When I saw this post…
… it made me think about a variety of questions.
Who are they going to trade for one of the better right shooting defenders on the trade market?
What exactly do they believe it will accomplish? I mean, does Rasmus Andersson push the needle enough to make this team a contender? As we exit the Christmas break the Leafs are second to last in the Eastern Conference, 23rd in the NHL and they just fired an assistant coach. They aren’t exactly a prime destination for a player with options to waive for, to say the least.
When does this happen? At the deadline? With the way the team has played it may be too late to make a deal by then, as they could (should) be in “sell” mode.
Where do they go from there? Defense may not even be their most pressing need if Chris Tanev can stay healthy and Brandon Carlo returns. Do they try to push the rest of their stack into the middle of the proverbial poker table once again? They threw in some big chips last season and lost. There are so few chips left.
Why? Again, just… WHY!! Why are they trying to spend assets to add to a team that is clearly not in contention?
Lastly, how? See “Who.” See also “Where.”
Let me jump right to the point. Over the summer the Leafs traded for a pair of bounce-back candidates in Matias Maccelli and Dakota Joshua and here is how that has gone.
Maccelli finally found his way back into the lineup after being a healthy scratch for 9 straight contests. He has 1G and 2pts in three games since his return and 5G and 11pts in 25 games on the season. He really hasn’t found much in the way of chemistry and has a coach that can’t decide whether he even likes him or not. By this I mean that after sitting for 9 games he was immediately thrown back into the top 6 forward group and has skated for just over 16 minutes in all three games he has played. So, is he a top 6 player or is he a healthy scratch? It feels like mixed messages. Either way, we’ll call this acquisition a swing and a miss.
I think if you asked the coach he would tell you that Dakota Joshua has fared a little better than Maccelli. The big winger has had a rocky season so far as well though. Joshua has also been subject to the healthy scratch “motivation.” After 22 games and just 2G and 5pts, while being mired in an 8 game pointless drought, Joshua watched a single game from the press box, a 2-1 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets, before Berube decided that he had learned his lesson and would be reinserted into the lineup. He answered his benching with 4G and 5pts in 8 games, before hitting his current 4 game pointless drought. He has 6G and 10pts in 34 games on the season. Again, this has been a swing and a miss.
In short, they’ve had little to no success in terms of acquiring bounce back players.
We’ll jump back to the question of how Brad Treliving plans to buy players when he could afford little more than Maccelli and Joshua just a few short months ago. The answer is he can’t afford it and the fact that Rasmus Andersson rumours persist is a product of the Toronto Maple Leafs media machine, rather than him being a realistic option.
With so little success via his bounce back candidates and so few options in front of him, one would have to think that Treliving would change course and either stand pat or sell at the deadline, but you’d be wrong. His job is on the line and that means the future of the Toronto Maple Leafs is of no matter to him whatsoever. Which brings us to the happy little realization that change isn’t close and rock bottom isn’t in sight.
Oh, my poor, sweet, innocent Leaf fan, did you actually believe that selling any or all of the core in an attempt to change the dressing room, leadership group and fate of the team was an option? That’s simply not in the cards. This core, the one that lost to a zamboni driver, the one that lost to a Columbus team that wouldn’t have made the playoffs in a 5 game play-in round, the one that dropped a 3-1 series lead to the Montreal Canadiens, the one that dropped a 3-1 series lead to the Boston Bruins, the one that dropped a 2-1 series lead to the Florida Panthers, the one that LOST A GAME TO A ZAMBONI DRIVER!!! … sorry, I just can’t let that go… yes, that core will be here until they walk for nothing and the team will have no 1st round selections for years after due to hiring the wrong GM. We’ll watch as multiple high end prospects are taken with the picks that were spent to prop up a core group of players that were never going to lead the team to a championship in the first place.
With THAT in mind, lets assume that Brad “Brutal Trades” Treliving will happily take on more bounce back candidates in an attempt to save his job and because he has the equivalent of $1.32 to spend in a market that consistently values anything decent at over $100.
Sigh.
Here are your options:
Steven Stamkos
Things haven’t worked out for Stamkos in Nashville. His final season with the Tampa Bay Lightning saw him score 40G and 81pts, but that total immediately dropped to 27G and 53pts the next season. At the moment he has 15G and 22pts in 36GP and has been very hot of late. He has 11G and 17pts over his past 14 games, which means teams may see him as less of a bounce back candidate and more of a veteran player that has found his groove again. The biggest deterrent here is his $8M caphit that lasts for 2 more seasons after this one and Nashville’s unwillingness to retain salary. There may only be a few teams that are willing to commit that type of capspace to a player that hasn’t been himself since he left Tampa and Treliving would be one. The question is two-fold. Would Stamkos consider the Leafs in the state they’re in? If so, how do the Leafs break open enough capspace to make that happen? Thanks to the good folks at puckpedia.com we can answer that latter question. If/when the Leafs return Henry Thrun, Dakota Mermis and Dennis Hildeby (assuming Anthony Stolarz ever gets healthy again) to the AHL Toronto Marlies, they’ll be ready to kick things into gear. At that stage a simple swap of Stamkos for Maccelli + Carlo would give the Leafs just under $1M in capspace. Would the Predators do that deal? Probably not. I have to assume that the Leafs would have to kick in some type of sweetener, but luckily Brad “My Head is Firmly Up My Ass” Treliving has a few 2nd round selections he doesn’t intend to use on draft day in 2027, 2028 and 2029, so we’ll assume that he can make it work somehow. The last question is if Stamkos would waive his full NMC to join the Toronto Maple Leaf and the answer is no. This is a tire fire. Why would he?
Are we having fun yet??
Evander Kane
Nobody is calling for Kane and it’s not expected that they will any time soon. Kane is known to be a player that creates trouble in the dressing room, takes bad penalties and is an overall negative presence around a team.
On the bright side this team could really use a shake up in the dressing room, they have a pretty good penalty kill and there’s nothing but a negative presence around the team anyway, so whats the harm in adding a little more?
On the positive side Kane is a player that is willing to pick up for his teammates on the ice. He hasn’t fought a ton as of late but that has been a part of his game historically. He’s a big power forward that may fit nicely next to John Tavares and William Nylander. His brand of physicality and swagger would change the team on and off the ice and lets face it, they need some major change on and off the ice. The Vancouver Canucks may be willing to retain some salary on this one and they only paid a 4th round pick for him over the summer, which makes this a move that you could consider on top of adding Stamkos. Oh joy!! Brad “Are You Proud Of Me Yet, Dad?” Treliving could offer Calle Jarnkrok and a 3rd round selection for Kane at 50% and that would absolutely be enough for the Nucks.
Jonathan Marchessault
Well, look at you go Nashville!! Bounce back candidates galore!!
Marchessault is signed for 3 more seasons after this one and has a $5.5M caphit attached to him. With 7G and 10pts in 28GP, his production has fallen off a cliff this year. While he was never among the elite point producers in the NHL, this is a player that has been good for 50pts or more for about a decade. If he could return to that production he’d be a steal for whichever team acquires him. If he doesn’t, he’ll be an anchor. This sounds like it’s right up Brad “Douche Knuckle” Treliving’s ally.
On the positive side, Marchessault would bring a level of compete that is simply not present on the current roster. He has an engine that doesn’t quit and the Leafs desperately need players like that. It does sound like there are some interested teams and that may have a lot to do with the fact that he always seems to elevate his game come playoff time. It’s a gamble and the odds are stacked against them, but that is where Brad “Fuck it, it ain’t my money” Treliving appears to have the most (least?) success.
Ryan Strome
A steady veteran that shoots right, Strome has produced exactly 41pts for three straight seasons. He isn’t a dynamic point producer, but he’s nothing if not consistent year-over-year. Strome has just 2G and 6pts in 19GP so far this season and has the ability to play centre or the wing. He’s more of a playmaker than a goal scorer, which could make him another option on the top line with Auston Matthews. The Mississauga native comes with a $5M caphit that runs through next season and lacks any kind of trade protection.
If I’m being completely honest, this is one option that I would absolutely consider. Strome was injured earlier this season and upon his return his spot in the top 6 was taken by the younger Beckett Sennecke. The Ducks have stayed with the younger, higher upside option, as they should at this stage of their rebuild, but that meant Strome’s minutes and quality of teammates have taken a hit. If put back into a good situation, he may actually bounce back.
The fact that I think it’s a good idea is likely enough to keep Brad “Papa Keeps Telling Me To Trade With Boston For Some Reason” Treliving away from acquiring the cheap, versatile option.
Andrei Kuzmenko
Is this a “bounce back” or “never was?” I’m not even sure, but what the hey, lets just run with it. Kuzmenko played just 22 regular season games in LA last season and scored 5G and 17pts, before suiting up for 6 playoff games where he scored 3G and 6pts. He appears to play well for a new team and then the next season… not so much. That isn’t an issue for the Leafs though, because Kuzmenko is a pending UFA, so he can ride out of town at the end of the season after helping the Leafs climb back into the playoffs. As it stands he has 7G and 11pts in 31GP with the Kings and he doesn’t possess any trade protection. It’s a hilariously good option for Brad “Extra Cheese On Mine” Treliving when you look at how he produces as soon as he moves house.
Trevor Moore
BRING HIM HOME BRADLEY!!
It sounds as if the good times have ended for Moore in LA. With 2 more seasons remaining and a $4.2M caphit to boot, Moore and his 4G and 12pts in 35 games could be locked into the Kings whether they like it or not. At least until he produces… Moore. Brad “If I Ever Look Up I’ll See How Far In Over My Head I Am” Treliving may bail them out of this one in hopes that Moore can rekindle his past success in the city where he began his NHL career. His first stint with the Buds saw him produce 5G and 13pts in 52GP over two seasons before being sent to LA, along with a pair of 3rd round selections, for Jack Campbell and Kyle Clifford. Good times, good times.
Conclusion
Let’s separate the “want” from the “expects” when it comes to this writers point of view. What I want is big change to the core of the team, which is so very long overdue. What I expect is for the team to double down and make things worse. If they’re going to continue on the path they’ve created, while also considering their lack of tradable assets, obtaining some players that could use a change of scenery may be their only option. If that’s the case and these options are available, I believe that Evander Kane and Ryan Strome would represent the best of these terrible scenarios, due to their usefulness to the current roster and cost to acquire (crazy low!!).
While the cap ceiling appears to be close, they actually have quite a bit of wiggle room due to having players that can and have passed through waivers already. In order to make deals work they also have some options in terms of players that they can move out. For example, Matias Maccelli and his $3.425M caphit should now be considered a salary dump in any trade discussions. He has produced 29pts in his past 80 games and he has spent enough time with top players to have fared better, but hasn’t. If they were to trade for Ryan Strome I see no reason why the Ducks wouldn’t accept Maccelli in the deal, only to not qualify him at the end of the season, allowing him to walk as a UFA on July 1st. Strome has a $5M salary due to him next season, which means they’d save capspace and actually money in the trade. Maccelli is outproducing Strome at the moment, although both players’ point totals are inconsequential, but it may be just enough to allow the Leafs to ask for a pick to be sent THEIR way.
With this reasoning it would also make sense for any of these teams to take Calle Jarnkrok in a trade, which would offset the amount the Leafs are obtaining by $2.1M. I won’t speak on Max Domi and Dakota Joshua, because they have term, partial trade protection and are producing at far too low a rate right now. Finding a trade partner for them may be difficult, to say the least.