find himself in the right situation. Now, with that said, for the life of me I can’t imagine the situation that would see the team and player wanting to continue their relationship beyond this season. Jarnkrok will want more than the Leafs will be willing to give, especially if he has a decent year.
Scott Laughton
The Hope: Can he do anything more than be a 4th line centre? I certainly hope so.
The Dream: The dream scenario is one where he doesn’t just figure out his game in Toronto, but thrives under Berube. The coach and player would appear to be a match made in heaven. Berube doesn’t demand anything from his player’s that Laughton isn’t 100% capable of supplying. A little offense, some physical play, steady defense… he does it all…
The Reality: … or I should say he DID it all, in Philadelphia. Laughton’s tenure in Toronto thus far has been less than impressive. The Leafs paid a hefty price to secure the right’s to a 3rd line pivot, but he simply didn’t produce in that role. With a meager 2 goals and 4pts in 20 games post deadline, followed by no goals and just 2 assists in 13 playoff games, Laughton’s pro-rated point totals would have landed at around 16pts. From a player that has regularly produced, or been on pace for 35-45pts throughout his career, that’s just sad. The reality of the situation is that Laughton will have to have a monstrous year if he wants to re-sign with the club to anything more than his current $1.5M caphit. Even if he doesn’t, considering his past, another GM will most assuredly bet on him returning to form outside of Toronto, which has me believing that Laughton’s stay here won’t last past this season.
Dakota Joshua
The Hope: I like this addition to the bottom 6 group, but we have to hope that Joshua trends back into 30+ point form, because his caphit all but demands it.
The Dream: Honestly, the dream isn’t that different from the hope. I guess there’s a situation where the power forward can have a 27 goal, 47pt career season, akin to Josh Anderson when he was with the Columbus Blue Jackets.
The Reality: The reality of the situation is that Joshua lost a summer of training, as well as training camp, preseason and the beginning of the 2024/25 season after he was diagnosed with testicular cancer and had successful surgery to remove a tumor. That’s not an easy thing to return from, but he did his best. This year should see him bounce back, as he will have a healthy summer of training. The only question is where does he fit in the lineup and if he’ll develop chemistry with any of his teammates. Lastly, it’s not really his regular season play that I’ll be interested in watching, but his playoff performance. Joshua is a big man that’s very willing to throw his body around to punish the opposition. This team simply hasn’t had players like that in the lineup for far too long.
Michael Pezzetta
The Hope: Energy, physicality and passion have been sorely lacking from the lineup and that’s what Pezzetta brings. The hope is he can bring that whenever he’s in the lineup.
The Dream: The dream is one where he uses his speed to play a solid two-way game, on top of playing with that energy and physicality. He’ll never be more than a 4th line player, so the dream is that he’s a great version of that.
The Reality: The reality of the situation is that the Leafs have a lot of bodies on the roster right now and they have more than enough 4th liners. The thing Pezzetta brings that the rest don’t is his willingness and ability to drop the gloves. With that said, he isn’t a heavy weight that should be expected to take on the likes of Ryan Reaves, Matt Rempe or Mathieu Olivier, even if he is willing to step up to those players if things get heated. The question is simple, where does Pezzetta fit if his play isn’t better than the many options the Leafs already have for the 4th line and he isn’t a threat against the leagues other top enforcers?
John Tavares
The Hope: Steady as she goes. Tavares doesn’t need to be a star, he simply needs to be a 2nd line centre and that’s especially true after he re-signed for a team friendly 4 years, at $4.38M per season.
The Dream: If we’re being honest, the dream doesn’t have much to do with games 1-82, but instead it has a lot to do with the playoffs. Tavares produced 5 goals and 7pts in 13 games this past post season and while those numbers aren’t horrible, they’re simply not good enough in comparison to his regular season statistics. 3 or 4 more points at the right time could have made a difference, especially at the end of Round 2.
The Reality: Tavares is on the verge of turning 35 years old and the former 1st overall selection is still going strong. However, like Tanev and OEL, time will eventually catch up with him. The team has to be on the hunt for their next 2C if they want to continue to compete long term.
Matthew Knies
The Hope: With a brand new 6 year, $7.75M per season contract in hand, we have to hope that Knies doesn’t buckle under the pressure of expectations that come with getting paid. This could very well be a steal of a contract for the team if Knies continues to trend upwards.
The Dream: In recent interviews Knies has stated that he wants the pressure that playing in this city brings. He doesn’t want to be a faceless pro athlete in a city that doesn’t care about hockey. The dream is for him to thrive under that pressure, while becoming a regular 70+ point player.
The Reality: This may be the first overly positive “Reality” so far, because the reality of the situation is that Knies has given an honest effort throughout his career so far, he signed a respectable first deal out of his ELC, he brings a physical element to the top 6 that nobody else does and he still has room to grow, so the expectations aren’t unattainable. Knies is a fan favourite for good reason.
William Nylander
The Hope: Much like Tavares, Nylander simply needs to keep trucking along.
The Dream: While he has always played well with Tavares, he has had chemistry with Matthews as well and most would agree that he’d be a 1st line player on any other team. Now that the RW1 spot is open, it’s very possible that he slots in there and if he does you have to wonder if linemates Matthews and Knies could help him to his first 100pt season in his career. More importantly though, I wonder if he could help Matthews and Knies produce more consistently in the post season?
The Reality: It makes sense on paper and in practice to have Nylander on Tavares’ right flank, where he has consistently produced in the regular and post season’s. The expectation is for him to remain there unless the team needs a boost to their offense in the moment.
Auston Matthews
The Hope: We need to hope that Matthews is healthy this year, which will allow him to get back to his high end scoring ways.
The Dream: The dream for Matthews is the same as the other star players on the Leafs and thats for him to figure it out in the playoffs. The Reality: Superstars around the NHL consistently have good playoff performances, but they mix in some great performances as well. We have never seen Matthews have a great post season and he’s had 9 attempts so far in his career. In fact, I’d venture to say that we’ve never seen him have a great playoff game so far in his career. Again, he’s had good games, but he has never taken over and won it for his team. On five separate occasions he has produced 3pts in a playoff game, but never 4pts or more, I’m not sure why that is concerning to me, but it is. Over 68 playoff games you have to wonder, if he did step up with a monster game or two, would he have played more than 68 playoff games in his career?
I hate to beat a dead horse here, but it feels necessary. Over his past 23 playoff games, Matthews has just 4 goals to his name. Over a regular 82 game season that would pro-rate to 14 goals, which is very concerning for a player that has a career low of 33 goals in a single regular season (he played just 67 games the year he scored 33 goals). That may not be so bad if he was still producing offense in other ways, but with a total of 17pts during that span he simply hasn’t lead this team anywhere. The whipping boy is gone, which is going to turn the heat up for the captain. If there was ever a time to step up big, it’s now. Unfortunately, I simply don’t see that happening.
You’ll be tired of reading about my 2-year doomsday prophecy soon enough, but everything appears to be lining up for it to come to fruition. Now that the “main target” (according to him) has left town, I believe that the onus to succeed in the playoffs will be placed on Matthews almost exclusively. I don’t envision that going very well, which makes me believe that after two more failed attempts, it will be time for the player and team to face the fact that #34’s tenure as a Leaf will have to end. The hope is that he’ll open the door more widely for his exit than his former linemate, which will allow the team the opportunity to recoup major assets via trade. This could also result in a bit of a domino effect, where teammates such as Morgan Rielly, William Nylander, John Tavares, Max Domi, Jake McCabe etc could be moved as well. That is, if they decide to enter a full rebuild. It’s possible that a “re-tool” could be quick and relatively painless as well, but that’s a discussion for another day.