This has been a tough offseason so far in terms of keeping the give-a-shit meter above zero and it’s just begun. I’m dreading the long summer ahead because I’m so sure that, once again, the lip service provided by Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving, when he says the “DNA” of this team needs to change is nothing more than that, a catchy quote to keep the faith alive amongst Leafs Nation and provide the media with titles for their articles.
We were promised big changes last season as well, if you recall.
While the defense was certainly overhauled, with the additions of Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Brandon Carlo over the past season, as well as the continued development of Simon Benoit, the forward group was left mostly intact. In fact, over the past calendar year the only additions up front have been Max Pacioretty, Steven Lorentz and Scott Laughton. Of those three I will readily admit that two have lived up to expectations, while Scott Laughton is still signed and has the opportunity to bring more than he did this year. Two out of three ain’t bad, as Meatloaf once informed us.
The question on everybody’s lips is “where do they go from here?”
We’ll start with the elephant in the room, Mitch Marner.
The reported stance of the Leafs brass is that they want clarification on the Marner situation. In other words, they want to plan their next steps with as much information as possible and are waiting to see if Marner wants to stay in Toronto or not.
If they truly want to change the fabric of the team, then how does that happen if they intend to keep Marner in the fold? With him, alongside William Nylander (NMC) and Auston Matthews (NMC), the team would be mostly unchanged at the top of the lineup, which is exactly where the problems lie. If not Marner, then who are they choosing to move on from in order to create meaningful change? John Tavares? While the former captain also failed to meet expectations at the end of their 2nd round series vs. the Florida Panthers, he was/is far from the main problem. He quit on the New York Islanders to join his boyhood team and live out a lifelong dream. He also scored the winning goal in overtime to give this group their first playoff series win in decades against the Tampa Bay Lightning a couple of years ago. He isn’t exactly Mr. Clutch, but he is a good veteran, a good leader, a fantastic 2nd line centre and has openly stated his desire to get a contract signed that will keep him with the Leafs for as long as possible. If you’re of the opinion that Tavares should walk AS WELL as Marner, I can respect that, but I would have questions about the viability of next years lineup if you let a near PPG centre walk for nothing. Most of those questions revolve around the fact that there aren’t really any other PPG centres available via free agency and the cost to trade for one would be immense. But I digress…..
The only other top 6 free agent is RFA Matthew Knies. It appears to be a unanimous opinion amongst management, fans, teammates and even Knies himself that he shouldn’t go anywhere, so I won’t waste words discussing that.
The point I’m trying to make is that there are three directions for the team to go if they truly want a meaningful shake up.
The first is to let Marner walk, making whether he wants to return or not redundant. In this scenario you probably don’t need to let Tavares walk, but you most certainly could include that option as well, depending on how dramatic you’re feeling that day. This option has many asking if it’s even enough change.
The second is to sign Marner, while simultaneously demanding (not asking) that one or more of your players that possess a no-move clause waive that clause to join the team(s) of their choosing. There are just 3 players that they could move that would mean registering meaningful change and they are Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Morgan Rielly. If we start by talking about team captain Auston Matthews, it will be a short conversation. He’s the type of player that you build around and they have, the problem is they didn’t build it correctly. William Nylander and Morgan Rielly, on the other hand, while being greatly talented, aren’t players that are impossible to replace.
Which brings us to the third and final direction the team should consider and the one I’d fully support. Not only should they ask Nylander and Rielly to consider moving on if Marner re-signs, but they should do just that regardless of his decision and not even consider Marner as an option. The Leafs walked into the 2024/25 season with the “Big 5” under contract and if it were up to me, the only players from that 5 that would return for the 2025/26 season would be Auston Matthews and John Tavares and here’s why….
Building a true contender is a very difficult job. However, we’ve all listened to the men that have done it enough over the years to know what the simple blueprint is; you build from the net out and centres are important. The Leafs, for some reason, started by building up their forward group without any regard for defense or goaltending and, again for some unknown reason, put great emphasis on having strong wingers. Brad Treliving, to his credit, has settled the goaltending position for at least the time being and has steadied the blueline. Now it’s time to properly fix the centre position and then add the appropriate wingers afterwards.
I know what you’re thinking, they aren’t that far from having a viable centre group, especially if John Tavares returns. This is likely combined with some type of “don’t throw the baby out with the bath water” saying’s. Why move on from Marner and Nylander in order to fix your centres, while moving on from Morgan Rielly when the defense has been as good as we’ve seen it in years?
The answer is simple. The team needs a change in their DNA and so very many of you are right, simply stepping away from Marner isn’t enough to accomplish that. Allowing Marner to walk is adjacent to having your entire foot, up past the ankle turn black from frostbite like on some old western movie and cutting off a couple of toes in order to fix it. Sorry bub, you’re going to lose a lot more of your leg than that, or else it’s your life. Walking away from Marner, while trading Nylander and Rielly, is representative of cutting deep enough to ensure that you fix the problem for good. It would also, depending on the return via trade, bolster the centre position and forward depth.
Which brings us back to our catchy quote about the change in DNA. Have any of you reading this, for even a second, thought that it’s at all possible that Treliving approaches Nylander and Rielly about waiving their trade protection? I know I haven’t. Furthermore, do any of you doubt the fact that the Leafs front office would bring Marner back if he agreed to return? There’s no doubt in my mind that they would welcome him back with open arms and even more, they would load up his next contract to ensure that it happens. Lastly, have any of you stopped to wonder, not what they should do, but what they will do? My honest guess is that Marner walks of his own free will, the team re-signs most of their forward group (sans Pacioretty and possibly Robertson) and they use the capspace they have to sign a couple of wingers, such as Brad Marchand and/or Patrick Kane and possible a veteran centre (Jonathan Toews anyone?). But that’s not what they want to do, that’s what they may be forced to do. What they want to do, by all accounts, is run it back.
So, if they aren’t willing to move on from the players that have continually failed in the most pivotal moments and they would welcome back the player that has been the poster boy for big-pay-little-results, then where is this DNA change coming from? Because it certainly isn’t going to be provided via veteran has-been’s.
The doctor has recommended major surgery. They need to stop trying to use simple bandages.