The next hot trade topic that’s stirring in Leaf Land, now that Timothy Liljegren has moved on to San Jose, is revolving around winger Nicholas Robertson. After a summer trade request, contract hold out and eventually signing due to his new head coach, Craig Berube, reaching out and convincing him that he’d get an opportunity to play, Robertson has rewarded the franchise with 1 goal and 0 assists in 16 games. He’s averaging a little more than 12 minutes per night, with over 1 minute per night of that coming with the man advantage. While he isn’t playing top 6 minutes, he’s playing regularly and has, at times, gotten to share the ice with other skilled players. I’ve witnessed some say that he isn’t being offered a proper opportunity, but this is how opportunities work and he’s simply not cashing in on his.
Take Bobby McMann, who scored 2 goals against the Edmonton Oilers last night, as a prime example. He entered the league playing on the 3rd and 4th lines, where he caught the eye of the fans and coaches by throwing his weight around and eventually worked his way up the lineup. From there he has managed to continue to bring an energetic game and has 21 goals in 74 games between this season and last. At 28 years old and, up until last season, being an afterthought as a possible NHL goal scorer, McMann took a small opportunity and ran with it. If, when Robertson spoke about wanting a better opportunity over the summer, he meant being launched into the top 6 without earning it, then his head is in the wrong place and he needs to adjust his approach.
With his lack of scoring comes another wrench in the gears. It was reported that the market for Robertson over the summer simply wasn’t there. With some significant injuries in his past, a lack of production and small stature, other teams simply weren’t willing to ante up based on his potential. Now, with 1 goal on the season while playing a regular shift, that market is likely smaller than ever. If he were placed on waivers it’s likely that, because of his cheap contract, a rebuilding team would take a flyer on him, but it’s unlikely that those same teams would pay any type of valuable asset to obtain him via trade. At this point, from a fans perspective, you have to hope that he can figure something out on the ice, because the bottom 6 is in desperate need of scoring power and they have a young player in the mix that is bringing no value to the club.
He isn’t alone in terms of not being able to produce in a secondary scoring role. Max Domi, who hasn’t registered a point in 13 games, is more concerning to me than Robertson, if for no other reason than his 4 year, $3.75M per season contract and the fact that he has played enough in the top 6 that not producing is beyond unjustified. He did show some jump last night while playing against the Oilers, but these players were earmarked for the 3rd line at the beginning of the year and were expected to improve the teams depth scoring from there and they haven’t come close to keeping up their end of the bargain.
While I’ve picked on Domi and Robertson, the issue of depth scoring goes beyond them, as David Kampf, Pontus Holmberg and Ryan Reaves have combined for 0 goals and 6 assists so far this year. The point is that there are far too many passengers on the team at the moment. The forward group is missing Auston Matthews, Max Pacioretty and Calle Jarnkrok, but the players that are being used aren’t taking advantage of their opportunities and something needs to give.
It’s quite possible that better centre depth could help the entire situation, but the Leafs have cap issues that would need to be dealt with if they intend to add a player at the deadline. Last night they ran Tavares, Domi, Kampf and Lorentz as their centres and you have to think that management realizes that it’s not good enough. Domi is more effective on the wing, while Kampf and Lorentz are 4th line pivots. The only genuine top 9 centre there was Tavares and to his credit he has done a very good job since Matthews has been out. With 9 goals and 17pts in 18 games, Tavares is having a bounce back year and has rekindled his chemistry with Mitch Marner. While I’d expect Marner to be reunited with Matthews when he returns, I think it’s worth leaving the him with Tavares for a while, as he appears to have a different approach to the game when he’s away from Matthews. He’s the main catalyst on a line without Matthews, which means he’s shooting more and is more assertive all over the ice. His play against McDavid defensively was also very impressive, regardless of the fact that McDavid managed to produce 1 goal and 2pts on the night. This version of Marner is the one the team needs in the playoffs and this version always seems to shine the brightest when he isn’t on Matthews’ flank.
In the meantime, the search for another centre should continue. Some possible options that I’ve seen floated around include Brock Nelson from the New York Islanders, Mikhail Granlund from the San Jose Sharks and, as incredibly unlikely as it seems, Evgeni Malkin of the Pittsburgh Penguins.
I’ll start with my take on Malkin, because it’s short and to the point. I believe that as long as Crosby is in Pittsburgh, his long time running mates, Malkin, Rust and Letang, in particular, will refuse to waive their trade protection. I believe that if/when change comes to the Penguins, it will be in the form of moving Erik Karlsson, Ryan Graves or some depth pieces.
The issues I perceive with targeting players such as Granlund and Nelson are about affordability, both in terms of the assets it would take to trade for them, as well as the cap implications moving forward. Granlund (8G, 19pts, 19GP) would likely cost a high pick and good prospect, considering his production over the past couple of seasons, versatility on the ice and penalty killing and defensive acumen. The Sharks have also used all 3 of their salary retention spots, so the Leafs would have to either fit his entire $5M caphit onto the roster or pay another team to retain salary for the Sharks, costing extra assets. His return to top 6 production also raises the question of what his next contract may look like and if the Leafs are in a position to add another high priced forward. If the answer to that question is no, then maybe they’re better off looking elsewhere for a solution to their 3C issues.
Likewise, Nelson (7G, 10pts, 18GP) would likely garner a fairly high return for the Islanders based on his career’s body of work. With his size, production and the fact that he produces well in the playoffs, he’s likely the most ideal player I can imagine the Leafs trading for. However, at 33 years old, is his early dip in production a sign of things to come and are the Leafs willing to take the risk of re-signing him.
Just a thought, but would Ryan O’Reilly welcome a return to Toronto, as well as reuniting with the coach that lead him to his only Stanley Cup? He was good here and the team can use that type of leadership. He stated that he loved his time with the Leafs and that leaving to avoid the spotlight was overblown, which makes me wonder what he didn’t talk about in terms of choosing to play in Nashville instead of Toronto, who offered a similar contract if he would remain a Leaf. O’Reilly lacks trade protection, according to puckpedia.com, so the decision may ultimately be out of his hands.
The real seller for me on ROR would be the fact that he has term. According to Elliotte Friedman it’s possible that the cap ceiling will go beyond what was previously thought. As the story goes the salary cap was scheduled to go up to about $92.5M after this season and take an even bigger jump the following year. However, it’s possible that they may bump the ceiling up to $95-97M this year instead, with it taking another jump the following year, with that jump being less than originally expected.
To me, what this means for any contender is that trading for term could quickly change the layout of their rosters over the next few seasons, as the newly acquired player/contract will take up even less of a percentage of the cap. It’s an opportunity they should look to take advantage of and with that in mind I would avoid the Granlund and Nelson’s of the world and instead look to players such as Ryan O’Reilly, that have a few years left on their contracts.
Some possible options include Ryan Strome, J.T. Compher and Andrew Copp, with 2+ years on their deals after this one, while Boone Jenner (LTIR at the moment), Kevin Hayes and Jean-Gabriel Pageau have one more season on their deals after this one. As the season progresses and more teams begin to fade out of the playoff picture the list will grow, of course, but the end result has to be adding a centre to the team.
With the possibility of the cap rising quickly, would you risk overpaying Matthew Knies in order to get more term? He’s currently on pace for over 30 goals and over 50pts. He’s taken a big step forward this season as he has been throwing his weight around, contributing positively on the penalty kill and is producing in the top six, all of which the Leafs are in desperate need of. He just turned 23 years old, which makes me wonder if a 7-8 year contract in the $7-8M range would look fantastic 3+ years from now.
Staying on the subject of new contracts, Mitch Marner is UFA at the end of the season and I’d be shocked if I found out that management intends to allow him to walk. Are we finally going to see one of the stars on this team leave a little bit on the table? If so, how much would that be? For a player that is currently tied for 9th in the NHL in points, is a capable penalty killer and appears to have fit within Berube’s system nicely, you know retaining him won’t be cheap. With that said, I think if you go beyond $12.5M per season it’s going to leave some fans feeling sour, even if that’s not overly bad based on contract percentages.
Darren Ferris, his agent, is known for dragging out negotiations, so I don’t expect this to be resolved before the season ends. If the cap officially goes to $95M or more and they use that to calculate a percentage for his next contract things could quickly go down hill. Marner’s current contract paid him 13.37% of the cap when it was signed. With a $95M ceiling that percentage would carry a caphit of $12.7M. If they expect to take a higher percentage, closer to Auston Matthews’ 15.06%, things go from bad to worse. With 14% being an example, the AAV goes up to $13.3M. At 14.75% you’re looking at a touch over $14M.
On the flip side, if he were to take a smaller percentage, one closer to William Nylander’s 13.07%, that would mean a $12.42M caphit with a $95M cap ceiling. Going purely by percentages that’s the likely range for his contract. $12.42M representing the low end “he took a discount” number, with $14M being the “okay, I’m not as good as Matthews, but I’m not that much worse, either” number.
Official prediction? Max term with a $12.75M caphit, regardless of where the cap ceiling lands. That’s approximately 13.42% of a $95M cap, which would mean a raise to his caphit and his percentage of the total cap, while also being less than Matthews in both categories. Being less than $2M more than his current caphit, that number will be absorbed over the next few years and should allow the team to add depth to the roster moving forward.
The final contract to talk about is John Tavares. The former captain just turned 34 years of age and is going to want to win a Cup before he rides off into the sunset. It’s impossible to lock down numbers because this negotiation will be more about “lets finish what you came here for, what’s the smallest number you’ll accept?” than it will be about landing on a number that fully represents his value on the ice. He’s still producing above what’s expected of a 2C in the NHL, so any number that is below $8M is fair for the team and him, in my opinion. Every penny that he leaves on the table can be seen to go directly to another 2C/3C option, so I truly hope he takes a massive haircut.
Final thought for the week: The Leafs are now 1pt out of 1st place in the Atlantic, although 1st place Florida has a game in hand. With 3 games over the next 13 nights, they have time to rest, heal, practice and work on the details of their game. Florida will play 6 games in that same time frame, with one of them being against the Leafs, so I expect them to pull away in the standings a little bit. The battle for 1st has to be at the forefront this season though, as part of their preparation for the playoffs. Their sense of urgency has been non-existent at times, so placing first in the division should be a goal to work for, as that battle will only intensify as they move closer to the playoffs, making those lacklustre games unacceptable. In previous years they fell out of that race long before the trade deadline, so if they can stay in the mix and push each other to obtain that goal it may give purpose to a meaningless accomplishment.