As we continue to contemplate where Marner could end up playing hockey next season, one thing is obvious, there are no perfect trade partners out there. Does the team need and want Mitch Marner? If so, is he willing to go there? If he is, does that team have the assets and capspace to trade for him, while remaining competitive at the end of it all? In my opinion you can answer yes to all of those questions when we talk about the next team.
Dallas Stars
The Stars are still in the fight for the Stanley Cup. How that turns out for them could determine how willing they’d be to trade for Marner. If they fall short it’s possible that they could consider a big swing to finish the job. If they win it all, well, they may just look to re-sign who they can, promote the kids that are pushing for playing time and trust the process that got them this far. Then again, maybe they look at this as an opportunity to reload and try again.
The biggest issue facing the Stars in a potential deal for Marner is the same as it will be for most teams, a lack of capspace. While they can technically fit him in, it might come at the cost of their current depth on top of the assets they’d have to give up to trade for him. This makes you wonder if a third team might be warranted to facilitate a trade. On July 1st the Leafs will pay out the final signing bonus on Marners deal to the tune of $7.25M, after that he’s owed just $775K in salary for the 2024/45 season. This is huge for the Leafs because retained salary is based off of the percentage of the remaining salary in a contract, rather than cash retained. This means that if a 3rd team retained 50% of Marner’s salary on or after July 1st, they would be retaining on the $775K salary remaining on his deal.
Essentially, a rebuilding team such as the Chicago Blackhawks or the Anaheim Ducks could find themselves with a caphit of $5.4515M, while only having to pay out $387,500*. That may actually help the Blackhawks, rather than hinder them, but would certainly lower the cost of that transaction.
This would help a Dallas trade in particular, as they are waiting for some undesirable contracts to come off the books next year. After that, with a rising cap and a little more wiggle room, fitting Marner in shouldn’t be a problem. Jamie Benn, Ryan Suter and Radek Faksa aren’t exactly living up to their contracts and all of their current deals expire after next season. Meanwhile, Tyler Seguin has 3 more years after this one and carries a $9.85M caphit with a full NMC. I’m sure management there will be happy to see that number erased from the ledger. While the Leafs could help by taking on Faksa and/or Dadonov, assuming Toronto isn’t on their shortlist of teams they aren’t willing to play for, Benn and Suter have no-move clauses and would likely prefer to steer clear of the Toronto spotlight.
In short, the capspace issue is one that can be averted. They simply need to approach it with a little bit of creativity.
A random trade offer that helps the Leafs in the future, while also giving them the capspace to attract free agents:
To DAL: Mitch Marner, Nicholas Robertson, Connor Timmins
To TOR: Lian Bichsel, Mavrik Bourque, Radek Faksa, Evgeni Dadonov, 1st (2025)
To CHI: 5th (DAL – 2025) Chicago Retains 50% of Marners caphit
Why this works for Dallas: If the Stars win the Cup, it’s possible that Joe Pavelski calls it a career. They’ve gotten tremendous production from Pavelski, but you can’t outrace father time forever. If he does return it will likely be on a very cheap contract and with a slightly reduced role. The Stars may look to replace his production and Marner would do that and more. With Jamie Benn (34) and Tyler Seguin (32) on the wrong side of 30 as well, offensive production could fall even further. Dallas was the 3rd most dangerous regular season team offensively this season and they may want to keep it that way. Taking Marner from the 2nd most dangerous regular season team would certainly help them reach that goal. Meanwhile, Lian Bichsel didn’t play any NHL games this year, while Mavrik Bourque played in just 1. While both prospects are very good, they haven’t factored into the success that Dallas has had, which could mean that Dallas can see a future without either prospect, while still maintaining success. Meanwhile, the lofty caphit predictions that surround Marner’s next contract could be drawn back quite a bit when you consider that the state of Texas doesn’t charge income tax. If they can negotiate a deal before a trade, Dallas shouldn’t have any problem dealing from a very good prospect pool to land a player that consistent produced 90+ points during the regular season. The fact that they land Brother Robertson and a depth defender, both of whom are/will be on cheap deals is simply gravy on top.
Why this works for Toronto: While some people are asking for a talent-for-talent trade, I like the idea of trading for very good prospects and allowing them to develop into very good NHLers. Meanwhile, the capspace in this trade (Toronto would open over $5M in capspace) could see the Leafs gain the ability to sign 1 or 2 of the better UFA defenders that are set to hit the market on July 1st, as well as retain the services of Tyler Bertuzzi and/or Max Domi.
Aside from the extra capspace, the Leafs would add prospects in positions of need. Lian Bichsel is a 6’6″ 230lb LD that plays a physical style of hockey. He’ll turn 20 years old this week and could break into the NHL as soon as this coming season. The Switzerland native is known for his defensive game but also makes a good first pass. He’s exactly what the Leafs need in a defensive prospect after years of drafting nothing but puck moving defenders that haven’t panned out.
Mavrik Bourque is a natural centre that plays a two-way game and produced 26 goals and 77pts in 71 AHL games this season. The Leafs are in need of a future #2C to replace John Tavares, who is getting long in the tooth. It’s possible that Bourque could be that player, but for now can line up behind Matthews and Tavares, which would allow him to continue to develop his game at the NHL level.
Radek Faksa is a lot like David Kampf in the sense that he is a penalty killing 4C that’s good on the draw. The Leafs’ penalty kill is in desperate need of improvement and I think Faksa would help with that. He’s overpaid for the role, also like Kampf, but if the Leafs could improve their PK% to a respectable number I believe it would be money well spent.
Evgeni Dadonov is a depth scorer at this point in his career. He could lineup with Bourque and Jarnkrok as a scoring 3rd line next year, in theory. The Leafs lack of scoring in the playoffs was a big issue this year, but Dadonov would help with that issue.
Lastly, the Leafs would receive a 1st round pick in a year where they don’t have a 1st…. or a 2nd…. or a 3rd….. or a 4th round selection. If anybody feels that they don’t need to recoup some picks in the 2025 draft, I wholeheartedly disagree.
In short, the Leafs would get some depth pieces, two former 1st round prospects that project to be better NHLers than the young players they’d send the other way, a high pick in a draft that they lack picks in and some capspace to sign their own UFAs and a blueliner or two. All in all, it would be a tidy bit of business.
Final Thoughts: Two years from now, if this deal was made, the Leafs could be looking at a situation where they have Bichsel on the blueline with Rielly, McCabe, Benoit and whichever free agents they can manage to sign, while their forward group could still feature Matthews, Nylander Domi, Bertuzzi, Tavares etc, with a productive young group of Easton Cowan, Fraser Minten and Mavrik Bourque on top of it. That, in my opinion, would be a very impressive group of players and a true Stanley Cup contender.