Okay, maybe it isn’t the most “I told you so” moment of all time. Throughout the summer I told myself that the team that Brad Treliving constructed could make the playoffs if a few things happened.
One of those things was the continued solid play from what looked to be one of the deepest bluelines the Leafs possessed since Auston Matthews joined the NHL. Combine that with a goalie tandem that was arguably one of the better 1-2 punches in the league and you could buy into the idea that the Leafs would, once again, be among the best in the GA/GP category (8th in 2025). Instead, what the fans have been delivered is the 6th worst team in the NHL under that column, as their defensive group scrambles around every night in an incoherent mess. That group is being lead by the longest tenured Maple Leaf at the moment, Morgan Rielly, who is also just 264 games away from playing more games for Toronto than any other player in the history of the organization. Honestly, I don’t think he’ll hit the mark. The patience of Leafs Nation has run thin, as his poor defense is one of the driving forces that will undoubtedly end with the Leafs missing the playoffs for the first time since the 2019/20 season. It isn’t simply Rielly that is hurting the back end. The loss of Chris Tanev, the fact that Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz have only dressed in the same game twice and the continued regression of Brandon Carlo have all resulted in a team that simply can’t keep the puck out of their own net. Jake McCabe, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Troy Stecher may be the lone bright spots on defense and even they have their faults.
Something else that clearly needed to happen was Auston Matthews proving to the world that he could still be an elite player without Mitch Marner. While he is on pace for over 40 goals once again, he’s also 4th on his own team in points, behind William Nylander, John Tavares and the young Matthew Knies. To say that his season to date has been disappointing is an understatement. A player that has hit the 100pt plateau twice in his career and is still in his prime, Matthews is expected to lead the team offensively, but instead appears to be simply going through the motions. His leadership skills aren’t apparent, his killer instinct is missing, he lacks passion and if I were to guess, the idea of following Marner out the door is now on his mind more than ever. I say it’s about time to ask for a list of teams that he’d be willing to go to and grant that wish, as they should have done for Mitch.
Lastly, in order to have a successful season, they needed bounce back efforts from a selection of depth players. Mattias Maccelli was brought in to provide some of the playmaking that would be lost with Marner. He produced 49pts in 64 games and 57pts in 82 games in Arizona, before dropping to just 18pts in 55 games during their inaugural season in Utah. So far this year he has 20pts in 41 games, which would be a 40pt pace over a full schedule. That isn’t exactly him returning to his productive ways, even if he is producing more than he did in his final season in Utah. Dakota Joshua had 32pts in 63 games in Vancouver, before regressing to just 14pts in 57 games. The hope was that he could bring a physical brand of hockey to Toronto and return to being a productive skater on the score sheet. Instead, with 10pts in 32 games and largely having been invisible in his time here, he is floating his way towards being an asset that is untradeable. Max Domi signed a single year deal in Toronto and provided 47pts in 80 games in a depth role. Outside of a few games on the top line when they were in need of a shake up, he was largely a 3rd line player and a productive one. He then signed an extension and fell to just 33pts in 74 games the following season. Now, with 25pts in 50 games and a -17 rating, where he is playing a ton of minutes alongside Auston Matthews, it’s clear that Domi isn’t about to bounce back anywhere, no matter the role he is given. Scott Laughton was a 40pt player in Philadelphia, give or take a few points. Since being acquired at last years trade deadline he has been anything but productive. With just 4pts in 20 games after the deadline, followed by 2 assists in 13 playoff games, his production had many stating that he spent his entire career in Philadelphia and it’s not easy to switch teams and systems quickly. The idea was that with a full camp and after settling in in Toronto, he’d bounce back. This season he has produced 10pts in 34 games and while he brings energy and leadership to the group, a lot of the time they simply need more goals.
The fact is that the Leafs haven’t gotten a bounce back season from anybody. Their defense has massively regressed and their goalies can’t keep up with the messy system in front of them. The dump and chase system isn’t working and neither is their powerplay. The coaches have refused to adjust and the management group has backed themselves into a corner in terms of no longer having any assets to deal to improve the team. The only thing that does appear to be working is the penalty kill, which is ranked 4th in the NHL. “Yay,” I guess?
What was also readily apparent by the 1st day of November was that none of these things were going to line up and the team was going to have a terrible season. The fact that William Nylander has missed 15 games to date and is still the clubs leading point getter is a testament to their inability to produce offense as a team. They have yet to act like a unified group of players, instead playing like a group of individuals, which has been an issue for years now.
Many of us have called for a re-tool for a while now and, above all else, that’s the “I told you so” that matters. This group of star players don’t have the backbone to carry a team on their backs. They are immensely talented and I’m sure they’re nice people (when they aren’t flipping you off), but they’re in the business of winning games, not being talented and nice. Now is the time to flip (off) the stars (34, 88, 44) for younger talent and try again, because continuing on this path is a fools games that will end with these players walking for nothing, just as Marner did.
Game Day Primer
The Buffalo Sabres aren’t the pushover that they have been the past few years. They have a mobile defensive group, solid goaltending and depth scoring, none of which the Leafs currently possess. They sit 3rd in the Atlantic division and are well on their way to making the playoffs for the first time since the 2010-11 season, which stands as the longest playoff drought in NHL history. They’re playing with a chip on their shoulder at the moment, winning their past 3 games and going 8-3-1 in the month of January.
Compare that to Toronto, who have lost 4 in a row and are 1-4-2 in their past 7 and you see two teams going in vastly different directions.
The Sabres have a ton of talent in their early to mid 20s throughout their lineup, including Rasmus Dahlin, Josh Doan, Ryan McLeod, Jack Quinn, Matias Samuelsson, Bowen Byram, Zach Benson, Peyton Krebs, Owen Power and more. They are the youngest team in the NHL and have a ton of room to grow.
Meanwhile, the Leafs are one of the oldest NHL teams and are quickly trending down. They’ve hemorrhaged young talent for years and it’s finally coming back to bite them in the ass. That’s not to say that they can’t win tonight, but if they want to come away with a W they’ll have to do far more than they have during their current home stand, where they haven’t won a single game.
That is just their way of saying “Thank you Leafs Nation” before giving you the middle finger.