Everybody expected this, so it’s not a big surprise. The only people that could get a surprise are the players, as Berube and accountability have historically gone hand in hand. The last thing Sheldon Keefe did was hold star players accountable for their play, so it will be interesting to see what kind of a shock to the system this creates for the country club elites on the roster.
With this new hiring in mind, it’s easy to wonder if the new head coach will want some of his players brought in to help him win in Toronto. Which brings us to…….
The St. Louis Blues
Here’s the biggest issue when you speak about the St. Louis Blues, the Leafs need defense and the top 4 defenders on the Blues roster are all locked up solid. There are 3 players on the Blues’ blueline that are locked up for at least 3 more years and make $6.5M a piece, they are Colton Parayko, Justin Faulk and Torey Krug, while Nick Leddy, who is signed for 2 more seasons, carries a $4M caphit. Those players make up St. Louis’ top 4 defense and played between 22-24 minutes a night this season.
I’m sure Berube and the Leafs would be happy to add any one of those skaters, but each one carries a full NTC for at least one more season, which means it’s up to them if they want to leave town or not. Meanwhile, they don’t have any bluechip defensive prospects, with Theo Lindstein being their lone standout in that category, but they could offer up one of Dalibor Dvorsky (10th overall, 2023) or Otto Stenberg (25th overall, 2023) if the Leafs are interested in centre prospects. Jimmy Snuggerud, Matthew Kessel, Zachary Bolduc, Alexei Toropchenko and Jake Neighbours are also prospects and young players that could be of interest.
The bulk of any St. Louis trade could come in the form of useable forwards, which is something the Leafs could use, but is less of an area of concern than most, and goaltending, which is a definite area of need.
In true “what’s this dude been smoking?” fashion, we’ll toss out a trade scenario without thinking it through:
To STL: Pavel Buchnevich, Kevin Hayes (50% retained, for a 2nd time!!), Joel Hofer, Otto Stenberg, 1st (2025, top 10 protected)
To TOR: Mitch Marner, Nicholas Robertson
Why this works for St. Louis: The issue with the Blues hasn’t been keeping the puck out of the net, they’re middle of the pack with a 3.02 GA/GP. The issue has been scoring goals, where they rank 24th in the NHL with 2.85 GF/GP. Their powerplay was in the bottom 1/3rd of the league as well, which is certainly something that Marner and Robertson can help with. They have to give up Buchnevich in the deal, who is one of their most used forwards on the penalty kill, but Marner can cover those minutes as well so I’m sure it isn’t something that would stand in the way of them making this deal. In a nutshell, the Blues would have no reason NOT to make this trade.
Why this works for Toronto: The 3C position has been undervalued in Toronto for far too long. The only time the Leafs made it past the 1st round of the playoffs was when they traded for Ryan O’Reilly and he anchored the 3rd line. Goaltending, defense and centre depth are important and this pushes them towards building a team that covers those bases. By bringing in Kevin Hayes they’d be adding a 3C for the next 2 seasons on a steal of a contract that would carry a $1.7M caphit. He’s 6’5″, is good on the draw, can provide depth scoring and is good defensively…. there’s nothing more to ask of a 3C.
Pavel Buchnevich is an all-situation winger that has had terrific offensive numbers over the past couple of years. The 6’3″ 200lb Russian is exiting his prime but still has a lot to offer. He’d replace some of the scoring that Marner provides, while drawing in on the PK as well. He has 1 more year on his contract, so he’ll need a raise a year from now, but that’s a problem for next season.
While most would suggest Jordan Binnington as the goalie to target in this deal, I honestly believe his temper and attitude aren’t a fit for the Leafs. He’s been known to go off the rails and besides his miracle run to the Cup, he’s been an average goaltender at best. Joel Hofer offers more upside, in my opinion and could split the crease with Joseph Woll next season.
Otto Stenberg is a centre that I wrote about ahead of last season’s draft and liked a lot. A two-way pivot that was a little undersized (5’11” 180lbs) but projects as a 2C in the NHL. He’d offer another possible replacement for John Tavares in a couple of years. If you’re not high on this pick, switch him out with whatever prospect makes you happy. This is supposed to be fun!!
As has been the case with other fantasy trades I’ve made, a 1st round pick next year is a great idea considering the Leafs’ lack of selections. It’s crazy, I know, but in order to keep your prospect pipeline flowing you need to take players at the draft. Shocking!!
All in all this trade would open some capspace to allow the Leafs to improve their blueline in free agency, would answer some goaltending questions in the immediate future, would provide depth at the forward position and add some prospects and picks for the future. An all-around good deal for the Leafs, while providing a big boost to St. Louis’ offense. This is possibly the most win-win deal we’ve looked at yet.
Last note: Most people talk about Colton Parayko in this deal, which would be a great addition for the Leafs, but he was drafted by St. Louis, has never played anywhere else and holds a full NTC. I simply don’t think he’s an option via trade at this time.