We’ll continue our discussion surrounding potential free agent targets by focusing on another top 4 RD, which is and has been a glaring need for the Toronto Maple Leafs for years now.
Brett Pesce
Position: Defense
Shoots: Right
Height: 6’3″
Weight: 205lbs
Pesce is coming off a 6 year contract with a caphit of $4.025M and it’s a guarantee that he’ll get a raise above that number. While there is a debate over how much of a raise he’ll get, AFP Analytics, who specialize in player valuation, has their estimate at a 5 year contract with a $6.25M AAV. I do wonder if that number would go up or down based on income tax situations, as it does appear to be a motivator in contract negotiations. Would Pesce require a number close to $7M to sign on the dotted line with the Leafs? Or would simple term be a deciding factor? If Brad Treliving is willing to throw caution to wind and give Pesce, who will turn 30 years old in November, a 7 year deal while other teams are offering 5 or 6, then maybe they could land him with a more respectable caphit?
It should also be noted that of the 20 (yes, just 20) pending UFA defenders that averaged 18 minutes per game or more last season, just Matt Roy and Alex Carrier will be under 30 years old by the end of this calendar year. If free agency is their only source of improving the blueline this summer, you run the risk of signing a player that will regress a lot of the next 4-5 years. However, teams will still offer term in two distinct cases. First, the very top of the free agent class will get the benefit of the doubt, which means you should expect to see Brandon Montour sign for at least 7 years, or 8 if he remains in Florida. Second, if a team believes that a player or players are the final pieces to a Stanley Cup contender and they can win it all within the next 2-4 years, then years 5-7 will largely be disregarded.
It would be no surprise to me if the Leafs considered themselves a member of the 2nd group.
Assuming that Pesce could be signed for 5-6 years with a caphit of $6.25-7M, what exactly do you get for your money?
As was the case when we spoke about Matt Roy, Pesce approaches the game with a defense-first mentality. He registered a career high 30pts in 82 games during the 2022-23 NHL season, but regressed to just 3 goals and 13pts in 70 games in 2023-24, which marked a career low in offense.
He also played just over 20 minutes a night this season, which is below normal for him, as he has floated around the 22 minute mark for years. He has generally lead, or been close to the top of the Canes defensive group in TOI/GP while shorthanded, but his time on the PK also took a step back this year. It’s my belief that he was dealing with a lingering injury that restricted his playing time, as his injury updates were more frequent this season, while also being generally nonspecific. If his injury isn’t something that will stay with him for the rest of his career, the Leafs would be getting a top end penalty killer and minute munching stay-at-home defender that would pair perfectly with Morgan Rielly.
Where Pesce differs from players such as Jake McCabe and Matt Roy is in the physicality department. Pesce registered just 25 hits in 70 games last year, while blocking 113 shots. Those numbers aren’t really outliers, as his style is more about using his long reach to pressure defenders and cutting off passing lanes to minimize offensive pressure. For reference in terms of Leafs defenders he would be a closer comparable to TJ Brodie than any defenseman that played for Toronto this past season, but even Brodie had higher blocks and hits per 60 minutes of play.
On the one hand you would like to see a little more aggression in his play, but on the other hand there’s always the theory that players who throw their bodies around a little more tend to regress earlier in their careers due to the toll it takes on their bodies. If you believe in that theory, which I don’t, then you could see this as a sneaky move where you could sign a free agent to 7 years and actually have them play out that contract without the final years dragging down your cap situation. Also, if you believe in that theory you hate the fact that I just compared him to the 34 year old Brodie, who regressed this year to the point where he was a healthy scratch for all but 1 game in the playoffs.
In all sincerity, if the Leafs had a blueline that featured numerous players that approached the game as Jake McCabe, Matt Roy and Joel Edmundson do, then I would be fine with the idea of adding a player like Pesce, but it’s my belief that they could use a little more sandpaper on the backend (especially if Edmundson doesn’t return), which would push Pesce down the list of desirable free agents for me.
While he is a legitimate top 4 defender and the Leafs are desperate for just that, I think if the Leafs find themselves in a bidding war for his services they shouldn’t allow themselves to get carried away.