There’s quite a bit to unpack here, so let’s get started on what Elias Lindholm could bring to the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Elias Lindholm
Position: Centre, Right Wing
Shoots: Right
Height: 6’1″
Weight: 195lbs
We’ll start with the obvious problem with offering Elias Lindholm a contract to play for the Leafs. If Mitch Marner isn’t part of another organization, or, more specifically, if Marner’s $10.9M caphit isn’t part of a different organization for next season, then they won’t be able to afford to sign Elias Lindholm. Sure, they have the capspace to do it with Marner on the roster, but they’d be going even further down the “all offense, no defense” road that has lead them nowhere, so I don’t envision it as a real possibility at this exact moment in time. They need to dedicate their capspace to adding at least 2 top-4 defenders.
With that said, if something begins to transpire on the Marner front and it’s obvious to Brad Treliving that Marner will be traded when, or shortly after his $7.25M signing bonus is paid on July 1st, then Lindholm as a Leaf can become a very real possibility, as that would allow them the space to add a couple of solid defenders as well as Lindholm.
We’ll start by talking about his connections to the team. As I’m sure most are aware, Treliving is the GM that brought Lindholm to Calgary and signed him to the 6 year contract that is currently set to expire in a couple of weeks. For all I know Lindholm doesn’t like Treliving, I’m not privy to their personal relationship, but there were successful seasons in Calgary and there seems to be a general respect for Treliving from the players that he had there. On top of that his first cousin, Calle Jarnkrok, is already a member of the Leafs. I wasn’t aware of that relationship until recently and maybe it’s a non-factor, but playing hockey with family might just make Lindholm lean towards signing with the Leafs. Lastly, Elias and William Nylander are said to be good friends, which means that Lindholm could be walking into a dressing room to play for his old GM and share the ice with his good friend as well as his cousin. His ability to adapt to a new team and city could be fast tracked based on all of that combined, which was an issue when he joined the Vancouver Canucks at the 2024 trade deadline.
As for his play on the ice, I’d describe Lindholm as a very good replacement for Marner at a lower cost. Like Marner, he’s an all situations player that generally leans toward playmaker rather than shooter. He scored 42 goals and 82pts over the 2021-22 NHL season, a career high on both fronts, so he obviously has the ability to score goals as well, but his passing and playmaking is a big bonus. Also, like Marner, he’s a very good penalty killer, but his ability to line up at centre as well as the wing, while being an ace on the draw would provide extra flexibility for that unit.
Where he differs from Marner is his ability to produce points in the regular season vs the playoffs. Marner obviously scores a lot more from games 1-82, but once the puck drops on the second season his P/GP rate drops considerably, whereas Lindholm is able to just keep chugging along. Mitch’s regular season P/GP rate is 1.11, versus his 0.88 P/GP in the postseason. Lindholm has a career 0.68 P/GP mark in the regular season and an identical mark in the playoffs. What’s further is that he has done it consistently. That mark isn’t due to one good playoff season pumping up the number on 3 bad ones, instead he simply shows up to play and figures out how to score points against the opposition while stopping pucks from going in against his own team, no matter what time of year it is.
@AFPAnalytics has Lindholm signing a 5 year contract at about $6.7M per season, but I’m going to say that this is a very tough one to predict. He had a down season this year with 44pts in 75 games played, split between Vancouver and Calgary, while adding 10pts in 13 playoff games for the Canucks. Those numbers represent his lowest totals since his final season with the Carolina Hurricanes during the 2017-18 season. If a GM thinks that it was just an off year then he could actually get more per season than that as well as term, but if the offers don’t come and he elects to go shorter term to bet on himself then who knows where it ends up. By the time Christmas rolls around he’ll have turned 30 years old, as is the case with most UFAs, so they have to be sure that he isn’t on a sharp decline. However, if and only if Marner is on the move, I could easily see Elias’ former GM feeling that he knows the player and person, leading to him betting on a comeback and tossing a healthy contract his way.
With Mitch Marner and his spot on the PK and within the top 6 possibly on the way out and John Tavares on the decline leaving an eventual hole at 2C and no centres in the system ready to step up, I feel that I’d be willing to bet large on Lindholm in Toronto as well.