The Leafs are in desperate need of a top end 3rd line centre. They traded for Scott Laughton at the deadline as a means to fix that problem, but as soon as he hauled on his Toronto jersey his production tanked to the tune of 2 goals and 4pts in 20 regular season games, followed by 2 assists in 13 playoff games. For those counting, that’s a 16pt pace over an 82 game regular season, with a further drop in the playoffs. For a player that has hovered around the 40pt mark the past few seasons in Philadelphia, it was a very disappointing stretch of hockey for Laughton.
To make matters worse (depending on your opinion), as of this writing, it certainly doesn’t sound like there is a contract coming for John Tavares in the coming days. Dave Pagnotta of The 4th Period is reporting that the Leafs offered Tavares a 3 year contract worth under $4M per season. After scoring 38 goals and 74pts in 75 games this year, the general consensus is that it will take much more to retain the rights of the former Leafs captain. For those that may be shocked at the low ball offer tabled by Toronto, you need to look no further than the fact that, since joining the Leafs on a 7 year, $77M contract, Tavares has produced at a 0.96PPG pace during the regular season, but just a 0.61PPG pace in the playoffs. With just 9pts in his past 20 playoff games and now at the age of 34, it’s justifiable to ask how much Tavares can help the team win when it really matters going forward.
All of that is to say that it isn’t just a 3rd line centre they may need to find, but a 2nd line centre as well. With that in mind we’ll run through the very few options that might be available on July 1st.
Sam Bennett
I’m only listing Bennett here because he still hasn’t officially signed with the Florida Panthers, but that’s the expected outcome. I also won’t waste a lot of words on his play because we all know what he brings to the table. Bennett is exactly what the Leafs need right now, due to the fact that he seems to get better, not worse, when the playoffs rolls around. In fact, they could use 3-4 players that play like he does, while losing a few that are currently on the roster. The issue with Bennett is that you’ll never get the same value from him as Florida has. He fits so well in their system and style of play and that makes him incredibly effective there. I’d be afraid that they’d get a different version of Bennett here, but I’d be happy to try nonetheless.
Mikhail Granlund
I’ll admit that I’m a fan of what Granlund brings to the table, even if he isn’t that gritty forward that everybody is pining for right now. He’s an all situations centre that would bring a little more speed to the lineup, which is something the team has been lacking the past couple of years. He’s primarily a set up man, rather than a shooting forward, so he could be a fit to centre players like William Nylander or Bobby McMann. He’s also versatile in the sense that he can play effectively as a winger, which makes him a possible fit on the top line as well. AFP Analytics has his next contract projected at two years for around $5M per season, which is also a great number for a guy that has produced over 60pts in each of the past two seasons. The aim for the Leafs right now can’t be to replace Mitch Marner’s 90pt production with one player, but rather to add depth and replace him with 2-3 players that would combine to make up the $13M he would have cost towards the cap. Picking up a 60pt, penalty killing player that can play any forward position for just $5M would go a long way towards attaining that goal.
Pius Suter
Pius Suter is a lot like Granlund in the sense that he can play in all situations, but he doesn’t bring the same speed as Granlund and isn’t as good on the draw (not that Granlund is a star there, either). Their deployment is also a little different, with Granlund being a player that you can trust more on the powerplay and give second unit penalty kill minutes to, Suter is a guy that you would use more on the penalty kill, while putting him on the second powerplay unit. Suter has been less productive throughout his career as well, with this past season being the first time he surpassed the 20 goal (25) and 40pt (46pts) plateau’s. At just 29 years old Suter is on the younger side in terms of UFAs, so an immediate regression is unlikely, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him settle back into the 35~ points that he has produced regularly. With AFP Analytics projecting a contract at about $5M per season for 4 years, there’s definitely some risk to bringing him in, but with such a thin centre crop this season you have to wonder if they’d be willing to take the risk.
Nick Bjugstad
Bjugstad was deployed much less in Utah this year (12 minutes a night) than he was in Arizona last year (17 minutes a night), which might explain some of the drop in production from 45pts to 19pts. This will make teams wonder if he still has top 9 offense to give. He would represent a low risk addition, as his contract isn’t expected to be overly long or expensive, with AFP Analytics predicting a 2 year deal at about $2.3M per season. Bjugstad uses his size (6’6″ 210lbs) by leaning on the opposition and he isn’t afraid to lay the body. He also uses his reach well defensively, which makes him a viable option on the penalty kill and in match up situations. He’s a player that tends to start more shifts in the defensive end, but he ended the year with a positive shot share, which shows his ability to be part of a unit that can drive the play up ice. Within a Craig Berube system it’s easy to imagine how he could be very effective, as his ability to use his size and reach on the forecheck and to help cycle the puck would fit in very well with how Berube wants his teams to play. Coming from somebody that wants to see the bottom 6 completely overhauled, I think Bjugstad would be a great replacement for somebody like Calle Jarnkrok or Dave Kampf. Right shot centres are difficult to find and ones that are 6’6″ are even more rare. If the Leafs could shuffle some things around and end up with Bjugstad in their bottom 6 they’d be better for it.
This year’s centre group is extremely thin and while there are a few more options out there these are the players that intrigue me the most. I expect them to be overpaid this summer, due to a constant demand for good centremen in the league and there being so few to be had in the free agent market. It’s also why the rumour of the Leafs being heavily involved in the trade market makes sense. It’s likely that, with the drama surrounding the Leafs right now and their consistent failures in the playoffs, none of these players will have the Leafs on their list of desirable destinations. However, if they were to add Granlund and Bjugstad I wouldn’t be disappointed at all. If Bennett makes it to market then signing him should be priority #1, but that’s very unlikely to happen.
As always I want to thank AFPAnalytics.com and PuckPedia.com for the valuable resources they provide. Their numbers make my job so much easier.